Bracketology: NCAA Tournament Sleepers with Big Upset Potential

Given the unpredictability of this college basketball season, every team in the NCAA tournament should be on upset alert. There will undoubtedly be a lot of sleepers with big upset potential, but determining which will have the biggest impact isn’t an easy task.

Filling out a tournament bracket isn’t about seeding and rankings, though, and understanding which teams present unfavorable matchups is crucial to predicting the outcome of the tournament.

We’ll take a look at a trio of teams that will present matchup problems for every team they might face in the tournament. All three should be considered sleepers with the potential to make a deep tournament run.

 

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Butler Bulldogs

With its recent success in the Big Dance, Brad Stevens’ squad no longer deserves the “Cinderella” title, but the Bulldogs certainly aren’t favorites to make a deep run this year.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects Butler as a No. 6 seed in the East bracket. Should that be the case, Butler could end up with matchups against New Mexico and Miami on the horizon, and neither pairing would suggest much of a chance of a title run.

No team can be considered a giant killer without first cutting down a couple of bean stocks.

Butler is No. 19 in the RPI rankings with a 4-4 record against top-25 RPI teams. The 29th-toughest schedule in the country is a pretty good indication of what the 26-8 Bulldogs can do against quality competition, and they have the pieces in place to win at least a couple games against highly ranked opponents in the tournament.

Senior guard Rotnei Clark is averaging 16.7 points per game this season, setting the tone for an offense with plenty of balance. Senior center Andrew Smith and sophomore forward Roosevelt Jones have combined for 21.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game this season as part of a starting lineup that features five players averaging 9.9 points per game or better.

Balance, experience and strong defense are the primary components for a good tournament showing. Butler has all three in spades, and the Bulldogs should put their portion of the bracket on upset alert early in the tournament.

 

Belmont Bruins

Nothing levels the playing field of the NCAA tournament quite like an explosive offense. The Belmont Bruins are ranked just 120th in scoring defense, yet they’re outscoring opponents by more than 12 points per game this season.

The Bruins will be a dangerous team in the tournament if they can get hot early. With the fourth-best field-goal percentage in the nation (49.4 percent) and four key contributors shooting better than 37 percent from behind the arc, no team matches up well against Belmont.

Senior guards Ian Clark has both the skill and experience to be the face of a Belmont team poised for a deep run in the tournament. Belmont’s leading scorer is averaging 18.1 points per game on 54.1 percent shooting from the field and 46.3 percent from behind the arc.

Every Cinderella team has a leader who can knock down the big shot and set the tone throughout the tournament. The Bruins have one, and they’ll be a fun team to watch this year, especially against highly ranked opponents.

 

Iona Gaels

Iona has some big holes on the defensive end of the floor, but the No. 1 offense in the country has offset those issues most of the year. Given that the Gaels average 80.7 points per game this season, there aren’t many teams that can hang with them in a fast-paced affair.

Any team with a senior guard averaging 23 points per game is a dangerous team come tournament time. Lamont Jones has been spectacular this year, and his growth in the last four years is a testament to the quality pieces he has around him at the offensive end.

Paired with junior guard Sean Armand (16.6 PPG), Iona fields one of the most explosive backcourts in the country. If the Gaels are fortunate enough to match up with a team that doesn’t run the floor well in transition, a big upset could be on the horizon.

Iona is likely to be a No. 13 or 14 seed in the tournament, and its initial matchup may be the team’s biggest test until the Sweet 16. With an efficient and explosive transition offense and some big-time scorers in their backcourt, don’t be surprised to see the Gaels advance past their first matchup in upset fashion en route to a Sweet 16 appearance.

Check back regularly during the tournament for live bracket updates, found here.