UFC 97: Everyones' Favorite Prognosticator

That's right ladies and gentleman, I'm doing another preview! I hope this doesn't turn out to be another well-documented example of how I know nothing about fighting.

I'm just going to do the main card, because the undercard is filled with overrated has-beens and guys I've never heard of (just last week, TJ Grant asked me if I wanted my sub toasted). Denis Kang, David Loiseau, Ed Herman, Nathan Quarry, Ryo Chonan...all of this would be fine if it were 2005.

Just had to get a little dig in there before I go down in flames like Bill Shatner in the first Star Trek movie. Without further ado, let the carnage begin!

Brian Stann vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

I don't know much about Stann, and all I know about KS is that, although he's somewhat of a stiff, he's a good grappler. Also, there's no way he learned how to spell his name before the age of five. That's a lot of Z's. For absolutely no reason, I'm going to say KS wins by submission. That's why I make the big bucks.

Steve Cantwell vs. Luiz Cane

Love this matchup. Love it to pieces. Cantwell has shown that he has knockout power, but he's fighting a seasoned Muay Thai guy with a sizable reach advantage who can take it as well as dish it out.

My dislike for Cantwell set aside, this really is a tough matchup for him. Either he comes out overzealous, swings for the fences, and gets caught, or he paces himself, swings for the fences later in the fight, and gets caught. It's really one or the other.

Cane might have to take one or two early, but expect him to weather the storm and TKO Cantwell at the end of round one.

Cheick Kongo vs. Antoni Hardonk

Whoever wins this fight will have to be considered a contender for the heavyweight belt. Even though I think Kongo has a more complete set of skills, I'm taking Hardonk. He's got to fight smart, though.

First, if you put two relatively equal strikers together, which these guys are, generally the guy with the longer reach is going to want to keep his distance while the other tries to get inside. I think the opposite is true here.

Although Antoni is solid in the clinch, he should avoid it. He doesn't want to take any "accidental" nut shots, and he definitely doesn't want to get taken down, because the Igor Vovchanchyn Memorial "Tie you up from the bottom and wait for a stand up" Guard can only take you so far. I could absolutely see Hardonk grounded and pounded into a Dutch Space Cake.

The real question is going to be answered when Kongo takes one or two of those hellacious leg kicks; will his striking pedigree make him want to beat Antoni on the feet, or will he keep his ego in check and go for the ground game, where he is clearly better?I'm banking on the fact that Kongo doesn't seem like a guy who would keep his ego in check. Hardonk by decision.

Chuck Liddell vs. Mauricio Rua

As one dimensional as Liddell is, he's a terrible matchup for the 28-going-on-45 Mauricio Rua, who has seemingly turned into MMA's Penny Hardaway, or "The Guy Who Peaked Too Early".

Rua likes to come charging in with punches and knees, and Liddell likes to catch guys when they come charging in with punches and knees. You do the math. Also, Rua will go for a ton of takedowns, but I don't see him grounding Liddell for any extended period.

I don't think Liddell will knock him out, though; I see a sloppy borefest where I'm getting up for a beer run halfway through the second round. Liddell will win a decision, and Rua will be back in Japan fighting Ryo Kawamura and looking like the "Old Shogun" (a distant cousin of the "Old Vitor") before you know it.

 Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

This fight doubles as this weekends' Obvious Fight and The Fight That Shouldn't Even Be Happening Right Now. If that UFC 85 point deduction fiasco didn't happen, this would be Nate Marquardt or Yushin Okami, who they are really putting through the meat grinder before they give him a shot at the title ("Hey Yushin, beat this Antarctic polar bear, and we swear we'll give you the winner").

Also, nobody thinks Leites has a chance, and with good reason: Silva is superior in almost every way. But I got me a rule: Any time the American betting public writes someone off, that person should immediately be made the odds-on favorite. I think Leites has a great chance here, but, like Hardonk, he has to fight smart.

It's basically going to come down to Thales' gas tank, because we know Silva will be in shape. Thales can take a punch, and he's going to have to take several to give himself a chance at winning. On the feet, he should use his leg kicks, but he should use them from a distance.

Punches should only be thrown when he's shooting for a takedown, and they should be wild haymakers. Also like Hardonk, he should avoid clinching with Anderson. If he doesn't, Thales' nose could end up landing in the fifth row as the Rich Franklin Face makes a memorable encore appearance.

Thales has beautiful takedowns, and although Anderson's ground game is excellent, it is not on the level of Thales Leites. He's gotta use the shoot, though; again, screw trying to trip him from the clinch.

I see Anderson dominating the first part of the fight, sprawling perfectly, landing shots at will, and basically making me look like an idiot. But as the fight wears on, I think Leites will get him down, and eventually mount him before locking up a shocking armbar submission. Yes, I'm serious.