World Baseball Classic 2013: Bold Predictions for Pool 2

The semifinals of the World Baseball Classic are half set, with Japan and the Netherlands just battling over positioning on Tuesday. Pool 2 will take center stage to determine the final two teams that will make the journey to San Francisco this weekend. 

Predicting the World Baseball Classic is as difficult as predicting, well, Major League Baseball. This is a funny sport, where anything can happen in a short series. The best teams rarely win a championship—it is all about who is playing the best right now. 

So as the United States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Italy get ready to square off in Miami, here is what we expect to happen over the next four days. 

Italy will not win a game in this round

The fact that the Italians made it to this point, over Mexico and Canada, was a surprise in and of itself. There is some talent on the roster, obviously, but not nearly enough that would suggest making it to the semifinals. 

Italy has to be carried by its offense if it wants to win. The team was able to put up 20 runs in two games against Mexico and Canada, then scuffled in the game against the United States to get just two runs. 

The first two games appear to have been an aberration, as Canada's bullpen completely imploded in the second game of Pool D. 

Now, with the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico having such strong pitching—even better than expected through the first three games of the tournament—it is going to be hard for Italy to push runs across. 

The United States will make it to San Francisco...

This has not been a banner tournament for the United States. With the exception of the eighth and ninth innings against Canada, the lineup has had major issues turning its hits into runs.

The team is just 10-for-43 with runners in scoring position so far, which looks a lot better because of a 6-for-17 effort against Canada. That kind of ineptitude with men on base won't carry you far in this event. 

Because you can look up and down the lineup to see the offensive potential, not to mention the way that some players (David Wright, Adam Jones) are swinging the bat, and expect big things to come from here on out. 

Where the team is lacking is in the starting pitching department. Ryan Vogelsong and Derek Holland were able to minimize the damage in their respective starts, but they did get hit around. R.A. Dickey's knuckleball wasn't moving, making him more hittable last Friday than he was in all of 2012. 

Given the depth in the U.S. bullpen, not to mention the issues that Puerto Rico and Italy are likely to have scoring runs, the U.S. has the inside track on making it to the semifinals next weekend. 

...but the Dominican Republic will win Pool 2

In the scheme of things it doesn't matter who finishes first or second in a Pool, because the top two teams advance and all you need is an opportunity in order to win a game. 

So in that regard, the United States losing out on the top spot from Pool 2 in San Francisco isn't that big of a deal. However, when you look at all the attention this team has gotten, the fact it doesn't win every game becomes a huge story. 

The Dominican Republic is just a better team at this particular moment and has proven itself against better competition than the United States. It won the toughest pool in the World Baseball Classic, going 3-0 against Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Spain. 

Even when you think you have the Dominican lineup where you want it, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Santana or Robinson Cano steps up and launches a ball into orbit. The pitching staff is deep, especially the bullpen with Fernando Rodney, Santiago Casilla and Kelvin Herrera. 

If the Domincan Republic doesn't win the World Baseball Classic at this point, it would have to be considered a huge upset. 

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