Do NFL Stat Leaders Equal Team Wins?

The world is concentrating on the upcoming NFL draft and the league’s future stars. As a slight diversion, PossessionPoints.com thought it was a good time to turn our attention to veteran NFL players who became stat leaders, and the effect these leaders have had on their team’s success. 

We wanted to see if having a stat leader on a team correlated to winning games and more importantly, winning championships. 

We looked at six statistical categories for seasons 2002 through 2008: three offensive and three defensive.  On the offensive side, we analyzed the quarter back rating, rushing yards and receiving yards.  On the defensive side of the ball, we looked at the leaders in number of tackles, sacks and interceptions. 

In 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006, two players tied for most interceptions. Since there was a tie, we counted both players as leaders.  In total, there were 46 players whose efforts put them on top of the player pile in performance. 

Of these 46 players, only five played in a Super Bowl, and only two of those five were on a Super Bowl-winning team.  The first two players we found who played in a Super Bowl happened to be one of the interception-leader ties.

Rod Woodson from Oakland tied Brian Kelly from Tampa Bay in 2002 with eight interceptions. As you may remember, the Bucs beat the Raiders in the 2003 Super Bowl.

No Super Bowl participants were stat leaders again until the 2005 season which, of course, included the 2006 Super Bowl. During this season, Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks led the NFL in rushing with 1,880 yards.  While the Seahawks got to the big game, they lost the championship to the Steelers.

The next season, Peyton Manning of the Colts, led the NFL with a quarter back rating of 101.  This turned out to be the magical season for Manning who finally put the critics to rest and earned his Super Bowl ring.

The fifth and final Super Bowl participant was Tom Brady of the Patriots who led the league in 2007 with a quarterback rating of 117. As we all know, the Patriots would have achieved a perfect season had they not lost the Super Bowl that year to the New York Giants.

Five out of 46 stat leaders or 10.8 percent have made it to the Super Bowl. This may seem like a pretty fair number of players, but percentages are a funny thing. Consider this: two out of 32 teams in the NFL make it to the Super Bowl each year. That translates to 6.2 percent. This makes a10.8 percent figure seem not too impressive. 

Our main point is this: having an NFL stat leader on a team does not necessarily equate to winning championships.  However, what about winning games in general? 

We took a look at the win/loss records of all the stat leaders, and there were some leaders on losing teams such as D’Qwell Jackson of the Browns. In 2008, Jackson led the league in tackles with 154, but Cleveland could only muster a record of 4-12. 

However, when we added together the records of all the stat leaders from 2002 to 2008, we found that the combined record of their teams was over .500. In fact, the overall combined record for the seven years we analyzed was 429 wins and 307 losses or a winning percentage of .582.  This is slightly better than a single season record of 9-7, which is often good enough for a playoff berth. 

What we conclude is this: Teams need their stat leaders, but having those leaders is not a sure trip to the Super Bowl.