UFC 97 Redemption: The Picks

UFC 97 is fast approaching, so it's time for the quick and dirty breakdown of the card.

Well, if you've read my articles before, we both know this might be dirty, but it will probably not be so quick by the time it's over. I'll try to keep my pontificating to a minimum though, for the people just looking to hedge their bets.

Anderson Silva d. Thales Leites

I just can't see it any other way. I'm not entirely on the "Silva is invincible" bandwagon, but at the same time, Leites doesn't have much of a chance here.

His wins are all over middling or one-dimensional competition, save for Nate Marquardt, and anyone who saw that fight knows that he won on a technicality despite getting beat from pillar to post.

In addition to that, Leites has a tendency to stand and bang when he shouldn't, which has led to him getting knocked around by the likes of Ryan Jensen, and losing a decision to Martin Kampmann, whom he failed to take down time and again.

Silva has heard his detractors after the Cote fight, and will make a statement in this fight.

Chuck Liddell d. Shogun Rua

I might eat a lot of crow on this one, but I've always thought that even a Shogun with cardio is begging to be counter-punched. Shogun has a reputation as a vicious striker, and rightly so, but a lot of his finishing techniques are illegal in the UFC, and at the least require his opponent to be on the mat.

Even in his twilight years, Liddell is not an easy man to take down. Both men have shown glaring weaknesses in their last fights, but cardio is going to be the killer in this matchup. Liddell has never been one to get blitzed early in the fight, and he won't be underestimating the dangerousness of his opponent. Liddell by eventual TKO.

Krzysztof Soszynski d. Brian Stann

This matchup is hard to call, but I'd have to say that based on what I've seen before, even working at Xtreme Couture, Stann's ground game is suspect. He seems to rely on the gameplan of "punch the other guy until he falls down," and thus far it's worked pretty well for him.

I don't think he can catch Kryzstof fast enough, though. The Team Quest fighter is willing to stand and bang, but he also knows when to go to the ground, and has won there many times.

The only person of note to definitively stop Krzysztof is Ben Rothwell, and while I don't think trading blow for blow with Stann is a good idea, I also don't think he packs quite the punch that Rothwell does.

Cheick Kongo d. Antoni Hardonk

This an interestingly close fight. Both men excel at the striking, and both have proven to have incredibly dangerous kicks. In Hardonk, Kongo will finally be facing someone his own size, but Hardonk has shown that he can be overwhelmed by strikers like the brawling Eddie Sanchez, who was rag-dolling Hardonk before gassing out.

This fight could go either way on the feet, but Kongo has finally seen fit to improve his takedowns, and working with Rampage has made his ground and pound downright vicious.

I do think his ground abilities have progressed faster than Hardonk's submissions, which have always looked subpar for their supposed Gracie pedigree.

I just don't forsee this fight being the striker's war that many are predicting, and I think Kongo has the better tools to finish the fight.

Luis Cane d. Steve Cantwell

Cane has very seasoned striking that took out Sokoudjou, and the durability that it took to withstand that same onslaught. The fact that he is undefeated—aside from a mental lapse that caused a DQ against James Irvin—says a lot as well.

Cantwell would seem to have the edge on the ground, but for some reason I don't see the fight going there; Cane has the footwork to avoid it if he wants, I believe. Cantwell has only been under the big lights of the UFC one time, and was given a fairly low-level opponent.

I'm picking Cane based just on experience and quality of opponents.

Vinnie Magalhaes d. Eliot Marshall

Vinnie has shown to have a great submission game, and doesn't care whether he is on the top or bottom. Marshall is also a submission fighter, and while not as skilled as Vinnie, he is the more well-rounded fight in my opinion.

The issue is that Marshall doesn't have the power and wrestling to avoid the ground like Ryan Bader did en route to putting out the lights on the black belt. Sooner or later  Marshall gets tangled on the ground, and he gets caught.

Xavier Foupa-Pokam d. Denis Kang

Kang will come out with something to prove after his disastrous debut, but Xavier is well rounded as well. I admit I don't know as much about "Professor X," but he has a number of wins by submission as well as (T)KO.

Kang has faced better competition, I believe, but has lost to most of them. Kang can't seem to settle down for a decision win, switching back and forth between tactics  and needlessly exposing himself to danger. I'm picking Foupa-Pokam just based on Kang's tendency to throw away fights, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way.

Jason MacDonald d. Nate Quarry

Quarry wants a stand-up fight, MacDonald likely wants nothing to do with it. MacDonald has done better against both of their common opponents, Rich Franklin and Demian Maia, even though both fighters have lost to both of them.

Also, MacDonald has been logging a crazy amount of cage time lately,fighting every few months, and Quarry can't seem to stop getting injured outside the ring. He also can't seem to get a fight that goes past the first—not counting the Starnes debacle. His ring rust will be his undoing.

David Loiseau d. Ed Herman

I think Loiseau has finally gotten his head right, and is coming off three wins, including a gutsy fifth round TKO of Solomon Hutcherson. Herman is an unpredictable fighter, and not in the good way. He has been winning and losing upsets his entire time in the UFC.

The telling factor is that Herman is not a very explosive fighter and will probably have difficulty controlling Loiseau. His striking is also very rudimentary, and I think Loiseau will give him fits on the feet.  That is if he can open up, which shouldn't be an issue with Herman; I think the UFC is giving Loiseau a good style matchup in this one.

Mark Bocek d. David Bielkheden

Bocek has a strong grappling pedigree, as does Bielkheden. I don't see either man submitting the other, and both have proven to be very difficult to finish. I see the difference being the fact that Bielkheden has had trouble in the past with strong grapplers who can control him for a decision win.

Also, the Swede is cutting to lightweight for the first time in the UFC, which may affect his endurance. Bocek is a big 155'er, and I think he can manage to take the win away from a fading Bielkheden.

Matt Wiman d. Sam Stout

A very difficult fight to pick. Stout is coming off of two very close decision losses, while Wiman is coming off a three round mauling at the hands of a short-notice Jim Miller. Wiman has shown flashes of brilliance on the feet, such as when he smashed Thiago Tavares, but the ground is arguably his strong point, and should be in this fight.

Stout has shown improvements in his grappling; his takedown defense looked airtight against Per Eklund, but when Rich Clementi showed him a well-rounded attack, he was able to drag him to the ground time after time. This is the sort of threat that Wiman can pose when on his game, and I think he will be after being outclassed in his last fight.

Stout is nearly impervious on the feet, but can be outpointed by more versatile strikers, as Terry Etim and Spencer Fisher showed. Wiman best not try to knock him out, but Stout's kickboxing, while technically accurate and sound, can be predictable against more unorthodox MMA strikers.

All in all, Stout seems content to try and play the sprawl and brawl game, which has shown him the losing end more than once, and he doesn't possess the imposing physical style that wore out Wiman against Miller. Stout could catch Wiman and put him away, but he has never finished a UFC-level opponent, and Wiman's chin has proved sturdy.

Wiman by decision.

TJ Grant d. Ryo Chonan

Grant comes in with an impressive 13-2 record, a Jorge Gurgel purple belt who put away UFC vets Forrest Petz and Chad Reiner last year. I haven't seen any tape on him, but he's billed as a solid wrestler and has 12 of his 13 wins by submission.

Chonan has not looked the same since Pride, and also seems to be small as far as UFC welterweights go. He can be excellent on the feet, but has not shown a strong takedown defense, which is difficult to get away with in the mutant shark tank that is the UFC's wrestler-heavy lineup.

Gurgel's students seem to have incredible submission games, and unlike their teacher, choose to apply them.

If Grant pushes the pace, I think he can take the fight, but I doubt he will finish Chonan, who has shown to be very difficult to put away for all except the most elite submission fighters or hard hitters like Phil Baroni or Dan Henderson.