2009 NFL Bold Predictions
It is around this time of year when teams are active in free agency and the NFL Draft is looming just a month away. The season may not start for another five months or so but sometimes we just can't help ourselves when thinking about things that may happen in it.
That's why we're coming at you with an early installment of NFL Bold Predictions for the 2009 fantasy football season. There's already some new faces in new places and here's a few bold predictions of how those players and their teams might fare this season.
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Tom Brady will throw less than 30 touchdowns
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady set an NFL record with 50 touchdowns two years ago then saw his season end in the first game of 2008 because of a torn ACL in his left knee. When healthy Brady looks absolutely in control of the offense that he can almost do what he wants, when he wants.
The history of quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries like this is not good. The most recent example is Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who tore his left ACL in the 2005 playoffs.
He came back to play a full season the next year but wasn't quite the same, going from a 32-12 TD-INT ratio to 28-13 the year after the injury and 26-20 in 2007. Brady does have the benefit of more rehabilitation time but he has had to have multiple surgeries on the knee and may not be 100 percent by the time the season rolls around. Furthermore, before his record-breaking season in 2007 Brady never eclipsed 28 touchdowns in a season.
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Terrell Owens will catch 15 or more touchdowns
That's right, our favorite loudmouth receiver will catch 15 or more touchdowns with his new team, the Buffalo Bills. Some of Owens' best seasons came in his first year with his new team.
In 2004 when Owens went from the San Francisco 49ers to the Philadelphia Eagles he caught 77 passes for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns. In 2006, his first year as a Dallas Cowboy, Owens had 85 receptions for 1,180 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Buffalo has not been known in recent years for an explosive offense but take a look at the players around Owens there and things begin to look up. Quarterback Trent Edwards has shown improvement since becoming a starter in the middle of the season two years ago despite having only one legitimate receiver in Lee Evans.
Evans is the team's deep threat and Owens will provide a nice complement to him on the other side. Teams will not be able to focus on either Evans or Owens, and Owens will provide the team the biggest boost where it's needed the most—the red zone.
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Jay Cutler will struggle in Chicago
The Chicago Bears thought so much of Jay Cutler they decided to trade Kyle Orton and two first-round draft picks to the Denver Broncos for him. That's an awful lot of pressure to live up to, especially in a place like Chicago where the fans are demanding.
There is not much precedent for a quarterback of Cutler's caliber to be traded in the off-season. What will make the first season as a Bear difficult for Cutler is, well, just about everything.
First of all, the Bears do not have a receiver in the same ilk as Broncos wide-out Brandon Marshall, of whom Cutler was a big fan. In fact none of the Bears receivers—Marty Booker, Devin Hester, Brandon Lloyd, Earl Bennett or Rashied Davis—stand out the way Marshall did.
Secondly, Cutler will have to make a lot of adjustments. He must adjust to a new coaching staff, new teammates, a new environment, a new home and a new playbook. When Brett Favre was traded to the New York Jets prior to last season he had to go through the same thing, and we all saw how that turned out.
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Matt Cassel will struggle in Kansas City
Similar to the Cutler situation, there is just way too much going on here for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel to succeed in 2009. Not only must he learn a new playbook, a new city, new teammates and a new coaching staff but he must do so in his first year as the starter entering the season.
Oh yeah, he also won't have the benefit of throwing to Randy Moss or Wes Welker either. Instead he gets Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, good players in their own respects but not quite the receiving duo he threw to in New England.
Cassel played admirably last season in the face of adversity but he is in a completely different situation now. He is the man in Kansas City and that is a lot of pressure to live up to. Expect him to have some solid games mixed in with some dismal ones, making him a hit-or-miss fantasy football option.
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Cincinnati will be arrested for DUI
That's right, the entire team will be arrested for a DUI, all at once. Is this possible?
No, but the Bengals will find a way to pull it off. Cornerback Leon Hall recently pleaded not guilty to his DUI charge and if that's not enough, the team went out and signed defensive tackle Tank Johnson.
Apparently the Bengals pledge to only bring in "character" guys was eschewed in favor of bringing in guys who they felt could help Cincinnati win right away. It's not like coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat or anything...oh wait, actually he is. Just remember to buckle up the next time you're driving through Cincinnati.
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LaDainian Tomlinson will not rush for 1,000 yards
San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson has been one of the greatest and most consistent skill-position players in the NFL in this decade. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns all eight seasons in the league.
However, there is a reason why more and more teams are moving to a running back by committee (RBBC) and that is the fragility of players at that position. Running backs take a pounding more so than any other skill-position on the field.
The average career of an NFL player is around four years yet the average career of a running back is about two years or less. All those hits, tackles, bruises and everything else add up to even the most durable running backs.
Let's look at a similar running back for comparison. Eddie George, who is now retired but spent nine seasons in the league playing for the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans and the Dallas Cowboys, was known for being durable and consistent. In his first eight years George never carried the ball less than 312 times in a season and failed to break 1,000 yards just once—in 2001 when he fought injuries all season and still finished with 939 yards.
All those carries and hits added up, and by the time George entered his ninth season there just wasn't much left in the tank. George managed just 432 rushing yards in 14 games with the Cowboys in his ninth season before retiring.
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QB Tony Romo will throw away the Cowboys season—again
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has a nasty habit of playing poorly when the team needs him the most. The bobbled snap on the PAT in the 2006 playoffs, the interception in the back of the end zone of the 2007 playoffs and of course the three turnovers in a 44-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last season that eliminated Dallas from playoff contention.
Dallas still has Wade Phillips as coach and Romo will now be without Owens, a favorite target of his the past three seasons, so it will be interesting to watch just how Romo messes up the Cowboys' season this time.
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Cleveland will start a rookie at Quarterback
The Cleveland Browns are in an interesting position right now. The Browns have a former Pro-Bowl quarterback in Derek Anderson and a former first-round draft pick in Brady Quinn on their roster yet neither will be the starter for Cleveland this season.
Right now there is a great divide in the front office in Cleveland, with about half of the personnel siding with Anderson and the other half siding with Quinn. Quinn looked average in what little playing time he received while Anderson looked great in 2007, but never any other time.
So where do they go from here?
Well, with a new general manager in George Kokinis and a new coach in Eric Mangini, it's likely that neither Anderson or Quinn will start for the Browns this season. New general mangers and coaches have a tendency to use "their own guys" but that isn't all.
Multiple reports in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, a highly respected newspaper, suggest the Browns are quickly falling in love with former USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and are considering selecting him with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Seeing what the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens did with rookie quarterbacks last year, Mangini will probably opt to go with Sanchez and let him grow on the job, knowing his coaching position is safe for at least this year and likely the next.
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AFC North Wide Receivers will be on the move
Cleveland receiver Braylon Edwards and Cincinnati receiver Chad Ocho Cinco will not finish the 2009 season with their current teams. In fact, there's a good chance they won't start the season with them.
There are multiple reports out there about Edwards and Ocho Cinco being on the move this off-season and it's clear why as both have pretty much worn out their welcome in their current cities. The New York Giants are interested in Edwards, especially after releasing Plaxico Burress.
The Philadelphia Eagles are interested in Ocho Cinco. And you know what?
If both of those moves happened each receiver would be a good fit on those teams. Edwards would not have to be the man in New York and Ocho Cinco would thrive in a chance to work with Donovan McNabb.
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WR Michael Crabtree will break 1,000 receiving yards
Former Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree will go over 1,000 receiving yards this season, and this is said without knowing which team he'll play for. The history of rookie receivers in the NFL has not been good as most take two or three years to fully adjust to better defensive backs and coverage schemes.
However there are exceptions—Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston come to mind. The thing is, that's just how good Crabtree is.
He's got the ability and hands to make a seamless transition to the NFL and if he went to a team like the Seattle Seahawks, who already has an established and good quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, then there's no way Crabtree doesn't break 1,000 receiving yards.
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