The Denver Nuggets: Do We Dare Believe?

Do we dare believe in Denver?

It's Playoff time, right around when Denver Nugget fans begin to get hopeful.

Back in 2006, the team won the Northwest Division and gained the third seed in the West. The Rocky Mountain faithful were sure that the team could get back to the second round for the first time since 1994...
 
But unfortunately, they drew the surging L.A Clippers and lost in the first round in five games.

When the Nuggets first acquired Allen Iverson, the team assumed that two of the league's best scorers would combine to help the team achieve even more than they had the year before...

But unfortunately, the Spurs were on their way to a championship and dispatched of the Nuggets in the first round.

And last year, even though they finished in the eighth seed, the Nuggets were a 50-win team...

But the Lakers were final-bound, and Denver got swept.

It's now been well over a decade since the Nugs have emerged from the first round.

This year, though, the team made perhaps the biggest trade of the year by swapping Iverson for Chauncey Billups.

Billups has thrust himself into the MVP conversation by transforming the Nuggets from just a "run 'n gun" group to a team that still prides itself on offense but realizes the need for defense too. And it seems to be working for them.

As of today, they are the second seed in the West (definitely no easy feat this year) and the leaders of the Northwest Division. They sport a 53-27 record and so have already surpassed last year's win total.

They had their eight-game home win streak broken last night, but have still won 13 of their last 15 and have surged from the seventh spot in just a couple weeks.

Now, if the current postseason seedings were to hold, the Nuggets would be matched up with the aging Mavericks.

But in all honesty, it is not very likely that these seedings will hold. Denver is just one game ahead of both Houston and Portland and just 1.5 games above San Antonio.

And besides that, Dallas and New Orleans are both just 1.5 games above the eighth-seeded Utah Jazz.

There's not a huge chance that Denver's own seeding will change, but their opponent may be in flux until the last day of the regular season. There really is everything left to play for in this year's volatile Western Conference.

They have two games left, the first being a home contest against the Kings. This game really should be a "gimme," as Sacramento has absolutely nothing to play for.

On Wednesday, they will travel to Oregon to face the Portland Trail Blazers in possibly their biggest game of the regular season. This battle could easily decide the winner of the Northwest Division and the seedings of the two teams.

But however the 82-game records shake out, the real question is, do we trust Denver to finally make it to the second round?

It seems likely that they will be playing against either the Hornets, Mavs, or Jazz. Let's look at how the Nuggets have performed against these clubs throughout the year:

Nuggets vs. the New Orleans Hornets

November 27: L, 105-101. J.R. Smith scored 32 off the bench.

January 3: W, 105-100. All starters plus Smith off the bench reached double-figures.

January 28: L, 94-81. Carmelo Anthony missed the game due to injury, but Kenyon Martin scored 22 on 10-of-12 shooting.

March 25: W, 101-88. Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony combined for 55 points.

So the season series ended in a tie, though Melo was out for one of the losses.

Chauncey Billups seems to do a relatively good job of keeping CP3 in check: Paul averages 20.8 PPG and 11 APG against the Nuggets, and those are pretty great numbers, but compared to Paul's performances against other teams, it's not bad at all.

I still believe the Nuggets would want to avoid the Hornets in the first round, though. One should never bet against Chris Paul, and if the Hornets manage to get healthy, they have a great chance against the Nuggets.

Nuggets vs. the Dallas Mavericks

November 7: W, 108-105. Carmelo Anthony scored 28, including 14-of-14 from the free-throw line.

December 15: W, 98-88. J.R. Smith scored 25 off the bench.

January 13: W, 99-97. Carmelo Anthony missed the game due to injury.

March 27: W, 103-101. Carmelo Anthony scored 43 and grabbed 11 rebounds.

It was a regular-season sweep for the Nuggets, though three of their wins were by three points or less.

I would pick the Mavs as the Nuggets' top choice for their first-round matchup. Carmelo and Chauncey play well against them, and the aging Mavs would struggle to keep up with Denver's tempo.

However, the Nuggets did play three very close games against this team and have huge problems matching up with Dirk Nowitzki. He averages 30 points against the Nuggets (this ties for his highest against any other team; he also averages 30 against Miami and Phoenix). He also gets 11 boards per game against them.

Nuggets vs. the Utah Jazz

January 25: W, 117-97. Nene Hilario scored 28 on 12-of-12 shooting.

March 6: L, 97-91. J.R. Smith scored 29 after being inserted into starting lineup.

April 2: W, 114-104. J.R. Smith scores 28 off the bench.

The Nuggets won the season series against their division rivals, but I wouldn't count the Jazz out in the Playoffs. They have Deron Williams, they have Carlos Boozer, and probably most importantly, they have Jerry Sloan.

It would definitely be an interesting matchup between the two.

So my ultimate answer to the question of the second round?

If they draw the Mavs, I'd say yes.

If they draw the Hornets or Jazz, I'd have to go with no.

But that's just me. Perhaps I underestimate them.

Or perhaps everyone else overestimates? It's possible.

The game against Portland will undoubtedly be huge, and as I said earlier, there's still everything to play for for this Nuggets team.