World Baseball Classic 2013 Bracket: Heavy Favorites to Win Group Stage

The World Baseball Classic has only been around since 2006, but we have a pretty good idea which teams will advance from this year's group stage, set to begin on March 1.

With championships in the previous two WBC showcases, Japan looks to run the table for a third crown. Despite that success, the Japanese team isn’t the favorite to win it all.

Team USA and the Dominican Republic enter the WBC as the favorites to earn a title, and both should have a fairly easy time advancing past the round-robin group stage.

Korea will be a team to watch in this year’s classic. Posting a 12-4 record in the last two showcases, Korea has more prior wins than any team in the contest, despite failing to best Japan in 2006 or 2009.

Here’s a look at the odds of winning the tournament for each team (per Bovada.lv). We’ll break down which of those teams has the best odds of advancing past the group stage of the tournament.

*Top two teams from each pool advance to second round.

Team	Odds
United States	9/4
Dominican Republic	13/4
Japan	7/2
Venezuela	7/1
Korea	10/1
Cuba	16/1
Canada	22/1
Mexico	22/1
Chinese Taipei	25/1
Puerto Rico	25/1
Netherlands	33/1
China	40/1
Australia	66/1
Brazil	100/1
Italy	100/1
Spain	200/1

Pool A: Japan, China, Cuba, Brazil

Favorites: Japan and Cuba

Japan has won each of the first two WBC tournaments, and carrying only 7/2 odds to add another title is a bit misleading. Team USA and the Dominican Republic are loaded with talent, but Japan could easily uproot either squad for a third championship.

Cuba will be a tough test, but there’s little chance the Japanese team falters against either Cuba (16/1) or Brazil (100/1). Still, former stars Yu Darvish, Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsuzaka passed on an opportunity to represent their country this year, and much of Japan’s production will have to come from domestic talent.

Cuba doesn’t have big-league talent on its roster, but it has done well on the international stage of late. Team Cuba finished second in the IBAF World Cup in 2007, 2009 and 2011, making it to the WBC Championship against Japan in 2006.

It probably won’t make it to the finals this year, but Cuba has a good chance to advance to Round 2, given the opponents it faces in the group stage. Apart from Japan, Team Cuba shouldn’t have much difficulty in the opening frame.

Pool B: Korea, Australia, Netherlands, Chinese Taipei

Favorites: Korea and Chinese Taipei

Korea (10/1) is one of the top-five favorites to win the WBC this year, but the group stage will be a difficult test. According to the WBC’s official website, Korea’s roster does not include a single player with MLB or minor league experience.

Still, the Korean team won the gold medal in the 2008 Olympics and 2010 Asian games with similar domestic talent, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t advance beyond the group stage this year.

Chinese Taipei (25/1) is a long shot to win the tournament, but it’s a heavy favorite over the Netherlands (33/1) and Australia (66/1). As long as it can be competitive against Korea and beat the teams it is expected to defeat, Chinese Taipei should advance past the group stage.

 

Pool C: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Spain

Favorites: Dominican Republic and Venezuela

Apart from Team USA, there isn’t another roster as loaded with star MLB talent. The Dominican Republic (13/4) boasts a lineup featuring Jose Reyes, Nelson Cruz, Hanley Ramirez, Robinson Cano, Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion; its roster is a veritable “who’s who” of big league mashers.

It isn’t just offense that will carry the Dominican Republic either. Jose Valverde, Edinson Volquez, Wandy Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney highlight a pitching staff that is as good as any in the WBC. Look for the Dominican Republic to not only advance out of the group stage, but make a run at the championship this year.

Venezuela (7/1) isn’t far behind the Pool C favorite. With Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus and Pablo Sandoval in the lineup, the top two teams from the group should put up an inordinate amount of runs.

Spain (200/1) and Puerto Rico (25/1) are heavy underdogs. They don’t stand much of a chance against the big hitters in Pool C.

 

Pool D: United States, Canada, Mexico, Italy

Favorites: United State and Canada

Joe Torre will look to sway Team USA’s luck in the WBC this year. The U.S. (9/4) has never placed higher than fourth in the tournament, but a roster loaded with MLB talent will ensure a quick send-off for Mexico and Italy in the group stage.

Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, R.A. Dickey, Gio Gonzalez, David Wright and Joe Mauer are just a handful of quality MLB players Team USA managed to obtain this year. There is plenty of talent in Pool D to give the U.S. a few bumps in the road, but there’s little doubt the U.S. advances with at least two wins in pool play.

Canada and Mexico both have 22/1 odds of winning the WBC; whichever team advances could depend on the inclusion of Cincinnati Reds first baseman, Joey Votto.

Votto is unsure if he will play in the WBC, but if he does participate, Canada has the edge over a Mexico squad that lost to Korea and Japan in Round 2 of the 2009 showcase.

*All statistical figures, historical data and roster information obtained from WorldBaseballClassic.com.