NBA Draft 2009-10 Names To Watch Over The Years

Every year, we attempt to project which players will be studs, and which will be duds. Who will win rookie of the year, and who will get their GM fired over the All-Star break? The best question to ask however is how will these picks look five years from now?

Every draft has late-bloomers. Who could forget that Andrew Bynum was slated to go in the twenties, or that Manu Ginobili nearly went undrafted?

Over the years I've done some work in trying to prject player potential. Some examples of players who were picked significantly below where I had them projected from recent years were; George Hill and Nicholas Batum who should have gone between 15-20,  Anthony Randolph and JaVale McGee who should have gone five picks higher each, and Brook Lopez who i had projected at four-five like many people.

In 2007, I felt Nick Young and Tiago Splitter should have been late lottery picks, thought Durant should have gone No. 1, and I had no faith in Jeff Green, but thankfully, the Sonics did.

In 2005, I felt Bynum was a top-6 pick, and would have picked him as high as four, and in  2004  I had Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, and Paval Podkolzine and  Shawn Livingston as the best prospects after Dwight  Howard. 

That was a major mis-read, especially with Podkolzine and Livingston. I tend to miss prospects, such as Brandon Roy in 2006 who I thought would be a well-rounded Jarvis Hayes, or Jameer Nelson, but I would have never imagined would have been an All-Star. 

We make mistakes, and everyone does, but let's try to project the biggest stars in the upcoming draft based purely on top-end potential. This is to say that if all things go perfectly, the prospect ends up in the right situation, works hard, stays the same health wise, stays focused, what is the best thing they can be.

The number one objective is to outline any hindrances in the player's development. Are they too short, too injury-prone, or are their hands simply to small, their shoulders too round, their lower body too weak?

We must go through, and the player who has the least possible hindrances is usually the top pick in this list.

This is in no way to say that the player will become the best. Surely dedication cannot be measured, and neither can we say how dedicated the coaching staff will be to developing this guy.

Starters/Sixth Men

10. Hasheem Thabeet

He will struggle on the next level to find his place in the new NBA. He's a little big, and I see injury troubles in the future, as well as a total inability to guard the modern center in the NBA.

He's not going to be much of an offensive force, but he has some potential there to be serviceable. His impact will come defensively, but I see him being pretty foul-prone and being quite an average NBA player into his prime. He might be a starter at some point, but I don't see All-Star.

Best Case Scenario: Much better Dasagana Diop

Worst Case:Johan Petro

Potential: 77

Projection:Top 5 Pick (5th Overall)

9. Willie Warren

I think Warren has a place in a fast-paced offense where he'll be free to jack shots at to his heart's content. He has a good feel for playing defense, but I don't see him being an elite defensive player at barely 6'4.

Best Case: Taller Jason Terry

Worst Case: Dujuan Wagner

Potential:79

Projection:Lottery (10th Overall)

8. Tyreke Evans

I see strong head-case red flags here and I certainly don't see him fitting into most NBA situations. His work off the ball needs work, and that's putting it kindly. He is talented, but how many teams are willing to hand him the keys to their offense in order for him to be effective? Not many.

He's got some solid defensive ability so the potential problems with him are all off the court and in his head. He'll never be elite, but he could be a very good player in this league.

Best Case : Larry Hughes

Worst Case:Willie Greene

Potential:80

Projection:Lottery (9th Overall)

7. Jordan Hill

I see a rebounder, a hustler, and a guy New York would love to have. He doesn't have a very polished game, and hasn't been playing very long, which means he lacks the feel that the "lifers' have. His intangibles are questionable, and his potential is something close to a cross between Nene and David Lee, which is a fantastic player if he gets there, but not a superstar.

Best Case: Nene Halario/David Lee

Worst Case:Chris Wilcox

Potential:82

Projection: Top 3 Pick (3rd Overall)

Potential All-Stars

6. James Harden

I have a feeling that he's going to be good, but I can't shake the feeling that he's going to fall short of being superstar good. He's got limitations galore. He's nonathletic compared to some of the other guys he'll meet on the next level, and lacks explosiveness, or the Go-to mentality.

Overall his potential is low, but his likliness of being a bust is also very low. He's coachable, and unselfish. He seems to be the type of player who would be most helped by playing on a very good team, and not being asked to carry a very bad one.

For his sake then, I hope his stock drops to the extent that he's picked between 8-12, because he could truly thrive on a team in that situation.

Best Case: Brandon Roy (less assertive)

Worst Case:John Salmons

Potential:82

Projection: Top 5 Pick (4th Overall)

5. Al-Farouq Aminu

He has immense potential, and I can't say much beyond that. He has the physical tools to be a big 3/4 combo and he's going to be the youngest player taken in this draft. He's coachable, and his potential is somewhere between Luol Leng and Josh Smith, which is to say he has All-Star type potential.

Best Case: Luol Deng/Josh Smith

Worst Case:Trevor Ariza

Potential:87

Projection: Lottery Pick (13th Overall)

4. Brandon Jennings

He's lightning quick, gets to the rim, has break down ability, and has spent a year in Europe playing pro-ball which should prepare him well mentally for the next step. He has high bust-potential, but also great potential to be a solid All-Star in this league based on his drive to become one.

Best Case: Allen Iverson/Tony Parker

Worst Case: Lou Williams

Potential:87

Projection: Lottery (6th Overall)

SuperStar-Potential

3. Blake Griffin

He's the number one pick across every Mock-draft, but look back to the start of this year and you'd be surprised to find him in the top 3. Now granted he did a lot of good work this past summer, but to be honest, his limitations are still there.

He's a great rebounder, but is he still on the undersized side? 6'10? I think not. Probably closer to 6'8 and change, and he's not a very good defender at all.

Comparing him to two other college superstars in Durant (2007), and Beasley(2008), he's probably the least skilled of the three, and is likely to disappoint anyone expecting a traditional number one pick. He'll likely be a solid rebounder from the get-go, but his overall productivity will be closer to Al Jefferson eventually.

Therefore, while he may become a great player in this league, he'll likely be nothing more than a top 20 type. He's also got some knee concerns people should be wary about.

Best Case: Brian Grant/Horace Grant

Worst Case: Rich man's Kris Humphries

Potential:88

Projection:Top 3 Pick (1st Overall)

2. DeMar DeRozan

I was tempted to put him at one, but I'm not certain he'll ever be that good. DeRozan has everything you could dream of in a player at the wing position. He can rebound, play defense, shoot a little bit although he needs work there, he can slash, and he's a big ticket athlete who'll be sure to become a favorite on ESPN top-10.

He's got superstar potential, but is a very good candidate to get lost in the shuffle and perhaps turn into one of the many other rotation wings in the league ala Tony Allen and J.R Smith. At worst he's going to be a solid rotation player with a few holes in his game. At best, he's a perennial All-Star and the second coming of Vince Carter.

Best Case: Vince Carter (Younger Slashing version)

Worst Case:Rodney Carney/Tony Allen

Potential:93

Projection: Lottery Pick (8th Overall)

1. Ricky Rubio

He's got passion, defensive ability, toughness, creativity, and the potential to be one of the best players to ever play this game. He's got it all. He's big for the guard position, and unlike Nash who many liken his game to, he impacts the game at both ends of the floor.

Best Case: Pete Maravich/Steve Nash

Worst Case:Sergio Rodriguez

Potential:95

Projection: Top 3 Pick (2nd Overall)