Handicapping the 2009 Masters: Separating the Contenders from the Pretenders

Okay, let’s figure out who takes home the green jacket this weekend.  There are just under 100 players teeing it up this year.

For starters, let’s eliminate any former winners if their win came before the year 2000. There’s no point in discussing the chances for Ray Floyd, Fuzzy Zoeller, Mark O’Meara, Ben Crenshaw, Ian Woosnam, etc., because they have zero possibility of winning.

Next, we’ll scratch the amateurs and international players who received special invitations through winning goofy tournaments like the mid-senior, Hong Kong European Classic.

Then, cut out the Todd Hamiltons and Michael Campbells of the field who are only here because of exempt status earned through winning one of the other majors sometime in the past five years. At least for the aforementioned Hamilton and Campbell, they probably haven’t even booked accommodations past Friday, such are their chances of even making the cut.

Now, with over half of the field eliminated, we need to cut the guys that will never win a tournament that Tiger has entered. That eliminates about 10 of the remaining 50.

So, who is left? I’ve got 33 guys. Let’s categorize them.

Long Shots

Anthony Kim—Hasn’t shown enough yet, but will win here someday.

Trevor Immelman—Courtesy mention because he’s defending. He won’t make the cut.

K.J. Choi—He plays well here, but comes in lacking momentum.

Andres Romero—Just a feeling that he could make some noise.

Aaron Baddeley—Returned to his old coach recently, and can really putt.

Stuart Appleby—Solid pro who needs a hot week to contend.

Vijay Singh—Can’t putt well enough to win here anymore.

Justin Rose—Has had some good rounds early here, but fades on the weekend.

Nick Watney—May be a year or two early for him to contend.

Rory Sabbatini—Has the game, but not the temperament for the back nine on Sunday.

Kenny Perry—Can a drawer of the ball win here?

Jeev Singh—Looks comfortable playing this course.

Sean O’ Hair—Someday, but not yet.

Angel Cabrera—Seems very solid on this course.

Stewart Cink—Don’t think he can putt it well enough to win.

Robert Allenby—Hitting it great. If he can drop any putts, who knows?

Rory McIlroy—Doubt it, but wouldn’t it be a story?

Decent Shot

Zach Johnson—Playing well, handles the short game demands at Augusta.

Mike Weir—Former winner, likes the short game challenges of the course.

Luke Donald—Another short-game talent with past success here.

Henrik Stenson—Not much of a major resume, but that could change here.

Paul Casey—Playing well and seems fearless. Good combo at Augusta.

Ernie Els—Closer to a “long shot” than a “great shot.” Chances are disappearing.

Adam Scott—Why hasn’t this guy contended in a major?

Jim Furyk—Stock isn’t as high as it once was.

Hunter Mahan—Could do very well this week.  

Camilo Villegas—Showed during FedEx Cup that he’s a big-time player. How big?

Great Shot

Phil Mickelson—Won two of the past five. Hasn’t made horrible Masters decisions like elsewhere.

Geoff Ogilvy—Best player on tour so far this year. Wants this tournament badly.

Padraig Harrington—Three in a row is asking a lot, but this guy is tough.

Sergio Garcia—Nobody’s talking about him, which could make this his time.

Tiger Woods—It’s asking too much this early in his return. If anyone can do it, though…

Winner

Retief Goosen—Solid history here, recent winner, rededicated player.