Stating the Facts: The Broncos Are a Good Draft Away from the AFC West Title

Out are Mike Shanahan, Jay Cutler, and Dre Bly in the Mile High City, and in are Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, and Brian Dawkins. 

Not only has change been the theme of our nation, it is the theme of the Denver Broncos.

No team in the NFL has been as active this offseason as the Denver Broncos, and no organization has given Adam Schefter more overtime pay. While Broncos fans seem to be split in half over their team's current state, all is not bad in Denver.

Firing a Hall of Fame coach? Questionable. 

Trading away the most talented quarterback in team history since some guy named Elway? Questionable. 

However, both had to be done.

Shanahan's coaching philosophies were becoming outdated and predictable. Cutler cried and whined his way out of Denver. Are the Broncos better off for it?

The Broncos signed one of the NFL's brightest young offensive minds in McDaniels to be their head coach, and the youngster has made it known around the locker room that he is the boss with no if's or but's about it. 

He started his tenure in Denver by releasing seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, and proceeding to lure future Hall of Fame hopeful Brian Dawkins away from the Philadelphia Eagles. 

In addition to Dawkins, McDaniels was able to add veteran defenders Renaldo Hill (safety), Andre' Goodman (cornerback), Andra Davis (linebacker), and Darrell Reid (outside linebacker/special teamer), among others.

Denver fans were ecstatic. This man was doing exactly what he was brought to Denver to do: Rebuild the defense and work with Denver's second ranked offense.

Then, the roof collapsed. The Broncos tried to trade for former Patriots and now Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, who was a protege of McDaniels in his time as quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator in New England.

Needless to say, Cutler was furious and he proceeded to demand a trade. The Broncos adhered to his request, and Cutler was sent off to Chicago along with a fifth round draft pick (acquired from Seattle) in exchange for quarterback Kyle Orton, first round selections in 2009 as well as 2010, and a third round selection in 2009.

The unimaginable suddenly became a reality and Bronco Nation was taken aback by this news. Their quarterback, their face of the franchise, their Pro Bowler, their Cutler was gone. Forever.

Does McDaniels know what he is doing? 

His history of developing "nobody" quarterbacks like Tom Brady (sixth round selection) and Matt Cassel (seventh round selection) into star quarterbacks is unquestionable, and there is no reason to think he will not do the same with Kyle Orton or Chris Simms in Denver's new look offense.

Cutler to Orton comparison

Cutler was a Pro Bowl quarterback in 2008. He was a first round pick (11th overall) in 2006 from Vanderbilt, and has compiled a 17-20 record in his 37 NFL starts. 

Some will say that Cutler's poor record as a starter is a result of Denver's terrible defense, and there is truth to that statement to some degree. When the Broncos held opponents under 21 points, they were 13-1 with Cutler at the helm.

In comparison of pure athleticism, there is no doubt in my mind that Cutler is the victor in that category. He has arguably the strongest arm in the NFL, and is a pure playmaker on the field. 

However, the downside to Cutler is his arm strength: the fact is that he turns the ball over far too much. The Broncos were at the bottom of the league in terms of turnover differential in 2008, at an awful -17. 

Cutler averages an interception per game in his career (37 games) and has also lost eight fumbles. 

In 2008, Cutler turned the ball over 20 times compared to being sacked only 11. 

Orton has been a leader on the field for the Chicago Bears over the last four seasons.  In 33 starts in the NFL, Orton is an impressive 21-12 as the starter, including 15-2 in the frozen, windy mess that is Soldier Field.

In 2008, Orton threw for 2,972 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. To compare the same stat as Cutler, Orton is 18-4 as the starter when his defense allows less than 21 points. 

Also, if Orton had been the quarterback of Denver's offense in 2008, and they had thrown the exact same amount of passes, the Broncos' new signal caller would have thrown 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He also rushed for three touchdowns last season, one more than Cutler.

Some have speculated that Orton is a beneficiary of good defense as well as a stout running game, but statistics prove that assessment to be very, very false.

In 2008, Chicago's defense ranked 16th in points allowed (21.9), 21st in total defense (334.7 ypg), and 30th in pass defense (241.2 ypg). Also, Chicago's "potent" rushing attack amassed a whopping 104.6 points per game, good for 24th in the NFL. 

Compare those stats to Denver, where Cutler's rushing attack ranked 12th in the NFL in yards per game at 116.4. Cutler was also sacked nearly a third of the times that Orton hit the dirt. 

Denver actually had a better pass defense than Chicago in 2008, ranking 26th in the NFL in that particular category. However, they were atrocious against the run, and finished in the bottom five of every other major category.

Denver's remedy?

How about 11 picks in the up-coming draft, four new veteran starters, a change of pace with the 3-4 defensive scheme, and the addition of defensive guru Mike Nolan as coordinator.

Courtesy of the Chicago Bears, Denver now picks twice in round one of the draft, holding the 12th and 18th picks.

Throw away any possibility of Denver trading up for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. If Pete Carroll thinks it was too early for him to come out, why should the Broncos pass on a chance to improve their defense to get him?

In the first round, it can be expected that the Broncos will use both picks on the front seven of their defense. 

The main targets? LSU five-technique defensive end Tyson Jackson and USC linebacker's Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing.

The Broncos can draft Jackson at 12 overall, and Brian Cushing at 18 overall and you can fully expect them to be opening day starters for the orange and blue. 

In round two, Denver holds the 48th overall pick. With Jackson and Cushing already on board, the Broncos can focus on their defensive backfield. The team has recently worked out Alabama safety Rashad Johnson, and it's likely the team will strongly consider drafting him. 

Johnson is a tough player who has been an All-American for the Crimson Tide, thus making him the perfect fit for Denver.

In the third round, the Broncos can address both offense and defense by adding two Big Ten stars in Ohio State wide receiver Brian Robiskie as well as Iowa defensive end Mitch King.

Robiskie is a great fit, and with his size (6'3") and speed (sub 4.5 second 40-yard dash) could be an adequate replacement for Brandon Marshall who is facing a suspension. 

King is a stud defensive tackle out of Iowa who really has a nose for the backfield. He was an All-American in his own right, and would be an excellent candidate to eventually start at defensive end or rush outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense.

In the fourth round, the Broncos can go big once again, adding nose tackle Sammie Hill, a 6'4" 329 pound behemoth out of Stillman college. Hill is very athletic for his size, and would fill a great need at nose tackle for Denver.

In round five, the Broncos could look at the defensive side of the ball once more, taking former South Carolina star linebacker Jasper Brinkley.

In the sixth round, Denver could address the future of their quarterback position by drafting former Alabama product John Parker Wilson, who seems like the exact type of player McDaniels would love to mold behind Kyle Orton and Chris Simms.

In the seventh round, the Broncos could go big yet again, taking defensive tackle Vaughn Martin out of Western Ontario, as well as center Johnathan Luigs of Arkansas.

With that draft, here is how Denver's updated depth chart would look:

Offense

QB:  8 Kyle Orton  2 Chris Simms  12 John Parker Wilson

RB:  28 Correll Buckhalter  32 LaMont Jordan  29 J.J. Arrington  42 Ryan Torain

FB:  22 Peyton Hillis  46 Spencer Larsen

WR:  15 Brandon Marshall  10 Jabar Gaffney

WR:  19 Eddie Royal  80 Brian Robiskie  16 Chad Jackson

Slot WR:  14 Brandon Stokley

TE:  89 Daniel Graham  88 Tony Scheffler  87 Jeb Putzier

LT:  78 Ryan Clady  76 Tyler Polumbus

LG:  50 Ben Hamilton  61 Mitch Erickson

C:  62 Casey Wiegmann  60 Johnathan Luigs

RG:  73 Chris Kuper  67 Kory Lichtensteiger

RT:  74 Ryan Harris  71 Clint Oldenburg

Defense

RE:  93 Tyson Jackson  75 Carlton Powell

NT:  91 Ronny Fields  98 Sammie Lee Hill  99 Vaughn Martin

LE:  79 Marcus Thomas  77 Mitch King

OLB:  52 Brian Cushing  59 Wesley Woodyard  96 Tim Crowder

MLB:  55 D.J. Williams  46 Spencer Larsen

MLB:  54 Andra Davis  51 Jasper Brinkley

OLB:  92 Elvis Dumervil  94 Jarvis Moss  95 Darrell Reid

CB:  24 Champ Bailey  26 Jack Williams

CB:  21 Andre' Goodman  25 Josh Bell  40 Rashod Moulton

FS:  49 Rashad Johnson  23 Renaldo Hill

SS:  20 Brian Dawkins  36 Josh Barrett

Special Teams

K:  5 Matt Prater

P:  1 Brett Kern

LS:  66 Lonie Paxton

KR:  13 Jayson Foster  29 J.J. Arrington

PR:  19 Eddie Royal  80 Brian Robiskie 

With a potential draft such as that, the Denver Broncos not only appear competitive, they appear like a team that could contend with the San Diego Chargers for the AFC West division title. 

Perhaps the Cutler trade was not such a bad thing. Maybe Shanahan leaving was not so out of the question. Maybe, just maybe, McDaniels has set this team up to win, and sooner rather than later.