The 2009 NFL Draft: Top 10 Steals

I couldn't give two suds about a player's combine numbers.

All you hear about is how well Mark Sanchez did at his pro day workout, with no pads or any 300 pound linemen hell-bent on trying to kill him.

They actually test to see a quarterback's jumping ability. What the hell does a high jump have to do with playing QB in the NFL?

How high do you think Johnny Unitas would have jumped at the combine, or Joe Willy Namath?

Do you base your decisions on who's going to win a boxing match by seeing which player rows a boat faster, or which one could throw darts more accurately? 

The whole system is contrived so that scouts can have something to blame when their judgment of a player goes insanely wrong; "I don't know why he isn't sacking the quarterback, he had a great long jump."

I base all of my predictions on how a player will perform at the next level by one criterion and one alone—game performance.

I don't even go off stats, because those numbers can be incredibly skewed. Need an example? How about every Mike Leach and June Jones QB in the past 10 years. 'Nuff said.

So this is a list of 10 overlooked players I think will achieve in the NFL.

1. Jarret Dillard, WR, Rice (projected third round)

Dillard is 5'11", 168 pounds, and runs a sub-4.4 40 yard dash.

So far, I think the knock on him is that he's undersized, but anyone who has ever seen him play knows this kid is for real.

He's set just about every school receiving record in what used to be a pretty bad offensive school.

If Dillard is still available by the third round, look for a team to scoop him up with one of the first five picks in that round. He's a special player with great hands and runs great routes.

2. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss (projected late first round)

The knock on Oher is that his academics have been a problem to say the least. I want to know what he scored on the Wonderlic test at the Combine.

That might be responsible for him dropping into possibly the second round. Anyone who has read his biography The Blind Side knows this kid has overcome obstacles in life that you or I could never even imagined.

He didn't even know his real name until he was 16. This kid is one of the most naturally talented left tackles I have ever seen, and he should be a mainstay on an NFL offensive line for the next 10 years.

The team that drafts him gets an instant starter at the game's most important position. He's a top five pick in my draft book.

3. Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut (projected second round)

If you watched a UCONN game at all this past season, you know who Donald Brown is. Why? Because they handed the ball off to him on nearly every play.

I wouldn't be surprised if a team calls his name out late in the first round. The knock on him is he's supposedly a little undersized at 5'10", 210 pounds, and thought to be a product of his offensive system.

I don't buy that at all.

He's got a great motor, he never wears down, and he has great vision when he hits the hole. He's one of those guys that never gets hit for negative yards by the first defender. That's a big criteria for me. After contact, he still moves forward.

He will be a solid pro back. He won't be making any Pro Bowls, or make any fancy moves. He just grinds out yards on the ground, and I think that that has become a little overlooked recently by draft pundits who go for flash and dazzle.

4. James Casey, TE/FB/H-Back, Rice (projected late third round)

Can you have two draft day steals from Rice on the same list? I think you can.

Casey plays all over the field. In one game against Southern Miss, Casey played seven different positions. He's the type of guy that would volunteer for a suicide mission if your unit was trapped behind enemy lines.

He played minor league baseball for a couple of years, and watching him play, you can tell he's got a maturity level that will allow him to be productive in the NFL.

He sort of reminds me of Frank Wychek. He can block, run, and most of all he has great hands. I think he'll probably drop to the fourth round, strictly because he doesn't excel at one single position.

5. James Davis, RB, Clemson (projected sixth round)

There's a big knock on Davis because of production at Clemson, but I can't see why he's only projected to go in the sixth round.

He split carries in the backfield with a running back who will be a first round pick in next year's draft, C.J. Spiller.

More and more, the NFL is turning to an offensive system that relies on two running backs, and I think Davis will fit this mold very nicely.

I saw great things out of him during his playing career at Clemson. I loved his shiftiness, and I thought his second gear break away speed was very good.

I think he's going to be one of those players that your NFL team takes in the late fifth round and is going to make a mark in his rookie year.

What do I mean by that? If he goes into the right system (two backs), I think he'll have at least five hundred yards on the ground. And in my book, that's awfully good.

6. Sen Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn (projected late second round)

Riddle me this Batman; after the 2007 college football season, everyone and their mother had Marks as being a sure fire first-round NFL pick.

What happened since that time? His school was absolutely atrocious, sorry Auburn fans, and teams made sure they knew where he was on the field before every play.

Now all of a sudden, Marks is an afterthought as possibly a late second round pick. I don't buy it.

The guy is still a legitimate first rounder in my book, regardless of how well media darling DT'S B.J. Raji and Peria Jerry did at the combines.

In my opinion, Marks is the top DT in this draft, bar none. The team that has him fall into their lap with their second-round pick will be pleasantly surprised.

7. Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech (projected second round)

You can have your Connor Barwins and your Brian Orakpos in the first round. For my money, the first two DE's that should be taken are Johnson first and Robert Ayers second.

Johnson is a flat out freak of nature. He's 6'6", 258 pounds, and moves like he's riding rocket powered roller skates.

He's smooth and a force to be reckoned with. Ask any ACC quarterback, and I'm sure he'll say he's happy that Johnson's going to the big show.

The knock on him is that he's purely a pass rushing defensive end. I don't buy that one either. I see a couple of Pro Bowls in his future.

8. Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati (projected third round)

Where is the love for Mike Mickens?

All the talk this winter and spring has been about Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis, and D.J. Moore at the cornerback spot.

What about Mike? This kid could flat out play. So much so that QBs just stopped throwing in his general direction. You could watch entire Cincy games where Mickens didn't make one play on the ball. Why? He wasn't getting a chance.

The time to watch this kid shine during the year was late in the game, when QBs were trying to get back in the game and were basically forced to throw Mickens' way. Then you got to see his closing speed, which is amazing.

Instant starter in the defensive backfield on the team that drafts him, and really, barring all the other crap, that's all that matters.

9. Pat White, QB, West Virginia (projected third round)

Where do you even start with this kid?

First and foremost, he wasn't heavily recruited out of high school in Alabama and all he did after that was become one of the most dominant quarterbacks in the history of the Big East conference.

It's going to be interesting to see where an NFL team take Pat White, and what scheme they use to get the ball in his hands.

I believe he can be an NFL quarterback, just not an every down type of Peyton Manning type player. If a team uses Pat White in third-down situations, where they can utilize his passing and rushing skills, I think he's going to be a very effective weapon in the NFL.

He's going to invent a new type of position, the same way the scat back (third down) was created. I'm going to call it "The Cat-Back" position, a play off of Gus Malzahn's Wildcat formation which made its way into the NFL last year.

The Cat-Back is a tweener that can run like a slot receiver and make the 15 yard out throws if he has to.

Bring him in on 3rd-and-6 or inside the red zone, and you force defenses to keep the safety off of the line of scrimmage and still play coverage.

Put into the right system, Pat White could really excel in the NFL.

10. Rashard Johnson, S, Alabama (projected third round)

Did anyone watch Bama play this year? Their D was great and Johnson was a major reason why.

At 5'11", 203 pounds, the knock on him is his open field tackling ability and this might drop him into the third round.

I'm sorry, I couldn't disagree more.

Johnson is an exceptional player with great hands who always seems to be around in the pass defense department.

The team that grabs him is going to get a great player that can be a leader on the field and a quarterback of the defense. Bama is really going to miss having Johnson in their secondary in 2009. This kid is a steal.

As with everything else about sports predictions, only time will tell,  but this is my two cents for what it's worth.