Strikeforce Set To Establish Itself as a Major Player: Preview

By its very nature, mixed martial arts is a sport that attracts trend-followers and copy-catters.

Falling into the trendiest of sports categories-"Extreme"-it stands to reason that upon mainstream exposure the followers have hopped on the MMA bandwagon with their own version of clothing, MMA gyms, and yes-even fighting promotions.

Despite the very public blueprints of success within MMA (see TapouT), the vast majority of hot new items within the MMA industry either reach limited success or flatout crash and burn.

The poster boy for failed MMA promotions of course is Elite XC, which stuck the nail in its own coffin the moment they decided put talent on the promotional backburner and lean on an Internet sensation for ratings.

Fortunately for true MMA fans, a former Elite XC business partner is still alive, thanks to a business plan that is based on building its own brand and not trying to challenge the UFC for promotional supremacy.

Ah, blessed be thy MMA fan, for San Jose, CA-based Strikeforce. Even more blessed are the numerous quality MMA fighters that were left in limbo with Elite XC's crash, who are now competing under the Strikeforce banner.

And seeing as it is Strikeforce's first card of 2009, and first card on the Showtime network, what better way for myself to knock off the writing-rust than to serve up a preview and analysis of their upcoming Apr. 11 fight card?

What started off on paper as one of the best cards of the year so fa—featuring several current or former top-10 ranked fighters—has lost a bout to injury and another for the sake of a future main event. Regardless, promoter Scott Coker and company are delivering a solid product next weekend.

Starting with the bottom of the main card and leading up:

LUKE ROCKHOLD (3-1) VS. BUCK MEREDITH (3-2)

An up-and-comer training out of San Jose, CA-based American Kickboxing Academy, Luke Rockhold is another fighter that bolsters AKA's already scary roster in the 170-185 pound range, that most fans simply haven't heard of yet.

Having won a jiu-jitsu world title as a blue belt two years ago, it's no secret that Rockhold's comfort zone is on the mat. But a glance at Team Quest's Buck Meredith suggests the same could be said for him, as two of his three wins have come by submission.

It's hard to predict the outcome of this fight based off their short records.

Rockhold wins by...

Having seen him in person on a few occasions, I can say with some certainty that the lengthy Rockhold has some freakish athletic talent, and despite the one KO-blemish on his record, it's a safe bet that his striking is coming along real well especially considering the camp he is with.

However, more likely than not, Rockhold's best bet is to take this fight to the ground, where he has numerous submissions at his disposal to finish the fight.

Meredith wins by...

Being a Team Quest product, it's likely that Meredith has a solid wrestling base and should be able to pull Rockhold to the ground if he wishes to go there.

What remains to be seen is if he has the submission-defense to go along with the wrestling skills-if so he could grind out a decision with ground and pound and dominant positioning.

Prediction

Meredith has fallen pray to a triangle--loss before (Yuki Sasaki in 2004) and I see this being a likely ending given Rockhold's talents.

BRETT "THE GRIM" ROGERS (8-0) VS. RON HUMPHREY (5-0)

The first thing that jumps out at you about this fights is the goose eggs in the loss columns for both fighters. Making this fight even more exciting is when you compare how each of the 13 bouts between the two of them were won: KO. Neither combatant has wasted time on decisions or bothered with a submission. Beautiful.

Either fighter wins by...

I could go much more in depth on all the ways either fighter won't win, but we can just assume we won't be seeing any Peruvian Neck-Ties or fancy calf-slicers in this...someone's getting put to sleep.

Prediction

Obviously it could go either way, but if I have to make a choice I'm going with "The Grim," if for no other reason than activity. Rogers has racked up more fights in less time than Humphrey and appears to be a talented heavyweight on the rise. Should Humphrey win, then Strikeforce has two heavyweights on the rise.

CRISTIANE "CYBORG" SANTOS (6-1) VS. HITOMI AKANO (14-5)

I'm not going to claim to be the Bob Costas of women's MMA, so a mildly-educated guess will have to suffice. The Japanese "Girlfight Monster," Akano, sports a respectable record at 14-5, but what jumps out to me most is her record against prominent American fighters (losses against Amanda Buckner and Tara LaRosa and a victory over Debi Purcell).

"Cyborg" has made a quick name for herself by showcasing her striking ability in Elite XC last year. Obviously this is suppose to be a tune-up fight for Santos en route to what would likely be the biggest women's bout to date against Gina Carano...but will it be a tune-up?

Cyborg wins by...

KO or referees stoppage. Her style is pretty straight foward—a furious serving of kicks and punches with the intent to finish. No doubt she plans on chopping down Akano's legs and testing her chin.

"Girlfight Monster" wins by...

Submission. Glance over her record, and her five losses are by decision, suggesting she can take a beating, and the majority of her wins are by submission. She could eke out a decision just by keeping Cyborg off her feet.

Prediction

In what many will see as an upset, Akano pulls out a submission victory. She has yet to be knocked out in nearly 20 fights, and her resume is packed with armlockvictories. Look for her to drag Cyborg to the mat and into her world, and (for now) ruin the Cyborg vs. Gina hype.

BENJI "RAZOR" RADACH (19-4) VS. SCOTT "HANDS OF STEEL" SMITH (14-5)

Did this card lose some luster when Jake Shields was moved from it to headline Strikeforce's next card? Or did the break of lightweight champ Josh Thomson's leg break your interest in this card? This could be the matchup that saves the show. Both of these UFC vets are stone-cold locks for fireworks.

Radach goes back to the early UFC-Zuffa days when they were just getting back on pay-pe-view and he was fighting in their 170-pound division in his early 20s. In 19 career victories, he's bothered to submit only one of his foes.

Smith earned his "Hands of Steel" moniker by pummeling his way through the local organizations in California from the early part of the decade. His last-gasp KO of Pete Sell could be the ultimate highlight in UFC history.

Radach wins by...

It takes more than well-timed cross or wild haymaker to put Smith away for good. When Smith loses, its been by a rear-naked choke or a well-earned beating. Radach needs to drop Smith and keep him down with successive punches to win this bout.

Smith wins by...

KO. Radach has been dropped before, and if anyone can one-punch KO him, it's Scott Smith.

Prediction

Obviously it could go either way, but I'm thinking a bit of a hometown advantage could come into play here as Smith is likely to have a lot of people making the trek from Sacramento to support him in the Bay Area. I foresee Smith pulling out a second round KO.

MAIN EVENT: FRANK SHAMROCK (23-9-2) VS NICK DIAZ (18-7)

Since returning to action in 2006, Frank Shamrock has been hard to read. We can't take anything away from his comeback fight against Cesar Gracie, other than Cesar would have been wise to stroll into the cage that night relying more on experience, and less on just balls.

His next fight against Renzo Gracie wound up as a colossal disappointment, as Renzo was content to secure the takedown and ride it out and Shamrock conveniently forgot which strikes were illegal.

In regards his "I'm old school" claims when asked why he "forgot the rules" and kneed Renzo Gracie in the back of the head, I'd still love to get Frank's response to how that fight would have gone if Renzo was allowed to knee HIM in the head from the top...but I digress.

Coming off that performance, I was convinced Shamrock was done, and Phil Baroni was just the guy to sing him his swan song.

News leading up to the fight that Shamrock had possibly blown his knee out in training only re-enforced this sentiment. Of course, the former UFCchamp dominated each aspect of the fight in impressive fashion, out-striking and out grappling the "New York Bad Ass" (practically on one knee no less) before finishing him.

What can we take from his fight with Cung Le? Other than Le's gas is better than I thought it would be, Cung also kicks incredibly hard. No shame in bowing out with a broken arm.

On the other side of the cage from Shamrock will be an incredibly talented natural-born fighter who has an "old school" style in his own right. I imagine if Nick Diaz could fight in the old school rules—no time limits, go until one man quits—he'd be right in his element.

Frequently in his career he has lamented on how he doesn't know how to fight for the judges scorecards, but only to finish. His style proves that. In seven career losses, he has only been stopped twice, and once was on cuts. 

Diaz has proven an equal ability to dish out a beating as well as take one, and he can apply a sport-style jiu-jitsu game to MMAbetter than anyone I have seen. Of course, whether in competition or on the mic, whether on purpose or not, he's always worth watching.

Shamrock wins by...

There's a chance he could KO Diaz, but I highly doubt it. Nick can take not only a punch, but a lot of them. Some fans claim he was exposed by KJ Noons, but Noons was a better striker taking on a sucked-out Diaz at 160 pounds.

In this weight class (or at this catch weight I should say), Diaz will be harder to hurt and harder stop. But that will be of little concern to Shamrock. We saw him out-gas a 220-pound Tito Ortiz many years ago, and while he has claimed in interviews that he wants to finish Diaz early, there's little doubt he'll have no problem out-striking him to a decision.

Diaz wins by...

Improved wrestling. Frank Shamrock never had much in the way of takedowns, and with a busted up knee these days his takedowns have gone by the wayside. Diaz usually chooses to box until he is taken down, and then his jiu-jitsu kicks in.

The greatest disappointment in the two Frank Shamrock-Gracie fights was that there was never a real exchange of grappling skills in either fight.

Is there any doubt that the Gracies would love to prove their style still dominates two generations into MMA, with a submission over a Shamrock no less? Frank loves talking about 'stories'—how about that one?

Will Diaz want to prove his grappling is superior? Shamrock has exceptional submission defense, but at the same time his chances of catching Diaz with a sub are pretty slim as well. But if Diaz gets on top of him, he stands a good chance of pounding out a decision.

Think the Renzo Gracie fight but without the stalling.

Prediction

No matter who they are rooting for, most fans seem convinced that one of these guys is going to light up the other in quick fashion. I see it much closer than that. I think they match up quite well, with Diaz' youth and brash confidence clashing with the confidence that Shamrock has built over the years as an MMApioneer.

In the end, I have to go with the better, smarter athlete. I see Shamrock using the clock and scorecards to his advantage and pulling out a decision.