Is Peyton Manning Really Responsible for the Colts' Poor Playoff Record?

In many circles, there’s one thing almost certain to come up first when Peyton Manning is mentioned. 

It’s not him being the quarterback with the highest career points-per-game average as a starter. 

It’s not his record nine seasons with at least 4,000 passing yards or his record six consecutive seasons with at least 4,000 passing yards. 

It’s not his record 11 consecutive seasons with at least 25 touchdown passes, his record 13 consecutive games with at least two touchdown passes, or his record five consecutive games with at least four touchdown passes. 

It’s not his record four career games with a perfect passer rating or his record 121.1 single-season passer rating either.

It has something to do with winning, but it isn’t his record six consecutive seasons with at least 12 wins or record seven seasons with at least 12 wins.

It has something to do with the playoffs, but it isn’t his record six career playoff games with at least 300 yards passing or his record two playoff games with at least 400 yards passing.  It’s not even his record 360 passing yards in the first half of a playoff game.  

It isn’t his record two career playoff games with at least 30 completions or his record seven consecutive playoff games with at least 20 completions either.

It has something to do with being a clutch performer, but it isn’t him having led the biggest comeback in conference championship game history.   Nor is it his numerous fourth-quarter comebacks and comebacks from deficits of two touchdowns or more during the regular season.

It’s the Colts' 7-8 playoff record with him at the helm.

So is the Colts 7-8 playoff record really Peyton Manning’s fault? 

Many a supporter of Peyton Manning and other quarterbacks like him have argued that defense, run support, and special teams play a huge role in a team’s postseason success.  In other words, the better team wins, not necessarily the team with the better quarterback.

Peyton Manning’s detractors have argued that the Colts' playoff record rests on Manning’s shoulders because he simply hasn’t been able to get it done with the season on the line.

So just how much does the rest of the team matter? 

I compiled playoff statistics from the 2005 season through the 2008 season to create a base line with 44 playoff games.

Quarterbacks won over 75 percent of the time when posting a passer rating of at least 90 with a combined 22-7 record. 

On the other hand, Peyton Manning has lost all three of his playoff games since the 2005 playoffs in which he posted a passer rating of at least 90 (3-3 in his career). 

Teams that rushed for at least 125 yards won over 74 percent percentof the time with a 20-7 combined record.  The Colts have gone undefeated when they rush for at least 125 yards with Manning at the helm, posting a 4-0 record in Manning’s career.

Teams that allowed a passer rating of 90 or more won less than 25 percent of the time with a 7-22 combined record.  The Colts have won more than 33 percent of the time with Manning at the helm when allowing a passer rating of 90 or more with a 2-4 record in Manning’s career.

Teams that allowed 125 rushing yards or more won less than less than 26 percent of the time with a 7-20 combined record.  The Colts have won more than 28 percent of the time with Manning at the helm when allowing 125 rushing yards or more, with a 2-5 record in Manning’s career.

If that last comparison seems too close, that’s because six out of those seven games involved the Colts allowing at least 165 rushing yards. 

Teams that allowed 165 rushing yards or more lost every single time with a combined record of 0-11.  The Colts have won over 16 percent of the time with Manning at the helm when allowing 165 rushing yards or more with a 1-5 record in Manning’s career.

With the Colts winning more than normal in these various situations with Manning at the helm, but far less even when Manning posts a passer rating of at least 90, one has to wonder what the Colts' playoff record might look like with Manning under center if they were more successful at running the ball and stopping the opposing offense.

So maybe the fact that the Colts have been outrushed by at least 100 yards in five out of their eight playoff losses with Manning leading the way doesn’t fall squarely on Manning’s shoulders. 

You see a team has only been outrushed by 100 or more yards in eight out of the 44 playoff games since 2005—which is less than 19 percent of the time compared to over 33 percent of the Colts playoff games with Manning at the helm during his career—and not a single one of those eight teams on the wrong end of the stick won those playoff games either.

We have already established that teams that allow an opponent passer rating of 90 or more don’t win very often either, so maybe the fact that the Colts allowed an opponent passer rating of over 90 in two out of those remaining three playoff losses for the Colts in Manning’s career don’t fall squarely on Manning’s shoulders either. 

After all Manning posted a passer rating of over 90 in both of those games himself even though his team was outrushed by over 50 yards and he was facing two defenses that combined to limit their other playoff opponents in their respective years to ratings of 67.4, 66.4, 67.8, 53.5, and 66.4.

I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen another team essentially lose a game to a punter, or for that matter think of another quarterback off the top of my head who has lost twice in the playoffs with missed field goals at the end of regulation or in overtime. 

When’s the last time a team opened a playoff game by giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown on the very first play of the game?  When’s the last time a team almost wasted 32 second half points by giving up 231 kickoff return yards in a playoff game?

Don’t worry special teams, I didn’t forget about you—though many have.

So has Peyton Manning simply failed to perform, or has he managed to perform better than normal given tougher than normal circumstances?

Has Manning not done enough to meet expectations, or are the expectations simply set much too high?