Malaysia GP Preview: Will Brawn GP Dominate Again?
The teams and drivers have no time to relax as the F1 circus heads straight to Sepang, for the second round of the F1 2009 world championship.
Sepang has been on the F1 calendar since 1999, and is one of the most modern facilities on the calendar.
Sepang is very different from Melbourne, and it is here that we will really begin to see the true pecking order.
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In the past the order has turned on its head in Sepang, 2007 is one of the best examples. In Australia Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen romped to an easy victory. In Malaysia, Mclaren turned the tables on Ferrari and utterly dominated to a 1-2 finish. In 2008 Lewis Hamilton eased to victory in Melbourne. However Ferrari then flourished in Sepang and Mclaren all of a sudden limped home well behind Kimi Raikkonen.
Melbourne is a temporary street circuit, whereas Sepang is a proper racing circuit with completely different tarmac to the public roads in Albert Park.
Sepang also has a wider variety of corners to challenge the teams and drivers. There is a mix of quick and slow corners, and there are also two long straights parallel to each other. Finding the right setup is usually a compromise, which will deliver speed throughout the lap.
One of the biggest features of Sepang is the heat and humidity. This makes the race a real marathon for the drivers. It can reach ridiculously hot temperatures inside the cockpit, and the drivers are wearing their full race suits and protective gear. Drivers lose a significant amount of weight over the course of the grand prix distance.
The drivers do have their water bottle. Unfortunately in this sheer heat the water will become warm like tea very quickly, and be of no aid to the drivers.
The drivers normally arrive in Malaysia as early as possible, to get themselves acclimated to these challenging conditions.
The heat also takes its toll on the machinery. Engines are worked very hard here. We have seen many engine blow-ups throughout the history of the Malaysian GP. Cooling is a major issue. We will see all the teams making alterations and putting as many vents and holes in the car as possible to let the air in to cool the cars down, particularly the engines.
Tyres are another major issue. These slick tyres seem to be very difficult to nurse. They wear extremely easily, particularly the softer tyre compounds. In Melbourne the super soft tyres lost performance very rapidly. In Sepang the two tyre compounds chosen by Bridgestone will be the soft tyre and the hard tyre. Even just looking after the hard tyre will be difficult. The soft tyre will no doubt end up being a nightmare to look after. Bridgestone have already warned the teams and drivers about this.
The ability for the car and driver to look after the tyres is going to be crucial this weekend. With such a hot air temperature, the track temperature will be roasting.
As an added problem Malaysia is well famed for its sudden heavy downpours. That could make the Sepang challenge tougher still.
At such a demanding track the best cars ought to really be able to flex their muscles, more than they did in Melbourne. On the other hand this track will demonstrate the cars that have major weaknesses, again more than in Melbourne.
The most important corners include turn 14 which leads onto the long back straight, and then the hairpin at the bottom of the back straight. This leads onto the equally long pit straight.
You want to get good speed out of both these corners so you achieve a good straight line speed. Time can also be won in the fiddly turns one and two, and a good run out of turn three heading towards turn four.
Sepang is a good track for overtaking. There are three places; you can have a go in the hairpin at the bottom of the back straight. You can also have a go down the pit straight. Throughout the years at Sepang we have seen cars side by side through turns one and two (as well as the odd tangle or two). If you get a good run out of turn two and through turn three, then turn four also presents an opportunity.
The new aero regulations seemed to work very effectively in Melbourne, which is a tricky track to overtake on. We should see even more great wheel to wheel battles here. This should also be the track where we see the true advantage of the KERs system.
Is there anything that could stop Brawn GP this weekend?
There is no doubt that Brawn GP is the form team at the moment. In Melbourne, they showed that their testing pace was real. In fact, they are perhaps even quicker than first anticipated. Jenson Button beat the first non Brawn GP car in qualifying by 0.6 seconds, and on heavier fuel. Fuel corrected Brawn GP were about 0.8-0.9 seconds quicker in qualifying trim alone.
In the race Jenson Button had plenty in hand. I don’t think we saw the true pace of Brawn GP in the race. The team have hinted that there is more to come.
At the moment they are a long way ahead of the pack. Sn such a demanding track as Sepang, Brawn GP ought to be able to extend their advantage. Brawn GP have high levels of down force, and importantly look after their tyres extremely well. This puts the team in a very strong position over the long race stints.
So what could prevent Brawn GP from taking another 1-2 finish?
Reliability will probably be the main concern. Brawn GP started pre-season testing very late so are potentially more vulnerable to the punishing nature of the Sepang track. Engines are the most at risk, but in Mercedes Brawn GP have one of the most reliable engines around. Therefore this might not end up being such an issue to worry about after all.
The other thing Brawn GP has to avoid is complacency. It would be very easy for the team to think they practically have the race in the bag, and for a few silly errors to creep in. However you can be sure Ross Brawn won’t let any of his team slip up, and they will be fully focused on the job.
The other big factor that could de-rail Brawn GP is the possibility of rain. When it rains really anything can happen, and a wet track reduces the advantage that the quickest cars have. The race will then be more down to the drivers, and we will see if F1’s wet weather specialists can join Brawn GP at the front.
However Brawn GP has two great wet weather drivers themselves. Button won his first GP in Hungary 2006 in the wet conditions, and Barrichello is also a wet weather expert. He put a Jordan on pole at a damp Spa in 1994. He took a Stewart to 2nd place in a soaking Monaco in 1997. His first win like Jenson’s, had some rain in the mix too.
So even if it rains making life harder for Brawn GP, both Button and Barrichello have the necessary experience in those sorts of conditions to excel.
Brawn GP also don’t use the KERs system. On a track with longer straights, KERs is more likely to be an advantage at the start and during the race. What could pose Brawn GP a threat, is if a team like Ferrari (who have KERs) can qualify right behind them. This means that Ferrari could mix in with them down the long run to turn 1, and potentially get ahead. Jenson Button mentioned last weekend that overtaking a car that uses KERs would be quite difficult.
Who is leading the chasing pack?
The pack behind Brawn GP are very closely matched indeed. Only a few tenths at most separate the likes of Red Bull, Ferrari, BMW Sauber, Toyota, Williams, and Renault. It’s extremely difficult to predict.
Red Bull looked pretty impressive in Melbourne. Vettel was Button’s main challenger throughout the race. Over a single lap the car was particularly impressive. Newey’s beautiful machine really does have the pace to match.
Between all of the protests and penalties Toyota also demonstrated that their car was quick, especially in the race when Trulli drove from the back to third place. Williams also showed that their car had the potential to challenge near the front.
BMW Sauber and Ferrari were perhaps the main disappointments. Ferrari had a nightmare weekend in Melbourne. Their car was over 1.0 second off the pace in qualifying. The pace was better in the race but still not good enough. The management of the tyres wasn’t as good as we have come to expect from Ferrari.
I am sure they will be stronger in Malaysia. Ferrari has always gone well around here, and came back strongly here last season. Although it’s very difficult to see them repeating last season’s dominant performance.
BMW Sauber seemed to lack grip all weekend in Melbourne, but almost lucked into a victory challenge, by getting their tyre tactics right due to the timing of the safety car.
This group is so tight that any of them could emerge as Brawn GP’s main challenger. It may well come down to the driver who does the best job, as to which of them gets to the front of this group. Which one of these cars has the best tyre management will also play a vital role in the race.
My prediction is that is it will be Red Bull and Ferrari, who are at the front of this pack this weekend right behind Brawn GP.
If Ferrari can get closer to Brawn GP on the grid, and use their KERs system at the start to good effect, they could give them a good run for their money at least.
Each weekend it could change though, as we see different cars being better suited to different tracks. The development race could also go a long way in re-shifting the order of this tight group of cars.
And what of the others?
Mclaren, Force India and Toro Rosso all showed good pace too. It just shows how tight the F1 grid is at the moment, if every team on the grid can challenge to finish in the points paying positions.
Mclaren did better than many expected, but in Sepang the extent of their current weaknesses will really be shown. It is here that we will find out how far off the pace they really are. It could be a very tough weekend for Hamilton and Kovalainen.
What about the twilight start and rain factor?
The race starts later than usual heading towards the evening. So again light could well be an issue for the drivers as it was in Melbourne. Although it shouldn’t be as big an issue here, as there aren’t big trees closely surrounding the track, leaving dark shadows.
The main change that the alteration of the time slot will have is that rain is more likely. Very often in the evening, after a hot afternoon in Sepang, there is a huge thunderstorm.
This would make it very difficult for the drivers, and affect the visibility. When those dark storm clouds come over, the light changes drastically.
Driving in the wet is also far trickier this season, as the cars have less down force. The drivers will have to work even harder than normal to keep these cars on the track in the wet. Apparently the cars now look spectacular to watch on a wet track.
It really would be the best wet weather drivers who would come out on top. So these include the likes of Button and Barrichello as we saw earlier, and Alonso, Vettel, and Hamilton to name a few. Rain could in fact be Mclaren’s saviour.
If it does get too wet though expect the safety car to come out or even a red flag. If it rains as badly as it can do here, then it would be dangerous to let the race continue. That would cause an issue, as delays mean it could start to get dark. That is the risk that comes with starting the race later, for the benefit of the European TV audience.
Another thing to look out for this weekend is the time differential between the wet tyres (which are the same as last season’s) and the dry slick tyres is larger. The slicks are two seconds quicker than last season’s dry grooved tyres. This means that as the track dries out there is a bigger award for switching to dry tyres at the right time. On the other side of the coin more time will be lost if you make the switch at the wrong time.
This could play a massive part in who wins the race, if we get a drying out track at some point. After it rains here, the track dries very quickly due to the heat, so it’s a realistic possibility.
My race prediction
If the race stays dry than I can’t see beyond another victory for Brawn GP. However I do fancy a stronger challenge from one of the chasing pack. I think the strongest challenge will come from a Ferrari driver.
If it rains on the other hand, then it really could go a number of ways.
So here is my top 3 race order.
1. Button
2. Raikkonen
3. Barrichello
It should be another thrilling, and memorable weekend of F1 action.
To read about why Brawn GP have been successful click on the link below.
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