Raptors Dish: Late Season Surge, Draft Prospects, and Summer Plans

The Raptors are not accidentally winning, or failing to tank. There’s a reason for this push, and it may not be as obvious to some as to others.

Like any business, the Raptors have to look at their financial situation. Colangelo has been on record saying that there was much parity in this draft between five and 15, further adding that there are many players he’s interested in drafting between 10—25. This opens the possibility of perhaps buying an additional draft pick. When asked if he would consider trading out of the lottery, Colangelo didn’t hesitate to say that it was certainly one possibility. Let’s add it up.

One statement in particular caught my ear. It was that Colangelo felt that if one could get similar players at five and 15, he seemed to favor picking fifteenth in this particular draft because of the salary assigned to the two picks. Now this isn’t to say that Colangelo prefers to pick fifteenth over fifth, but all things considered, he seems more concerned about the financial side of things than getting the highest pick possible.

For starters, the chances of season ticket renewals increase with every win, and the chances that fans will come to the remaining games this season is also better if they’re actually playing well and winning games. This is in no way to condone winning on the road, but the recent win streak the Raptors put together at home was quite a logically sound move.

Second, factor in the trade value of good players on bad teams. This could have been a great time to shut down Bosh, but there’s far more to be gained by show-casing him and showing the other teams who may want to trade for him that he’s healthy and back to being a productive player.

Thus, the positives of picking tenth instead of seventh are not strictly financial. Bosh looks better and healthier. MLSE is selling more tickets and stands a better shot at having a decent ticket renewal rate. Also, the Raptors pay less to the player they eventually pick despite the fact that they project that he will be more or less similar to players picked five picks higher.

Considering this economy, this has to be the major concern of this organization at the moment. This isn’t Mark Cuban, but instead a corporation which frowns on losing money at any cost. I imagine some high ranking MLSE executives  had Jermaine O’Neal’s face and his maximum contract on a dart board prior to February.

The Raptors would be wise to take Griffin if they luck out and pick No. 1, and they may indeed do that. However, after Griffin, there is a major fall-off with no sure-fire star players. Considering the Raptors are pleased with Calderon and Ukic, and seem content with bringing back Bargnani and Mensah-Bonsu, the clear choice for a draft pick would be a wing player, or a backup centre.  

I think there’s a fifty percent chance that Bosh is moved for a package involving an established wing player with some fillers or a few young prospects with a draft pick. They should look look to move some mistakes like Kapono and Banks with Bosh, but I have my doubts they’ll do this.

Finally, what exactly is available at the wing in the 2009 NBA draft? Some key names that jump out are James Harden, Gerald Henderson, Demar DeRozan, Tyreke Evans, Willie Warren, Chase Budinger, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Earl Clark.

If you're aiming for the best overall player now, clearly Harden has shown the polish to come in and make a difference immediately, and is mature enough to play third option to guys like Bosh and Bargnani.

If you're going for a home run prospect, a high risk-high reward pick, it doesn't get better than Demar DeRozan. The scouting reports are way off on this kid. Best case scenario, this kid turns into the second coming of Tracy McGrady. Worst case scenario, he ends up being a solid rotation guy with some serious defensive problems.

The fact is, outside of Griffin, and Rubio if he declares, there isn't one guy who jumps off the page. Harden is undersized, and is an underwhelming athlete at the next level. Jordan Hill is extremely raw, and Hasheem Thabeet while impressive might be less useful than he would have been fifteen years ago.

If you're picking at nine or 10, and DeRozan is on the board, provided that your scouting shows that he has some will to improve, this is one kid that's going to get at least one general manager fired. Hopefully, it won't be the one that picks him.