Warren Wells: On The Playing Field 1/6

Prologue

This is part one of a six part series on the talent, intensity and integrity of Mr. Warren Wells on the playing field, as an Oakland Raider, wide receiver.

The coach tells a player to go out there on the playing field and catch that ball, get a touchdown, and complete that “Hail Mary” pass.  The player does it and he does it so well and so often during his career that his numbers stand out even in the 21^st century.  Who was that player with intensity and player integrity—the kind of player whose results have taken many years to exceed.  His name is Warren Wells.

Take a good look at the players’ averages and tell me what you see.  During the first five years of Warren Wells’ career his averages were better than some of the Super Bowl XLIII wide receivers.  For example, if you compare Wells (1), Fitzgerald (2), Rice (3) and Boldin (4), clearly Wells’ average TD per season exceeds the others during the first five years.  Respectively, their numbers are: 

Analysis of the First Five Years

Clearly, Wells had more peaks than many of his senior colleagues during the first five year of their respective careers.  Furthermore, there is a quote, “Lamonica holds the Raiders single season record for touchdown passes, he threw for 34 in 1969.”  Of those 34 passes in 1969 the ratio of successful completions for Wells is shown

1969
Wells:                                  14/34 = .4117

Biletnikoff                           12/34 = .3529

Another way to look at the data is to calculate the rate of TDs over the career length.  Take a good look at this data:

Biletnikoff                           5.423     76/14 (total TDs over a 14 year career)

Wells                                     8.4         42/5   (total TDs over a 5 year career)

The data shows that Wells’ rate of touchdowns over a shorter career is more intense.  In fact, if you compare Wells to Biletnikoff and calculate the rate of Wells’ successful completions in four years with Oakland, it is .5526 (42/76).  Theoretically, we can conjecture that if Wells had continued with Oakland he would have had 84 touchdowns in 10 years, thereby exceeding Biletnikoff’s 76 touchdowns in 14 years. 

Logical thinking will force an analyst to consider that a quarterback cannot be a successful quarterback unless the ball he throws lands in the hands of a receiver for completion; otherwise, NO TOUCHDOWNS.   Therefore, the historical 34 touchdown passes in 1969 are directly correlated to the successful completions by Biletnikoff and Wells.  So, the arm of the hand of the quarterback is connected to the hand on the arm of the wide receiver who completes the passes. 

The Last Eight Seconds

This article discusses the statistics of two teammates who had overlapping careers during the first five years which is the focus of the analysis.  Another teammate George Blanda is recognized for last minute victories.  The research shows: “George Blanda played pro football for 26 seasons – longer than any other person. However, he’ll probably be remembered best for his 1970 season with the Oakland Raiders. That year, in a five-game period, George provided Oakland with four wins and one tie with last-second touchdown passes or field goals – at age 43.”  One of those 1970 games was played at Shea Stadium in December 1970.  I was at Shea Stadium witnessing the last minute, or better, last seconds turnaround on the football field.  Oaklandwas trailing the Jets in the last eight seconds of the fourth quarter and a 33-yard pass was successfully completed by Warren Wells to tie the score; and then the 43 year old George Blanda made the kick to give Oakland the miraculous victory.  A New York Times article documented the feat of Wells.  The article was titled, “Wells Hero in Final Reel of Oakland’s Late Show,” dated December 7, 1970, and written by Joseph Durso.  A photographer snapped a picture that still flashes in my mind.  The headlines hailed Wells as a hero in the last eight seconds and it was a powerful moment which I will never forget.  Also, Daryl Lamonica said on the Oakland Raiders website: 

Q: Is there one play that you can remember from your career?

Daryle Lamonica: I guess it would have to be a game against the New York Jets. We were behind by four points and it was the last play of the game. I was throwing into the end zone to Warren Wells, the ball was in the air, the gun went off and Warren made a great catch in the end zone for a touchdown. Source of photo: http://www.mmbolding.com/merger/merger_1970_Divisional_Playoffs.htm

A Team Player

A team player, whose heart was in it, and the passion for it gleamed on the playing field.  As a researcher reviews the outstanding years of the Oakland Raiders, something is poignant.  Look at this chart from http://www.raidersonline.com/  The year Warren Wells returned to football was 1967.  Before 1967 the Raiders were not in the playoffs.  From 1960 to 1966 the Raiders did not rank #1 in the West (AFL), but magically in 1967 through 1970 the team's performance was outstanding.  Those were the years of a dynamic trio which grabbed touchdowns, sometimes at the last minute, but nevertheless, they did it.  Note also that in 1971 the Raiders dropped back to rank #2 in the West (AFL) and then moved up to rank #1 again from 1972 through 1975.  A conjecture is that a “Yes We Can” attitude developed from 1967 to 1970, with Wells having participated in the AFL Championship and played in Super Bowl II against the Packers, but the Raiders lost the game, yet the team performed at a higher level than ever before during the Raiders’ history.  The team player, Warren Wells was there, and he will forever be remembered for belonging to the years that the Raiders made one of their first and biggest breakthroughs. Also note that during the Oakland Raiders team best year in that historic era, Biletnikoff had 40 receptions, 876 yards, an average of 21.9, and 5 touchdowns.  Wells had 13 receptions, 302 yards, an average of 23.2 and  6 touchdowns.  So, during the Raiders best year during that era, Wells data shows him to have been more intense in his average and in his total number of touchdowns.

1967	13	1	0	1st West (AFL)	Won AFL Championship Lost Super Bowl II (Packers)
1968	12	2	0	1st West (AFL)	Lost AFL Championship (Jets)
1969	12	1	1	1st West (AFL)	Lost AFL Championship (Chiefs)
Merged into NFL
1970	8	4	2	1st AFC West	Lost AFC Championship (Colts)

A Destiny of Connections

A remarkable reality is that the type of play that Daryle Lamonica remembers as the one play that stands out in his career is the one and only game and type of great play that I personally witnessed at Shea Stadium in New York on December 6, 1970.  Destiny is unfolding, and we must be dream catchers to embrace the history and accomplishments of a great team which included Warren Wells.

Senior Wide Receiver during the First Five Years

A numerical and graphical representation of the first five years of selected wide receivers is presented for comparisons. Otis Taylor’s rookie year was 1965; John Gilliam’s was 1967; Gary Garrison’s rookie year was 1966; Cliff Branch’s rookie year was 1972; and Warren Wells' rookie year was 1964.  The order of the presentation is Taylor, Gilliam, Garrison, Branch, and Wells.

WR                              Year**                        Avg                 TDs

Otis Taylor                  65 (1)               17.2                 5*

John Gilliam                67 (1)               12.0                 1

Gary Garrison             66 (1)               14.0                 4

Cliff Branch                72 (1)               13.7                 0

Warren Wells              64 (1)               10.5                 0

Otis Taylor                  66 (2)               22.4                 8*

John Gilliam                68 (2)               11.8                 0

Gary Garrison             67 (2)               17.5                 2

Cliff Branch                73 (2)               15.3                 3

Warren Wells              67 (2)               23.2*               6

Otis Taylor                  67 (3)               16.2                 11*

John Gilliam                69 (3)               19.2                 9

Gary Garrison             68 (3)               21.2                 10

Cliff Branch                74 (3)               18.2                 13

Warren Wells              68 (3)               21.5*               11*

Otis Taylor                  68  (4)              21.0                 4

John Gilliam                70  (4)              21.2                 5

Gary Garrison             69  (4)              20.1                 9

Cliff Branch                75  (4)              17.5                 9

Warren Wells              69  (4)              26.8*               14*

Otis Taylor                  69 (5)               17.0                 7

John Gilliam                71 (5)               19.9                 3

Gary Garrison             70 (5)               22.9                 12*

Cliff Branch                76 (5)               24.2*               12*

Warren Wells              70 (5)               21.5                 11

Five Year Yardage Comparisons

Branch             Wells

41                    12                    First year

290                  302*                Second year

1092                1137*              Third year

893                  1260*              Fourth year

1111                935                  Fifth year

The results of an assessment of yardage per ordinal year of Branch versus Wells show that Wells exceeded Branch during the second, third and fourth years of the first five years of their professional football career. Below is an incremental change chart of  differences for each ordinal year, indicating  /∆/ to assess the magnitude of the difference of each player’s data.

∆	Change	/∆/
41-21	20	20	Branch
290-302	-12	12	Wells
1092-1137	-45	45	Wells
893-1260	-360	360	Wells
1111-935	186	186	Branch

In the categories Y/G (yards per game), career average, and total touchdowns over total years, the results show:

Branch             Wells

47.5                 56.2*               Y/G

17.3                 23.1*               Career avg

4.785                  8.4*              TDs over total years

This parameter shows that Wells dominates in Y/G, career average and in average number of touchdowns divided by total years, using the first five years only.

An equation of proportions can give more insight on the rate at which Branch and Wells performed during the first five years of each career:

8685/14 = 3655/x      x = 5.891

The analysis shows that 5.891 is the number of years Wells would have needed to attain and exceed Branch’s 8685.  A conjecture is that it took Branch 14 years to get 8685 and at the rate Wells was going, it would have taken Wells only 5.891 years to reach 8685 or above.

Homer Jones versus Warren Wells—Changes in NFL Criteria

It was noted on Wikipedia (February 2009) that NFL criteria have been changed since the playing days of Homer Jones and Warren Wells.  It is therefore recommended that the discussion of relevant data be bracketed so that comparisons of historic data of senior players will not be subject to misinterpretation.  For example, if during the playing days of a senior professional player the guidelines or requirement of a minimum in a given category did not exist, then the said guideline should not be introduced during present day analysis. Furthermore there are mathematical ways to compare the data without regard to external criteria or present day changes in criteria.  For example,  here is a chart of data for Jones and Wells:

Year                Jones               Wells

                        YD                  YD

Year                Jones               Wells

                        Y/R                 Y/R

Overall                        22.3                 23.13

Year                Jones               Wells

                        TD                   TD

1                      0                      0 (tie)

2                      6                      6 (tie)

Comparisons during the First Five Years Only

The data shows that Jones  had a total of 36 touchdowns in 7 years.  Wells had 42 touchdowns in 5 years.  Jones had 27 touchdowns in the first five years of his career, compared to Wells’ 42 touchdowns in five years.  It can be noted also that Wells attained and exceeded 36 touchdowns in 4 years, whereas it took 3 more years of playing time for Jones to reach his maximum number of touchdowns which did not exceed Wells maximum,  although Jones had more playing time.