NFL Playoff Picks 2013: Prop Bets with Most Value in Championship Weekend

Insofar as handicapping is concerned, the traditional lines for Championship Weekend are a little underwhelming. 

A line of minus-3 for the home team usually implies that the teams are evenly matched. If the road team is giving points, or getting under three, that implies that Vegas values them higher. The same can be said for home teams giving more than three.

Per Sportsbook.ag, the current lines are New England minus-9 and San Francisco minus-5. That is, in Vegas' opinion, neither of this weekend's games feature evenly matched teams; the Patriots and 49ers are considerably stronger than their opponents. 

The high lines throw a wrench in many bettors' weekend plans. Nobody wants to lay that many points in a championship game, especially on the road, as is the case with San Francisco. 

Fortunately, a number of prop bets stand out as interest-piquing and might give bettors something else to wager on. Let's examine three of them.

*All Lines Courtesy of Sportsbook.ag*

Ravens vs. Patriots: Longest Touchdown UNDER 48.5 Yards (-115)

For all their showy offensive numbers, New England actually doesn't rely that heavily on big plays. The Patriots are at their best when they dink and dunk you down the field, creating manageable third-down opportunities, then capitalizing on Brady's short-to-medium accuracy.

Against Houston last week, the Pats had touchdowns of one, eight, eight, five and 33 yards. They also added field goals of 37 and 38 yards, which means the drive got, essentially, into the red zone before they converted it into points.

Baltimore could pose more of a big-play threat both offensively and on special teams. The Ravens tallied two 50-plus-yard passing touchdowns against the Broncos and allowed two 90-plus-yard kickoff returns for scores. Had you made this same bet in last week's game, you would have lost TWICE before the first-quarter clock even read 10:00.

But Bill Belichick is a maestro at taking away what his opponent does best. And this particular opponent, Joe Flacco, is at his best when throwing downfield. He and Torrey Smith are a dangerous combination but New England will explicitly game-plan around stopping them.

I see this playing out more like their Week 3 meeting in New England—no touchdowns over 25 yards. Both teams will be better served staying underneath.

49ers vs. Falcons: FALCONS Score First Points (+105)

The Falcons—when properly motivated—have a proclivity for starting fast at home. They began games against Tampa Bay and Arizona asleep at the wheel, but those were days where they hardly brought their A-game. Against the Saints, Giants and most recently the Seahawks, they've come out of the gate like a bat out of hell.

Here's how I see it. The first defensive possession for a home team in a playoff game is, in most cases, very difficult to score on. The crowd is at its loudest, and the adrenaline is at its absolute apex.

If the Falcons receive, that means they'll get two shots to score first. On their home turf, that is more than doable. Even if the Falcons kick off, I think they get the ball back quick and get one good chance at the first points.

So for this one, I'm banking hard on the crowd. It was too much for Russell Wilson and Co. to overcome early last weekend, and the Niners are no stranger to stumbling off the blocks in road games (See: 12/23, at Seattle).

With an underdog line on my side, that's definitely enough to make me bet.

Ravens vs. Patriots: Either Team WILL NOT Score in First 5.5 Minutes (Even)

Here's a look at time elapsed before the first score in recent Pats-Ravens games:

Game	Time Elapsed
2012-13 Week 3	7:12
2011-12 AFC Championship	9:11
2010-11 Week 6	8:32

It's pretty much as simple as that. As alluded to earlier, I'm comfortable writing off the Broncos-Ravens first quarter as an outlier. I don't think New England will be running back any kickoffs, and I don't think Torrey Smith will abuse New England the way he abused Champ Bailey.

Look for a typical Ravens-Patriots opening in this one. Both teams will try to feel each other out before mounting any serious offensives.