Come On, Seven!: Is the Raiders' Top Pick a Sure Bet for Stardom?

We are standing at the 2009 NFL Draft table in Radio City Music Hall. The dice have been passed to Al Davis for the seventh roll in this annual crapshoot. The table stakes are high, $19+ million in guaranteed money and a five-year, $49+ million contract.

Once the dice are thrown, Mr. Davis and the Raider Nation hope to walk away with the ultimate prize; a perennial all pro player who will significantly improve the franchise.

Since this is the seventh overall selection, the odds of getting that superstar must be pretty good, correct?

Sadly, drafting marquis players in the NFL is not an exact science, and recent history shows that the odds of landing a true superstar with this pick are not that good.

Consider the performance of players selected seventh overall the last 10 years.

Two of these players can be classified as marquis Pro Bowl players. From day one, Champ Bailey (1999 Draft) has been a shut down CB for the Redskins and Broncos, and Adrian Peterson (2007) has been a game changing RB for the Vikings. 

During this 10-year period, the seventh pick also yielded six solid players. Thomas Jones (2000), the much-traveled journeyman RB, and Roy Williams (2004), a solid WR on the struggling Lions both performed well, and each eventually appeared once in the Pro Bowl. 

Bryant McKennie (2002), the Vikings OT with an impressive consecutive game streak, and Andre Carter (2001), who has averaged 6.5 sacks per year with the 49ers and the Redskins are solid players, but with no Pro Bowl appearances. 

Byron Leftwich (2003), initially looked promising, but ankle injuries limited him to three 10+ game seasons, a career 80.3 QB rating, and no Pro Bowl appearances. The jury is still out on DT Sedrick Ellis (2008), who posted 30 tackles and four sacks in his first year with the Saints.

Finally, two players selected with the seventh pick failed to meet expectations, including Troy Williamson (2005), a WR with the Vikings and Jaguars with a penchant for dropping passes, and Michael Huff (2006), who has never played to expectations with the Raiders, and was benched as a starter last year.

In summary, over the last 10 years, there was a 20 percent chance of landing an under achiever (bust) with the seventh pick, and a 20 percent chance of landing a perennial all pro caliber player.

What kind of performer will the Raiders get in the upcoming draft? We won’t know until long after the dice are thrown.