UFC 98: Rashad Evans-Lyoto Machida Preview

On May 23, the UFC light heavyweight title is on the line as champion Rashad "Sugar" Evans makes his first defense against Lyoto “Dragon" Machida. This is a fight I personally have been curious to see for a few reasons.

First off, I consider Machida to be one of the most technically gifted fighters in the sport and long deserving of a title shot.

Secondly, Evans and Machida are two of the most mobile and accurate strikers in the light heavyweight division and the UFC in general.

Their style matchups also could be one of the most boring or incredible fights that take place this year.

Both are very light on their feet and many critics have called Machida a “boring” fighter. However, the fact is he imposes his will and makes opponents fight his fight. At 14-0, this clearly works well for him.

Evans’ style obviously works well for him—he’s 18-0-1. Equally as mobile as Machida, he has fought tougher opposition in his rise to the title, but has never faced someone with a style that mimics his own.

Both are counter punchers that frustrate their opponents with superb footwork and well-timed odd angle strikes.

So how will this fight go?

When I pose this question to fellow fans, no one seems to be able to break down the way this one will go so I will give it my best.


Worst-case Scenario

The two will cover more ground in the octagon than Kalib Starns when he ran from Nate Quarry for three rounds.

Their styles have potential for this disaster to happen with neither engaging the other in an exciting fashion, utilizing hit and run tactics but never decisively winning any round. It will lead fans through a five-round snooze fest to a controversial decision.


Best-case Scenario No. 1

Evans is the faster of the two, so if he manages to get him to trade and forces a bit more of a brawl, this could put Machida out of his element. This is something no one has done.
While Evans normally doesn't fight in such fashion, he has before, and from what I've seen of both fighters, this seems to favor him. After that, he can work for the clinch on the fence, smother Machida, and rough him up.


Best-case scenario No. 2

Machida manages to time Evans’ movements and outstrike him using some of those fast hit-and-run combos he uses so well.

He will frustrate Evans by getting outside just before he gets touched. Machida could possibly take it to the ground once he establishes a consistent standup attack. Then, Machida could surprise Evans with a takedown to work his BJJ skills.

Neither is really noted as a submission fighter but I'd give this edge to Machida as I've seen him use subs in the past.


As much as I hate MMA math, the two share a common opponent in Tito Ortiz. Evans got a draw and Machida won a solid decision.

If those fights are any indication then I think Machida’s ability to find and exploit weaknesses in his opponents is better than Evans’.

After all is said and done, I believe Machida will win by unanimous decision or submission midway through the fight.

If Machida wins, I think he will hold the gold like his teammate Anderson Silva—basically as long as he wants.