Top Ten Fantasy QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs for 2009

Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees

All he did was pass for 5069 yards and 34 TDs last year despite having his top wideout, Marques Colston, miss five games.

In his three years, with New Orleans Drew is averaging 4,637 yards and 29 TDs. To put it into perspective, Peyton Manning has never thrown for 4,600 yards in a season.

2. Peyton Manning

Old reliable. He has never thrown less that 26 TD passes in a season. Only twice has his passing yardage dipped below the 4,000-yard mark. You can pretty much pencil him in for 4,200-yards and 28 TDs.

Others may finish ahead of him, but the come at a higher risk. For example, in 2006 the top five QBs were Manning, Brees, Bulger, Palmer, and Kitna. In 2007 it was Brady, Romo, Manning, Big Ben, and Brees. Last year it was Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Culter, and Warner (Manning was sixth). The two constants are Brees and Manning, who happen to be my top two fantasy QBs for 2009.

3. Tom Brady

I know he’s coming off a major injury, but he’s had far more time than Carson Palmer had to rehab when he tore his knee. Brady had 4,806 yards and 50 TDs in 2007. Fifty TDs. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still there. Plus, don’t you get the feeling Bill Belichick wants Brady to put up huge numbers to discredit Josh McDaniels’ influence? Matt Cassel was seventh in QB scoring last year, and with all due respect to Mr. Cassel, he is no Tom Brady.

4. Kurt Warner

QB is the one position where players can maintain their excellence well into their thirties. As long as Anquan Boldin is with the Cardinals, Warner remains one of the top QBs. Even if he holds out or forces a trade, Warner has great weapons in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Jerheme Urban.

5. Aaron Rodgers

Rogers impressed me last year. He was the second-highest scoring QB despite having to deal with the Brett Favre circus and expectations. With a year under his belt and a training camp in which he can just focus on football, I expect Rodgers to be the top young QB next year. He has plenty of weapons and his ability to add points with his feet are a huge help.

6. Philip Rivers

I would rank Rivers higher, but I think he’ll have a couple of factors working against him next year. First and foremost, I believe the Chargers Defense will be better in 2009. They won’t be in as many shootouts next year.

Second, as their D improves, their reliance on the ground game will increase. LaDainian Tomlinson should be healthy and Darren Sproles will get more carries. Rivers’ yardage will remain around 4,000, but his TD number (34) will take a hit.

7. Tony Romo

Romo will miss Terrell Owens on the field. It’s hard to replace a double-digit TD guy. Roy Williams is solid, but he’s not T.O. Defenses will be able to key in on Jason Witten more, meaning is go-to guy could have more difficulty getting open. Plus, with a trio of backs in Marion Barber III, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice, the Cowboys could get back to more smash-mouth football.

8. Jay Cutler

In a perfect world, Jay Cutler would probably be the third guy on my list. Unfortunately there are several strikes against him. Namely, the ongoing drama with his new coach and the potential four-game suspension of his top target Brandon Marshall. He has the ability to climb this list, but as of now I’m a little leery of his situation.

9. Carson Palmer

A healthy Palmer should easily be able to crack the Top 10. Laveranues Coles is no T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but he’s a solid wideout. As long as Chad Ocho Cinco doesn’t force his way out of Cincinnati, Palmer should be able to throw for 4,000 and 25 TDs.

10. Donovan McNabb

Even if his team won’t give him the tools he needs to do his job, McNabb will find a way to make it work. He always does. Kevin Curtis should be healthy and DeSean Jackson has a year of experience.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson

"All Day" led the league in rushing and scored double-digit TDs again. Sure, the loss of Matt Birk will hurt, but Peterson shouldn’t miss a beat. He’s looking to add some muscle mass this offseason without losing any speed. A bigger AP with the same speed and quickness. Scary.

2. Michael Turner

"Burner" Turner did not disappoint in his first shot as the feature back. He struggled early against good defenses, but scored in seven of his last eight games. As Matt Ryan progresses at QB, it will become more difficult to key in on Turner.

3. Matt Forte

I love Forte’s versatility. As a rookie, he had the third-most receiving yards for a running back. Second-most, if you discount Kevin Faulk, who isn’t a feature back. He had 1,715 total yards and 12 combined TDs. Even if he has a 10 percent sophomore slump in production, he’d still be good for over 1,500 total yards and 10-11 TDs.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

With Fred Taylor heading to New England, MJD should be huge in 2009. He’s always good for 400 receiving yards and double-digit TDs. Give him 300-320 carries and you could be looking at nearly 2,000 total yards and 15 TDs.

5. Ronnie Brown

Last year Ronnie had 214 carries to Ricky Williams’ 160. I think the split will be even more in Ronnie’s favor next year. With Ronnie another year removed from his knee injury, he should be closer to the 2007 back that had 991 total yards and five combined TDs in seven games.

6. LaDainian Tomlinson

LT battled through a variety of ailments last year and still managed to produce 1,536 total yards and 12 combined TDs. Not only do I think he’ll be healthy in ‘09, I think he will be motivated. I don’t see pre-2008 LT, but a better version that last year’s model.

7. Clinton Portis

CP was severely overworked last year, but he still remains on the right side of 30. I see him producing similar numbers next year, only spaced out a whole lot better. Jim Zorn will do a better job managing Portis’ carries so he doesn’t wear down at the end of the year.

8. Brandon Jacobs

You would think Derrick Ward’s departure to Tampa Bay would have a significant impact on Jacobs’ value. I don’t think so. Ahmad Bradshaw will likely pick up most of the slack. As long as Jacobs can stay healthy, there isn’t any reason he couldn’t run for 1,200 yards and score 18 TDs.

9. DeAngelo Williams

You must think I’m crazy putting D-Will this low after leading all RBs in scoring last year. I’m sorry, but I don’t see another 1,700 total yards from him. Furthermore, there is little to no chance he approaches 20 TDs again. Jonathan Stewart played a major role last year, and I think the split will be a little closer to 50/50 this year.

10. Steven Jackson

Steven Jackson’s strong finish (637 total yards and four combined TDs in his last five games) is sticking in my mind more than the most forgettable 19 games he had in 2007 and the first part of 2008. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to leapfrog several of the guys above him.

I haven’t completely forgotten, though, which is why he’s in the ten spot.

Wide Receivers

1. Larry Fitzgerald

It was actually close for me between Fitz and Andre Johnson, but after his playoff run, no way I can not chose No. 11. He reached 1400 yards and double-digit TDs for the third time in his last four seasons.

Kurt Warner is back. I knew about the leaping ability, his body control, great route running, and hands, but I did not know he had that extra gear that he kicked in during his long Super Bowl TD. That HAD to scare Defensive Coordinators to death.

2. Andre Johnson

I let the cat out of the bag already with Johnson, but a quick glance at his numbers (115 receptions, 1575 yards, eight TDs) and you can see why he was 1-A prior to the playoffs. His QB, Matt Schaub, has a tendency to get hurt. Having his backup, Sage Rosenfels, leave for Minnesota hurts his value a little.

Not enough to knock him out of the second slot, but it’s a question mark that wasn’t there last year.

3. Calvin Johnson

Megatron is right on par with the top two. He just happens to play for the lowly Lions. He still managed 1331 yards and 12 TDs. He’s just getting his feet wet in the league, and the Lions should be a little more stable at QB next year with Culpepper participating in OTAs and training camp. Plus, they very well could be selecting a stud QB or offensive lineman in the draft.

4. Reggie Wayne

Wayne had a down year for the Colts (1145 yards, six TDs), but with Marvin Harrison not returning, I see no reason why Wayne doesn’t bounce back with a 1400 yard, 10 TD season. If the Colts didn’t have so many other weapons, I’d put him in the top three.

5. Steve Smith

Smith had 1421 yards despite missing two games for breaking teammate Ray Lucas’ nose in the preseason, having a less than stellar QB, and playing on a run first team. That speaks volumes about Smith’s ability. I don’t think he’ll break anyone’s nose this year so he should play a full season, but the other two scenarios won’t change. Still, he’s too good to move any further.

6. Randy Moss

With Tom Brady back under center, Randy Moss moves up a few notches from where he finished in 2008. Will he snag another 23 TD passes? Hardly. How about close to 1,500 yards? Not likely. However, a 1,300-yard, 12-TD season should be easily attainable.

7. Greg Jennings

Jennings meshed well with first time QB Aaron Rodgers proving he wasn’t a mirage created by Brett Favre’s gunslinging ways. Jenning actually proved to be more of a possession receiver recording 55 first downs (compared to 37 in 2008 ). He also improved by 27 receptions and 372 yards. His TD total decreased from 12 to nine, but his yards per catch didn’t change dramatically (17.4 to 16.2).

Rodgers won’t have to deal with the Favremania this offseason and won’t have quite as much pressure on him to escape No. 4’s shadow. They can just focus on playing football—something both Jennings and Rodgers do well.

8. Anquan Boldin

Boldin would be higher if he could stay healthy (16 missed games in six seasons) and if his contract status weren’t in question. Playing opposite of Larry Fitzgerald helps. Having Kurt Warner at QB also helps. Even if he forced his way out of Arizona, he would still produce in a new system. He’s that good.

9. Roddy White

White was great last year catching 88 passes for 1,382 yards and seven TDs with Rookie QB Matt Ryan proving his 2007 numbers (83, 1202, six) weren’t a fluke. As Ryan grows as a QB so will Roddy. Michael Jenkins took a step forward last year to give him a compliment at wideout. Plus, defenses have Michael Turner to worry about.

10. Terrell Owens

I’m sure you’re well aware that T.O. landed in Buffalo. While it’s not an ideal situation, T.O. should be motivated to prove Dallas wrong. He has double-digit TDs in seven of his last nine seasons. Lee Evans is the best wide receiver mate that T.O. has seen in quite some time. His deep-ball threat will keep safeties honest.

T.O. could be in for a very big year. I have him at ten because being T.O., his mouth could get him into trouble at any time.

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates

Gates dealt with nagging injuries last year, but still managed 704 yards and eight TDs. Those numbers, which are solid by any tight end’s standards were the lowest for Gates since his rookie season back in 2003. As long as he’s healthy I see know reason Gates won’t be the No. 1 fantasy tight end in 2009.

2. Tony Gonzalez

Gonzo reclaimed the top tight end spot last year, and despited turning 33 recently, he should be able to stay in the top two. He has a new offensive-minded coach in Todd Haley and a new QB in Matt Cassel, both of which should be upgrades from years past. You can pretty much pencil him in for 1,000 yards and seven TDs.

3. Jason Witten

T.O.’s departure could actually hurt Witten a bit. No, not emotionally, but T.O. did draw the opposing Defenses’ attention. With T.O. gone, defenses will be able to key in on Witten more. He’s still going to produce, but I think his numbers will look more like last year than 2007.

4. Dallas Clark

Clark is also losing a WR from the 1996 NFL Draft as a teammate, as Marvin Harrison won’t be back. For Clark I think that works in his favor. The Colts have a variety of weapons to keep defenses honest, but Peyton Manning will have one less mouth to feed.

5. Chris Cooley

Cooley had a great year for the Redskins with 83 catches for 849 yards. He only managed to score once though. He had averaged around seven TDs in his first four years. They’ will come back in 2009, along with his ranking.

6. Owen Daniels

Owen finished as the sixth-highest-scoring tight end, despite having just two TDs. He hasn’t exactly shown the ability to reach paydirt consistently yet, but I could see him improve in that area in 2009. If he can score five or six TDs and maintain the 800 yard average he has the past two years, he could possibly crack the top five.

7. John Carlson

John had a very impressive rookie season catching 55 passes for 627 yards and five TDs. With a healthy Matt Hasselbeck and T.J. Houshmandzadeh on board, Carlson should be able to avoid a Sophomore slump.

8. Zach Miller

Zach nearly doubled his yardage last year going from 444 as a rookie to 778 in his second year. He only scored one TD last year, which was down from three in his rookie season. As he and JaMarcus Russell continue to build their rapport, I see that TD number going up next year. 800 yards and four or five TDs isn’t out of the question.

9. Greg Olsen

Greg was one of the Bears’ top targets in the passing game. He should be utilized even more next year as he continues to develop into one of the game’s best pass-catching Tight Ends. I see him leading the Bears in receptions next year. He should rack up at least 700 yards and four scores.

10. Dustin Keller

With Kellen Clemens likely taking over the starting Quarterback job, Dustin Keller is going to be a big security blanket. He caught 48 passes for 535 yards and three TDs as a rookie. He had 388 yards in the second half last year. He should build upon that success in his second year.