A Look at The Six Nations Decider

It all comes down to this match.  For both nations, a Six Nations title, a Triple Crown, the position as the highest-ranked nation in the Northern Hemisphere—and a likely reward as the dominant feeder for the British and Irish Lions.

For Ireland, a Grand Slam awaits.  This would be just the second time in their history this was achieved, and the first in 61 years. 

It is hard to pick a favourite, with both teams having mixed fortunes in their march to this the championship decider.

Wales, the defending champions, have been disappointing by their own high standards. 

As the championship has progressed, they have struggled. 

Oh how a tournament can change a team! 

In just over a month, Warren Gatland has had attributes revealed that even the most fervent Welsh supporter would not have foreseen.

They have shown lack of consistent intensity, the aggression needed at the contact— so crucial to winning a game of rugby.  They found it difficult to combat a hard-nosed England team, were unable to adjust to the ferocity of the French, and were ultimately fortuitous to put down a gritty Azzuri.

As Gatland has said, they have shown tactical flaws.

But, two factors occurred that showed Wales up, revealed that they are still far from the world-beating team they had looked to be evolving toward.  Their game plan has been found wanting, unable to fine tune and shift their play to counter their opposition.  But the Welsh player depth, thought to be obviously apparent, was found wanting.

Of course, this is harsh criticism for a team that still has their own destiny in their hands, and has the ability to win back-to-back Six Nations titles for first time in 30 years.  But one thought that with where Wales were at as a rugby team at the end of last year, that the title may have been a formality.

While they have not been proficiently poor, as England had been, there seems to have been a bit of hunger missing.  There has been a lack of wanting to do the basics well and enforcing themselves on the opposition.

This is in stark contrast to Ireland.

Naturally, it is easy to compare this Irish team with their greatest rugby province, Munster.

Declan Kidney didn’t have to reinvent the wheel with this national team.  He, and their supporters, knew that had the cattle.  There was a tenacity missing, a mental strength— ironically the one aspect that Wales seem to have recently lost. 

But this is not the case anymore.

Ireland has become a team, which is uncanny in their similarity to Gatland’s Grand Slammers of 2008, or for that case, any great European rugby nation in recent years.

Uncompromising in the pack, with an enthusiasm for the hard yards, a team willing to follow the most pure of rugby maxims: To attack the ball and the man with more intensity than your opposition.

Despite the magic that lies within their team— epitomised by Brian O’Driscoll—there will be no fancy risks or unmeasured play from Ireland. 

This is a fine looking Irish side that appears to be on the verge of not only erasing the demons of a horror period tracing back to early 2007, but also of correcting a track record that has seen them finish with plenty of silvers. 

So close is Ireland now, having recorded solid wins against Scotland and Italy, but also having conquered France and England—the two nations that have stood between Ireland and a Grand Slam five times since 2001.

Enough work in fact has been done, that even a loss of up to 12 points against Wales will still be enough to reward Ireland with their first Six Nations title since 1985.

Kidney has made three changes, bringing in forwards Jamie Heaslip and Jerry Flannery, and replacing last week’s man of the match Peter Stringer with Tomas O’Leary.

An all Munster tight five and halfback combination is joined by four Leinster backs in the three quarter line. It is a team full of combinations, and wielding close to 700 test caps.

As in keeping with successful teams, 11 of Irelands starting 15 have started every match in this year’s tournament. 

This in stark contrast to Gatland’s raft of changes against Italy last week, which he now admits, was a poor decision from him and his coaching team.  He has made eight changes to his starting team, restoring seven of the players who lost against France, and retaining Gavin Henson in the midfield.

Jamie Roberts will play off the bench after starting every game so far this year.

To win back-to-back titles, Wales will need to defeat by 13 points, something they have not achieved since defeating the Irish 23-9 in 1983.  If Wales do win, they will join England on 25 outright wins for the championship.

HEAD TO HEAD: Wales 62, Ireland 45, 5 draws

Last match: 8^thMarch 2008, Wales 16 – Ireland 12 @ Croke Park

Ireland: 15 Robert Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.

Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Tom Court, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Geordan Murphy.

Wales: L Byrne (Ospreys); M Jones (Scarlets), T Shanklin (Cardiff Blues), G Henson (Ospreys), S Williams (Ospreys); S Jones (Scarlets), M Phillips (Ospreys); G Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), M Rees (Scarlets), A Jones (Ospreys), I Gough (Ospreys), A-W Jones (Ospreys), R Jones (Ospreys, capt), M Williams (Cardiff Blues), A Powell (Cardiff Blues).

Replacements:H Bennett (Ospreys), J Yapp (Cardiff Blues) L Charteris (Newport Gwent Dragons), D Jones (Scarlets), W Fury (London Irish), J Hook (Ospreys), J Roberts (Cardiff Blues)