Denver Broncos: Projecting the Playoff Seed Odds

The Denver Broncos are more than halfway through the season, have played through the toughest part of their schedule and are sitting atop the AFC West with a 6-3 record. 

Vintage Peyton Manning has proved to be back and here to stay, Von Miller is making huge stops and putting his name out there for the Defensive Player of the Year and there have been few major injuries to hold back the Broncos so far. 

With a relatively light remainder of the schedule (with the exception of Baltimore), could the Broncos go into the playoffs with a home-field advantage? Will they be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed? Do they have what it takes to make it to the Super Bowl in Manning's first year in blue and orange?

Here's my opinion on the odds of the Broncos getting each seed.

No. 1 Seed: 10 Percent

The Broncos are playing their best football right now, but so are the Houston Texans, who currently sit at the top of the AFC. 

With only seven games left in the Broncos' season, it doesn't leave much time for them to take away the Texans' top spot. For that to happen, the Broncos would have to outplay the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens first. On top of that, Houston would have to either suffer crippling injuries or begin to play terrible football. 

Although the Texans have been injury prone in the past, they are healthy this far and making waves in the NFL as one of the best teams in the league.

The Broncos lost to the Texans in Week 3, but have since improved their play under Peyton Manning. There is little chance the Broncos could take the Texans' top spot, but there is a chance they will meet again in the playoffs. I firmly believe the Broncos could beat them in the rematch. 

No. 2 Seed: 80 Percent

Although the Broncos currently hold the fourth seed in the AFC, they have the same record as the Patriots and could jump over them if they play strong to finish the regular season. 

There is also only a one-game differential between the No. 2 seed Baltimore Ravens and the Broncos. With both teams playing excellent football, the Week 15 meeting with the Ravens could easily be a deciding game for who gets the No. 2 playoff seed. 

Going into the game with the Ravens, I predict the Broncos will be 10-3 and the No. 3 seed. If the Broncos can beat the Ravens in Baltimore, they should secure the No. 2 seed and be a big threat going into the playoffs. 

The No. 2 seed is much more of a reality than the No. 1 seed for the Denver Broncos. 

No. 3 Seed: 50 Percent

With the Broncos and the current No. 3 seed New England Patriots sharing the same 6-3 record, anything can happen in the next few weeks. Both teams have a fairly easy remaining schedule, with only one difficult game left. 

The Patriots' only remaining difficult game comes in Week 14 when they host the Houston Texans. Although the Texans will be hard to beat, the Patriots will have the home-field advantage.

If they lose to the Texans, the Patriots and Broncos could flip, moving the Broncos to the No. 3 seed and the Patriots sliding to the No. 4 seed. 

No. 4 Seed: 30 Percent

The Broncos are currently the No. 4 seed, and with seven games left in the regular season, I don't see them staying in this spot. I see the Broncos improving to the No. 3 or No. 2 seed, which is why my percentage is so low. 

In the past few weeks, more and more players are stepping up and playing their best games. Von Miller had the best game of his career against Carolina, finishing the game with four tackles and his 10th sack of the season. 

If the Broncos continue to play at this level, there is no reason for them to still be the No. 4 seed at the end of the regular season. 

No. 5 Seed or Lower: Five Percent

Unless the Broncos suffer multiple injuries, they will not slip into the No. 5 seed or lower. 

The only major thing that would cause the Broncos to take a step back at this point would be to lose Peyton Manning to a season-ending injury. While losing him may not keep the Broncos out of the playoffs, I think it will lead to lower morale amongst players, causing the Broncos to slip a few spots.

The Broncos would also have to rely on either Caleb Hanie or rookie QB, Brock Osweiler, neither of which have much experience running the Broncos offense. 

As long as the key Broncos players stay healthy (Manning, Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Ryan Clady), the Broncos have zero chance of slipping past where they currently sit at the No. 4 seed.