Bowl Projections 2012: Breaking Down Likely BCS Showdowns

BCS bowl berths aren’t guaranteed until the fat computer sings.

But the closer the 2012 regular season comes to a conclusion, the easier projections are becoming to make. And here they are—the most likely BCS matchups.

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

Kansas State is currently No. 2 in the BCS rankings, but, assuming Oregon wins out, the Ducks would have three more wins against ranked opponents—Stanford, Oregon State and USC or UCLA in the Pac-12 title. The Wildcats only have No. 17 Texas to boost their resume, which likely won’t be enough.

And Notre Dame doesn’t even have a single ranked opponent remaining.

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma

With Georgia or Florida likely to lose against Alabama in the SEC title, LSU’s odds to receive the conference’s at-large bid are solid. In fact, a Bulldog loss to the Crimson Tide and a Gator letdown at the Seminoles’ house would make just that reality.

And because only two teams from the same conference can receive BCS bowl bids, Oklahoma projects to be the highest-ranked team remaining.

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville

All signs point to Florida State coming out on top of the ACC and Louisville in the Big East. Neither has much competition given that the Seminoles already beat their biggest threat in Clemson and the Cardinals’ greatest obstacle is Rutgers—the same Rutgers that lost to Kent State.

Rose Bowl: Oregon State vs. Nebraska

Nebraska is only ranked No. 16, but thanks to Ohio State’s sanctions, the Big Ten is its to lose.

And at No. 11, unless the Beavers suffer a major collapse—lose to Stanford and get dominated by the Ducks—they should be able to hold off USC and UCLA for the conference’s at-large bid.

BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon

LSU was Alabama’s toughest remaining opponent. It survived. A loss to anyone else, even Georgia or Florida, would be quite shocking.

And like previously mentioned, Oregon should control its own destiny.

David Daniels is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report and a syndicated writer.

Follow @TheRealDDaniels