Draft Preparation: Starting Pitching (Rounds 1-10)

Round 2

Johan Santana will go in the first rounds of many drafts, but this little injury problem that he is having in Spring Training is causing him to fall into the second round a lot of times.

But so far, Santana has shown no reason to think that he won’t be ready to go Opening Day, and, as of now, should be drafted accordingly. If the bullpen wasn’t a disaster last year, the guy would have won 20 games. Still the best starting pitcher available, even if the gap has closed some.

Round 3

Tim Lincecum took the fantasy world by storm last year in just his second season on his way to the NL Cy Young award. Tiny Tim led the NL in strikeouts and posted a ridiculous 2.62 ERA. Perhaps his most impressive feat, however, was winning 18 games for a Giants team that won just 72 games. He’s started out as hot this spring as he ended last season, so get your hands on him now!

C.C. Sabathia had one of the more impressive final couple months of a season ever in 2008. He was taking the ball on three days rest regularly, as he single-handedly carried the Brew Crew to the playoffs.

After an awful start for the Indians, Sabathia finished the year 17-10 with a 2.70 ERA. He threw 10 complete games with five shutouts. You have to be a little worried that he has thrown nearly 500 innings in two seasons, and I’m not sure he is the third best pitcher.

Round 4

I just want to start by saying I have a developed a man crush on Cole Hamels. What’s not to like about this kid?  He plays on a great team, he goes deep into games, his ERA keeps falling, and his strikeouts keep rising!  Put all of that together with this confident new attitude from being the World Series and NLCS MVP, and you’ve got a hell of a pitcher.

Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers, but there are a couple concerns. One, he has had a few nagging injuries that caused him to miss a few starts last year.  And second, assuming he isn’t traded, the Padres have done what they could to make sure that the team will struggle to compete on a nightly basis.  In two of the last three years, he has won 11 games or less. In that middle year?  19. Peavy is still among the elite.

If  Brandon Webb struck out more batters, he would be right up there with the first few starters selected. He has won 40 games in the last two seasons, his ERA is in the low 3.00s, and his WHIP is always among the best.  He is also incredibly durable as he has made 33+ starts in five straight seasons. A great option to lead your staff.

Roy Halladay went through a couple of injury-plagued seasons, but now has three straight healthy years.  Halladay always wins a good number of games, his ERA is usually among the top 10 in the league, and his WHIP is always sparkling, as he walks among the fewest in baseball. 

Last year was only the second time he recorded 200 strikeouts, so I wouldn’t look for that to happen again.  But still a great choice for your No. 1 starter.

Round 5

Since his trade to Oakland, Dan Haren has improved each year and has now become someone you can count on for your fantasy ace. Haren has been the picture of consistency, something you crave from a fantasy pitcher.  He has won between 14-16 games over the last four seasons and has started 33 or 34 games over that span as well. 

Haren’s ERA has been floating around the low three range over the past two seasons, and his strikeouts have gone up for four straight years. He might not be the sexiest pick, but Haren is a good guy to lead your staff if you miss out on the aces.

Round 6

If Cliff Lee is able to repeat his 2008 performance, obviously you have yourself a heck of a pick.  However, if he does what is reasonable to expect again, this might be a couple of rounds too soon. I would expect about 15 wins, his ERA to hover in the 3.25-3.50 range, and about 165 strikeouts. A good season, but not the Cy Young performance from last year.

The only question surrounding Francisco Liriano is whether he is all the way back from the Tommy John surgery. If he is able to come back and and be the kind of pitcher he was in his rookie season, he is an incredible option to be your staff ace.  He finished the season strong, so there is good reason to have hope that he will return to his old form.

Josh Beckett seems to be great every other year.  Good news for us here in 2009, Beckett wasn’t great last year.  He won only 12 games, his lowest since 2004, and his ERA was over 4.00. Whether Beckett is good or bad, he will always get you strikeouts. He is a good value in the sixth round for his ace potential.

Round 7

Roy Oswalt has been a great pitcher throughout his career, and should be again in 2009.  He’s pitched over 200 innings in five straight seasons, and his ERA has only been over 3.50 ONCE and it was last year, when it was 3.54. He is ranked below the elite because he usually taps out at about 150-160 strikeouts.

Ervin Santana had a spectacular year in 2008, but is dealing with elbow problems in spring training which is a huge red flag. He could start the year on the DL, but it seems that he shouldn’t miss more than the first month. I think 2008 was something he won’t repeat, and I think he should be drafted at least five rounds later.

James Shields is one of the more consistent, under rated pitchers in all of fantasy, and now that the Rays are a quality team his value increases.  He pitched the exact same number of innings the last two seasons, but his ERA and strikeouts both went down.  One is good, the other not so much. But look at Shields recent stats, and you should expect the same in 2009.

Round 8

Chad Billingsley became more of a household name among fantasy players in 2008, and he should be known among all players by the end of 2009.  He might not win more than 15 games, but he is a strikeout artist, and his ERA should be in the low 3.00s. He is a future star in the making. The eighth round is good value for a guy that is expected to make the jump to fantasy ace this year.

Scott Kazmir has all the talent in the world but has been betrayed by walks and high pitch counts. Because of his size, there have been injury concerns surrounding him his whole career, but he has been more healthy than most people figured.

He is a strike out machine, as he has the ability to lead the league in that category. His ERA has been consistently in the 3.20-3.50 range the last three years, and you can expect more of the same in 2009.

Felix Hernandez was crowned the King before he even entered the majors, and fantasy owners are still waiting for him to claim his throne. His ERA has steadily declined, but his strikeout numbers haven’t been where we all envisioned. His win totals have also been low, but that can be attributed to the horrible team he is on.

As much as I like King Felix and would draft him around this spot, it appears to be a little too soon based on the production he has been giving you. Everyone wants him to be on their roster the year he puts it all together though so he continues to go high.

John Lackey seems to be dropping because of his injury last season, but I don’t think that should be a factor. He pitched 200+ innings in five straight seasons before 2008, and has had a better than .500 record in all of them. He isn’t quite a strikeout an inning guy, but pretty close.  You can count on 14 wins, 185 Ks, and a 3.50 ERA.

Round 9

A.J. Burnett is one of the bigger injury risks among pitchers, and this is too soon in my opinion. Burnett has only pitched three full seasons in his ten year career, and his only two quality seasons were when he was up for a contract. Many players struggle when they go to New York, whether it is the Mets or Yanks. There is no doubt about his strikeout ability though, and if he can stay healthy, he could whiff 200 batters.

Jon Lester had his huge breakout season in 2008, although I think that might be his ceiling. He will win his share of games on the Sox, but you would like to see his strikeout rate get better.  He could win 15 games again, but don’t stretch too far for Lester. There are some better options still available.

Outside of WHIP, Daisuke Matsuzaka is a great fantasy pitcher.  He gives up far too many hits and walks, but it seems that he doesn’t give up many runs. On the Red Sox, he is almost a guarantee to win at least 15 games, and he is a good value at this point of the draft. Expect 17 wins, a 3.35 ERA, and 175 strikeouts.

Edinson Volquez was one of the great pitching stories in fantasy in the first half. He was blowing away hitters at an incredible rate, and was even winning a good number of games for the lowly Reds. He finished the season struggling, but it was the most innings he had ever thrown, so he could have run out of gas. 

Volquez was always a highly rated pitching prospect in the minors, so there is reason to believe he can repeat last year’s performance.

Round 10

Yovani Gallardo could be the steal of your draft if you are able to draft him here.  Gallardo is the Brewers best pitching prospect since Ben Sheets, and this is the year he proves it. An ACL tear cost him most of last year, but the guy has ace stuff.  He is a power pitcher who strikes out nearly a batter an inning, and proved at the end of 2008 that he was over his knee injury. I would even reach a round or two earlier for him if I had to.

Carlos Zambrano’s ERA has started to rise to close to 4.00, while his strikeouts and velocity have been declining quickly. Zambrano was once a top-10 pitcher, but has fallen greatly in my opinion and shouldn’t be drafted here. He gets a bump if your league gives hitting stats for your pitcher, but I have yet to see that league.

If Rich Harden was a healthy man, he would probably be a late first round or early second round pick. Unfortunately for him and his wallet, he is never able to stay healthy.  Harden perhaps has the best stuff in the entire major leagues and is dominant when he is on the mound.  He keeps a low ERA, strikes out everyone, and on the Cubs, should win a decent number of games……if he is able to stay on the mound.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” every Wednesday night at 10pm EST on Blog Talk Radio. The show is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com.  To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru.