March Sanity: History Can Cure Madness in Your Bracket

It is mid-March, a time when prayers are answered and dreams are crushed in American gyms. Fiery speeches and boisterous crowds mark this time of year. It is March Madness.

This weekend, conference tournaments wrap up across the nation. Some teams will earn an invitation to the most important dance they will ever attend, while others will watch their bubbles burst in frustrating manners.

However these conference tournaments end, 65 teams will have a chance at a national title after this weekend. Next week, these teams will garner more attention in offices across the nation than the ever-sinking Dow Jones.

Whether you fill out your bracket for an office pool, a Web site’s fantasy game or just among your friends, everyone has a strategy.

You’ve heard the stories about the administrative assistant who wins the office pool by picking LSU over Louisville because a tiger could beat up a cardinal, or picking Michigan State to win it all because their niece or nephew attends classes there.

This strategy won’t work. In fact, it’s not even a strategy; it is dumb luck. Sure, Western Kentucky’s mascot is cute, but that’s no reason to pick them to make the Elite Eight this year.

And while the head of marketing in your office has studied every college basketball game this season and has better reasoning behind his/her picks, he/she probably won’t pick it either. Invariably, this bracketologist will pick the higher seeds and the power conferences because of size and depth.

They forget why this is called March Madness.

So what is the best strategy for picking the winners of all 64 games this year? It takes a little skill and a little luck.

First, know the trends. History has a tendency to repeat itself in the NCAA tournament. If you follow the historical probabilities, you can find Cinderella in a field of evil stepsisters.

• Don’t pick a No. 16 seed. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, no 16th-seeded team has ever beaten a No. 1 seed.

• If you are feeling gutsy enough to pick a No. 15 seed in the first round, get them out early. No. 15 seeds aren’t typically the Cinderellas. Only four 15th-seeded teams have ever won a game in the tournament, the last being Hampton in 2001. None of those teams won in the weekend sessions.

• A No. 14 seed may be due this year. The last No. 14 to win a game was Northwestern State in 2006. There was a five-year gap between victorious No. 14 seeds between 1999 (Weber State) and 2005 (Bucknell), but that was the longest drought in tournament history. Only in 1995 did two No. 14 seeds (Weber State and Old Dominion) win in the same year. If you do pick the lucky No. 14, remember that only four of those winners have won a second round game. None have gotten any further.

• No. 13 seeds are feisty, but they aren’t going very deep either. 20 No. 13’s have won a first round game. Last year was only the second time two No. 13’s (Siena and San Diego) won in the same year. Four of these seeds have won a second round game. You probably won’t find the Bracket Buster in this seed either.

• Some No. 12 seed will probably ruin someone’s weekend. These are the teams that people warn you about. No. 12 seeds win about a third of their games. The No. 12 seed is ripe for upset because this is generally where the NCAA relegates the “last four teams in” or very strong mid-major teams.

The statistics also show that if a No. 12 wins the first game, it will win in the second round about half the time—16 of the 31 victorious No. 12’s won in the second round. But be careful. The slipper doesn’t often fit by the next weekend. Only the 2002 Missouri Tigers ever advanced to the Sweet 16 from the No. 12 slot.

• Cinderella usually gets the most bang for her buck out of the 11th seed. You can insert your George Mason memories here. The lowest seed to ever reach the Final Four is a No. 11. It happened twice – most recently in 2006 with George Mason and in 1986 with LSU. Oddly enough, while the No. 11’s last longer, they have a worse record in the first two rounds than the No. 12’s. Thirty No. 11’s have won in round one, and 11 have continued success in the second round.

• No. 10 seeds are only a little more successful than No. 12’s. Only a handful more No. 10 seeds have won in the first round than No. 11 or 12 seeds.  Much like the No. 12 seeds, a No. 10 seed hasn’t made it past the Elite Eight.

While it is fun to find the upset-minded teams on your bracket, history says pick them early and then leave the championship to the big boys, but not always the biggest boys. Only twice have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four.

So that’s part of the skill—if you want to call it that—in picking your brackets. The other part is a general knowledge of the stronger teams.

The luck comes in deciding which eager lower-seeded team or teams will make a run this year. So good luck in picking the Cinderellas in the tournament this year—you’re going to need it.