NBA: News, Notes, and Observations 3/19/08

I'm back for another round of news, notes, and observations. I'm thinking this will become a weekly staple of mine. It's not that I've run out of things to write about, it's because Bleacher Report has some new and exciting things planned for the near future and I won't be the one who lets the cat out of the bag.

1) Expect the Western Conference playoff picture to start clearing up soon

While each team in the West has about 15 games left, the ratio of home/away games is as good of an indicator of where teams will finish as any. Keep your eye on home losses and road wins since they will be the most important factor coming down the stretch.

Here are the home/away splits for the West's top nine teams with the team's road record in parentheses:

Houston Rockets—5 home/10 away (20-11)

Los Angeles Lakers—10 home/5 away (23-13)

New Orleans Hornets—6 home/10 away (20-11)

Utah Jazz—9 home/4 away (16-21)

Phoenix Suns—6 home/9 away (20-12)

San Antonio Spurs—8 home/7 away (17-17)

Dallas Mavericks—7 home/7 away (15-19)

Golden St. Warriors—8 home/8 away (18-15)

Denver Nuggets—6 home/9 away (12-20)

2) The Mavs are 0-6 against teams with winning records since the Kidd trade

Since Kidd arrived in Dallas for his second go-round with the Mavs, the team's record is 9-6. The nine wins have come against Memphis, Minnesota, Chicago, Sacramento, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte, Indiana, and Miami. The six losses were against New Orleans, San Antonio, the Lakers (twice), Utah, and Houston (without Dirk Nowitzki).

I didn't like the trade at the time and I still don't like it. The Mavs didn't need a point guard. They needed an offensive-minded center.

What happens to this team if they get bounced in the first round of the playoffs again? It's a no-brainer that Avery Johnson gets fired. But who gets traded? I won't call Jason Terry untradeable but his contract is awful. Would the Mavs consider trading Josh Howard? They might not have a choice.

Ten of the Mavs' final 14 games are against teams with winning records, including road games with Denver, Golden St., the Lakers, and Phoenix. What happens to the team if they miss the playoffs?

3) The Celtics are a bona fide title contender

I know this one sounds like a no-brainer but I haven't been able to say that all year. Their fast start and amazing defense early on led me to believe that they couldn't keep it up for an entire season and they'd tire down the stretch.

I also refused to believe that any team could go from missing the playoffs to winning a title the following season.

That all changed because of what I saw from them in these past 48 hours. After losing at home to Utah on Friday, the Celts responded by overcoming a 23-point deficit to win in San Antonio and then beat the NBA's hottest team in Houston the next night by 20.

Why do I suddenly believe in them? Because their bench, perceived as a weakness all season long, is suddenly a strength. Sam Cassell scored 17 points against San Antonio on Monday, and Leon Powe came through with 21 points in 20 minutes against the Rockets. Did I mention that Ray Allen sat out both games?

If they can beat the Mavs in Dallas on Thursday, they'll become the first team to sweep the Texas Triangle since the Kings did it in 2001.

4) The sixth seed in the West is better than the fifth seed

In last week's NNO column, I wrote that the second seed in both conferences was better than the top-seed.

This week I'm here to tell you that, for similar reasons, the sixth seed in the West is better than the fifth seed.

The Jazz are pretty much the only team in the West that's locked into a seed. Since they're four games ahead of Denver in their division and behind the top three teams in the West by three games in the loss column it's pretty much a given that the Jazz will stay where they are.

That means the Jazz will host their first-round series against the fifth seed while the sixth seed will likely play the second place team from the Southwest division, since the division winner will more than likely get one of the top two seeds.

As of today, the fifth seed belongs to the Phoenix Suns while the third seed belongs to the New Orleans Hornets. Who would you rather play in the first round: Utah or New Orleans?

5) LeBron James will not win the MVP

Cleveland's recent skid in which they lost three of their last four games to Washington, Orlando, and New Jersey has all but assured the Cavs of winning fewer than 50 games this season.

With three games remaining against the Pistons, two games against suddenly-hot Philadelphia, and games against Orlando and New Orleans, it's unlikely the Cavs can win 12 of their last 14 to reach 50 wins.

There's no way that LeBron can win the award without his team winning 50 games in the Eastern Conference.

6) Luis Scola is the Rookie of the Year

Basketball finally has it's version of Hideo Nomo, Kaz Sasaki, and Ichiro. By stepping up during the Rockets' 22-game winning streak, Scola finally got the attention that Rockets fans were clamoring for all season. Meanwhile, it's seems like Kevin Durant is in the witness protection program.

Scola is averaging 9.4 points on 52 percent shooting to go with 5.8 rebounds in 10 fewer minutes than it's taken Durant to average 19.6 points on 41 percent shooting and 4.1 rebounds.

Scola can take partial credit for his team's 46-21 record while Durant's Sonics could have been 16-51 without him.

7) Judgment week is coming for the Phoenix Suns

The Suns are now 8-6 since Shaq joined the starting lineup. After a rough start the team has rebounded and won it's last five games, including one against the Spurs and another over the Warriors.

The bad news for the Suns is that the easy part of their schedule is done with. After tonight's game against the hapless Sonics, the Suns following six games are against the Rockets, @ Detroit, @ Boston, @ Philadelphia, @ New Jersey, against Denver, and @ Denver.

Shaq has played much better than expected, but we'll have a better idea if the Suns are a better team with him after that stretch of games. According to Elias, the Suns lost the rebounding battle in 41 of their first 53 games this season. Since Shaq's arrival they've out-rebounded their opponents in 12 of their first 14 games.

8) Larry Harris finally got the axe in Milwaukee. Who's next?

The Sixers and Bucks have already fired their GMs this year. There are five other teams that could be looking for new GMs this summer. I've listed them in order of likelihood.

1. New York Knicks
   
2. Indiana Pacers
   
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Denver Nuggets

9) What if ________ hadn't left school early?

What if Daniel Gibson, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kevin Durant hadn't left school early? The Longhorns would go into this week's tournament with a starting lineup consisting of those three guys plus D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams.

What if Jordan Farmar and Aron Afflalo hadn't left school early? The Bruins would have a starting five of Farmar, Darren Collison, Afflalo, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Kevin Love. Russell Westbrook, who NBADraft.net currently has going eighth in this year's draft, wouldn't even crack the starting five.

What if Al Horford, Joakim Noah, and Corey Brewer hadn't left school early? They'd probably become the first team since UCLA in 1973 to win three consecutive national championships.

10) The Clippers could be back in the playoffs next year

The Clips are all but assured of having no lower than the sixth pick in this year's draft. They've had amazing luck in the draft lottery in the past so I wouldn't be surprised if they picked even higher. That means they could easily end up with an O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, or Jerryd Bayless.

If Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston return from their respective injuries and Brand and Corey Maggette decide to stick around, the Clippers won't only have a high pick but will also have a little bit of cap room to add a player to their nucleus of Brand, Maggette, Livingston, Chris Kaman, and Al Thornton. 

I can't see Brand opting out of $16.4 million without any team getting the chance to see how he's recovered from his Achilles' tendon injury in a game. I think Maggette will opt out, but the Clippers will sign him to a new deal. If that happens then the Clips won't have much room to bring in a free agent. If they let him go then they'll have about $15 million to go after free agents with.

If the playoffs started today...

The Western Conference would look like this:

Rockets vs. Warriors

Lakers vs. Mavericks

Hornets vs. Spurs

Jazz vs. Suns

The Eastern Conference would look like this:

Celtics vs. Hawks

Pistons vs. Sixers

Magic vs. Wizards

Cavs vs. Raptors