Is New Zealand Rugby Heading For a Poor Season?

At the end of 2007, New Zealand suffered arguably the single greatest player exodus that any country had ever suffered.

The player list was considerable—Carl Hayman, Luke McAlister, Anton Oliver, Chris Jack, Aaron Mauger, Nick Evans, Byron Kelleher, and Doug Howlett—all front line All Blacks. 

They were joined by fringe players such as Rico Gear, Josh Blackie, Sam Tuitupou, and Clarke Dermody.  Then in 2008, players such as Jerry Collins and Chris Masoe took leave to add to the recent loss of players such as Tana Umaga and Keith Robinson.

So in theory, 2008 should have been a year of rebuilding for New Zealand.

But, against expectation, it was not. 

Indeed, it was a superb year for New Zealand rugby, taking the Super 14, Tri Nations, Bledisloe Cup, a touring Grand Slam, and the Sevens trophy.  13 Test match wins to close the year was beyond the expectation of even the most one eyed supporter.

But did it gloss over what was a glaring hole in New Zealand’s player depth?

So far this year, this indeed appears to be true, especially when one considers the numerous injuries suffered by front line players.

It is hardly panic stations, but one feels after a month of competition that New Zealand rugby could be in for a challenging year from their principal foes South Africa and Australia. 

This is to go with some level of resurgence from both France and Ireland—the former of whom they will host for a two test series on the 13th and 20th of June.

So far this year, New Zealand teams have suffered 13 losses (obviously including local derbies).  This is compared with just nine losses for South Africa, and six losses for Australian teams.

Defensively, the poor reading continues.  New Zealand teams have leaked 53 tries, compared with 42 for South Africa and just 36 for Australia.

When watching New Zealand teams play, one glaring fact appears to come to mind.  Lack of precision; for as a collective, no country is making more unforced or handling errors. 

Without quoting rugby clichés or maxims, rugby is a game of pressure, of building patterns and putting together the phases.  It appears that this is what is hurting the New Zealand teams, especially in comparison with the competition front runners. 

The Sharks, Bulls, and Waratahs are teams which portray composure and, while not perfect themselves, have aspects of their on-field play which appear to be game winning.

For the Bulls, it is their set piece.  For the Sharks it is their tactical kicking, and for the Waratahs it is their defensive systems. 

If anything, it is the lack of these match or championship winning components that appear to be missing from the New Zealand Franchises.  This would be a concern not only for the New Zealand Super 14 coaches, but also for All Black coach Graham Henry.

One of the historical strengths of New Zealand rugby has always been the ability to do the basics well.

But is it really all such a concern?

Statistically, New Zealand teams are leading the way in their attack, even if the execution is letting them down more often than not.

When looking at the statistics, we must first exclude the Queensland Reds, who lead the categories of Ball carries, offloads, passing, and running metres. 

This is very indicative of their attack at all costs attitude.

The Blues, Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Highlanders are in the top six of most attacking or running based statistics. 

No team has made as many clean breaks or beaten more defenders than the Chiefs or Hurricanes.  They both average close to 15 per match.

When it comes to broken play, no team is as dangerous as the New Zealand teams, but their more accomplished opponents are aware of this, and are shutting down the traditional loose style that most Kiwi teams thrive off.

Still, there is a significant silver lining to all of this, as a plethora of young New Zealand players are gaining top level exposure, which will hold the country in good stead in future years.

The Crusaders look to be in the worst position, and the Canterbury union will no doubt already be planning for 2010.

The Highlanders showed their fighting qualities against the Crusaders, with Adam Thompson looking every bit like a Test flanker.  They will beat more teams at the House of Pain.

As for the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Blues—they will all be threats, given more consistency and more luck with injuries.  Certainly full strength squads from these teams will be strong—but Colin Cooper, Ian Foster, and Pat Lam respectively would do well to run some back to basics drills over the coming weeks.

If these basics can complement the obvious X factor present in these teams, they should threaten the semifinals.

But in the next few rounds, the New Zealand teams will wish to make their statements to put themselves in championship winning positions.  Especially considering that four of the five teams still have to take their major overseas tours.

Upcoming matches

Blues vs. Cheetahs @ home, Chiefs away

Chiefs vs. Highlanders away, Blues @ home

Crusaders vs. Western Force @ home, Waratahs away

Highlanders vs. Chiefs @ home, Cheetahs @ home

Hurricanes vs. Bulls @ home, Lions away