The Super 15: What Will the Outcome Be?

The Super 14 is set for an expansion, but the decision of the what, why, and how will need to be quickly resolved by the three SANZAR unions.

Not only for the sake of the tournament and for the sake of the income from their lucrative News Limited, but for the sake of continued rugby expansion.

Even the sponsorship from Rupert Murdoch’s broadcasting company could be under question.  News Limited first bought the rights for the championship when it was signed in 1995, and they make a margin by selling the rights to Foxtel and Sky for broadcasting.

It is rumoured that the independent unions are keen to negotiate with their respective pay or free to air platforms in their own country—to effectively cut out the middleman, as New Zealand chief executive Steve Tew has suggested.

The New Zealand boss has been largely pragmatic and sensible with his views so far.  Irrespective of what happens in the end, one cannot forget the game itself.

Tew has said that in the coming months “good rugby is played. Whether we like it or not, we are in the entertainment market. That is our business.”

This is at odds with the way rugby has been played in recent years, following on from England’s deserved World Cup win in 2003.  Winning ugly has become a catch cry in recent years. 

One assumes the ELV’s were implemented to make the game more open and attractive to watch.  We can only guess as the international rugby board has not specifically highlighted the reason.  But despite the best intention, the game has been inconsistent with its overall viewing.

Crowd attendance was down across the board in New Zealand and Australia last year, and certain reports have shown that memberships were down this year. 

So while South Africa was been considered a somewhat “silent” partner in some quarters, the reality is that their market share is considerable, and their high crowd numbers and memberships in theory should give them a higher degree of clout.

Remember that South Africa has a population of close to 50 million, which is practically double that of Australia and New Zealand.  But despite this, it is a threeway relationship, and an agreement must be reached that is beneficial to all parties.

It appears the format will move into a conference style system.  If this is the case, it will severely hurt the chances of the “sixth” South African franchise, the Eastern Cape team.  Conferences will not function effectively with different numbers of teams in each country.

Despite South Africa’s bottom two franchises consistently bringing up the rear, their respective unions and boards will never agree to the originally proposed promotion relegation system which was initially supposed to put the Southern Spears team into the Super 14.

Early reports suggest that aside from pushing for a sixth team, they are also keen to have the Argentineans included with the fold.

Doubts though have always existed due to the lack of a top level Argentine domestic completion and the concerns over geographic location.  The fact is that the bulk of their elite players ply their trade in Europe, so would these clubs then release these players for duty in the Super 14?

Australia and their typically outspoken boss John O’Neill are looking at a fifth franchise for Australia, which would be logical for a three-conference format.  But the composition of this team would be the sticking point.  Australia does not have enough local players to warrant a fifth team.

Would they stack it with Pacific Island players?

But then would not the Pacific Island’s themselves warrant having a team within the competition, with Samoa, Fiji, and Tonga playing a tournament to decide the entrant? And would it be considered lucrative enough for a money driven contract?

And then of course there is Japan, a rich economy which would add a huge audience to the Super championship.  But logistically how would it work?  Would you, like Argentina, allow the national team entry?

There has also been talk of shifting competition dates, and clearly with a proposed six-team finals format, this would be a far longer Super tournament. 

But this cannot be at the risk of existing provincial championships.  The Currie Cup is a fortification of the South African game, and while some senior South African may think that Super rugby has succeeded their domestic trophy, a sold out 2008 Currie Cup finals series disagrees with that theory.

While the Air New Zealand Cup has had its ups and downs, it is a foundation of the New Zealand game, and while the competition may needs its alterations, neither tournament should be at risk.

One thing we all can agree on is that Super rugby always appears to end too soon, and a lengthened championship will be eagerly awaited by the fans—if not the players...