Who Will Win the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament? Part Two

Who will win the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament?

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In Part One of this article, I took a hard look at the statistical profile of the past dozen NCAA champions. From the very basics of that profile, I was able to make a "short list" of potential champs in 2009, consisting of the following 14 teams: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Michigan State, and LSU.

I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the 2009 champion is one of these teams. The next step, of course, is to eliminate teams one by one, slowly but surely working our way towards the eventual national champ.

Our first step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home. In most years, we’ll find a sub .500 road record or two, an instant elimination. This year, we have no sub .500 road records in this group, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be bouncing three teams based on their road results right here, right now.

Kansas has a grand total of one quality road win all year—last week, on national TV, at Oklahoma, when the Sooners were playing without National Player of the Year candidate Blake Griffin. The other five road wins all came against squads that aren’t going to the Big Dance this year. The Jayhawks are 6-4 SU on the highway, but the four losses tell a big story: at Syracuse, Arizona, Michigan State, and Missouri.

It’s a similar story with Missouri, a team with only one quality road win all year, at Texas. The Tigers lost at Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Xavier. Road wins against the likes of Fairfield, Georgia, and Iowa State don’t count for much in March.

I’m going to bounce Marquette here as well. The season-ending injury to star senior guard Dominic James is nothing short of devastating for a team that relied almost exclusively on their backcourt trio. The loss of James leaves the Golden Eagles without the necessary depth to compete for a title.

Impressive early season road wins at Northern Iowa, Providence, and Notre Dame (impressive at the time, at least) are now overshadowed by recent road losses at South Florida, Villanova, and Louisville. Marquette is a 10-point underdog at Pitt tonight. If they pull the upset, I’m willing to reconsider, but the moneyline says otherwise—Marquette is nearly a 5:1 underdog to win this game outright.

Next, we move to defensive acumen, based on the most underrated stat in all of college basketball—defensive field goal percentage allowed. UConn, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Oklahoma all rank in the Top 25 nationally in this key stat. LSU, Villanova, North Carolina, Pitt, and Michigan State aren’t far behind.

Clemson ranks No. 107 in the country. Duke ranks No. 149. Those are not national championship type numbers—a champion’s defense has to be able to carry the team on a night when their shots are not falling. The Tigers and Blue Devils get eliminated from contention right here.

LSU gets bounced next for their likely seeding. The Tigers played a very weak non-conference schedule. Their only game against a likely NCAA foe in non-conference play was a 30-point loss at Utah. They also lost their second toughest game, at Texas A&M. The SEC is way down this year, leaving them looking at a schedule ranked in the high 90s, even with their stellar run through the conference.

The Tigers are going to be a No. 4 seed or higher, even if they win every game from now until the SEC Tournament is through. The eventual champion has been seeded no lower than No. 3 in every year dating back to 1997. Sixteen of the last 19 national champions have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.

I like this LSU team a lot, but I play no favorites in this column—the stats and hard numbers do my work for me.

As we continue with the statistical profile of a champion, interior play is next on the list. The statistic that we’ll use is rebounding margin. Pitt, UConn, and Michigan State rank 1-2-3 in the nation in rebounding. North Carolina ranks No. 7. Wake ranks No. 23. Oklahoma ranks No. 24. Villanova ranks No. 35.

Clearly this is a stat worth paying attention to. Inside/outside balance is key to making a run in March—teams that don’t control the paint don’t win national championships. This is where Louisville falls short, ranked No. 86 nationally in rebounding.

OK, we’re down to seven serious contenders: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt, Villanova, and Michigan State. Check back later in the week for the conclusion of this article, as I narrow down this list even further to settle on the eventual champion.