UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine Preview

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Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine - After his brutal KO victory over Wanderlei Silva, many MMA fans and critics expected Quinton Jackson to get a shot at regaining the UFC light heavyweight title against current champion Rashad Evans.

For whatever reason, the UFC disagreed and instead decided to matchup Jackson against Keith Jardine.

The matchup is peculiar to be sure. Jardine is coming off a split decision victory over Brandon Vera after being brutally viciously knocked out by Wanderlei Silva at UFC 84. I already mentioned Jackson’s victory against Wanderlei at UFC 92, which was “Rampage’s” first fight since losing the UFC light heavyweight title to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86.

If Jackson wins this fight, he will most definitely get a shot at his former title in his next fight. A victory for Jardine does not guarantee the same thing however. First, a win would make Jardine 3-2 in his last five fights, not exactly stellar.

Secondly, if Rashad Evans is still the champion, Jardine has already stated he would not fight his training partner.

Enough of the extraneous chatter though, let’s look at this fight for the matchup it presents.

Keith Jardine has proven over his UFC career that he has the tools and potential to be a top-level fighter. Unfortunately for the “Dean of Mean,” he also possesses some tendencies that may keep him in the middle-tier of the division.

Jardine’s striking is similar to Chuck Liddell’s style in that he throws wide looping punches while his body is squared up to his opponent. This technique leaves Jardine’s defensive a bit wide open and easy for a technical striker to exploit.

Keith Jardine also possesses an excellent kicking game and he utilizes leg strikes better than most MMA fighters. One only needs to look at Chuck Liddell’s stomach and chest after his fight with Jardine to verify this.

Quinton Jackson has really reinvented himself since his early days in PrideFC. Sure Jackson has had some well-publicized troubles recently with his long-time trainer and with the law, but since joining the Wolfslair Gym in England Jackson has been laying lowing and concentrating on his fight game.

Jackson’s lone blemish since 2005 came against Forrest Griffin at UFC 86. Personally, I still contend that Jackson should have won that fight on points, but the judges saw things differently.

No one will question Quinton’s strength and knockout power. The time “Rampage” spent training with Juanito Ibarra was time well spent as Jackson greatly improved the technical aspects of his striking game.

For Keith Jardine to be successful in this fight, he needs to attack Quinton Jackson where Jackson has always been susceptible: the Muay Thai game. In the fight against Griffin, we saw how Jackson wasn’t able to compete effectively when his legs are taken out from under him.

Jardine needs to utilize his leg kicks and try to knock down the knees and thighs of Quinton Jackson. If he can be successful in attacking Jackson’s legs, Quinton won’t be able to use his footwork as a base for his defense and striking.

Quinton Jackson, on the other hand, just needs to fight his game and be aware of checking Jardine’s kicks. Jardine’s striking is not up to par with Jackson’s and his porous should be easy for a fighter like Quinton to exploit.

I think we’ll see some exciting back and forth in this fight, but the fight will end with Jardine going down via another spectacular Quinton Jackson knockout.

Winner: Quinton Jackson

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin - The UFC heavyweight division is once again become a tough, important division and this fight is a good showcase of the UFC heavyweight talent.

Shane Carwin remains undefeated at 10-0, but this fight with Gabriel Gonzaga will easily be his toughest test to date. Half of Carwin’s victories have come via submission while the other half have come via TKO, so he has talent in both aspects. Grappling is probably not something Carwin wants to do with Gabriel Gonzaga, however.

Gabriel Gonzaga burst onto the heavyweight scene at UFC 70 with a superb KO victory over Mirko Filipovic. Unfortunately, “Napao” followed that excellent performance up with losses to Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum.

The UFC worked to rebuild Gonzaga’s status slowly giving him easy matchups against Justin McCully and Josh Hendricks, both of whom he defeated.

This matchup is a pivotal one for both men and I think we should see an entertaining fight. While probably not the best gameplan, I think Gonzaga will attempt to stand and strike with Carwin and ultimately lose as a result.

Winner: Shane Carwin

Pete Sell vs. Matt Brown - Why this matchup is getting main card billing is somewhat of a mystery to me.

After three straight losses in the UFC, Pete Sell managed to pull out a strong decision victory over Josh Burkman at UFC 90. Sell’s strength clearly is his power and striking game, but that has also been his weakness in the past.

Sell typically likes to throw his bombs while looking for a spectacular KO, and that has left him vulnerable on several occasions.

In his fight against Burkman, Sell remained poised throughout the entire fight and that composure and gameplan gave him the victory. If the “Drago” who fought Burkman shows up in this fight, I think Sell will have back-to-back victories for the first time since 2005.

Matt Brown really is an up-and-down fighter who specializes in nothing. If Brown can avoid getting caught by Sell’s punches and frustrate the NY native, he may be able to pick Sell apart with the jab. Neither fighter is great on the ground, but Brown probably has the advantage if the fight heads to the mat.

I just think both fighters are going to stand and trade blows, and if that is the case, the odds are good for a Sell victory.

Winner: Pete Sell

Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz - While both fighters insist their fight won’t be a wrestling battle, I think both are fooling themselves.

Both Munoz and Hamill are strong wrestlers and are pretty much mirror images of each other. Munoz probably has the better overall wrestling background and technique, but Hamill probably has an edge in the striking game.

I anticipate Hamill will want to keep the fight standing early on, while Munoz will look to land a takedown and work his vicious ground-and-pound.

This fight will hit the ground at some point, and when it does there are two potential outcomes. First, a somewhat boring struggle for position and technical points, or we will see some strong ground-and-pound from either fighter that could provide some fun-to-watch excitement.

Winner: Matt Hamill

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller - Smart money is probably on Gray Maynard in this fight. Maynard’s wrestling is excellent, probably the best in the UFC’s lightweight division. Maynard’s career has been built on taking his opponent down and grinding out a decision victory from the top, and I think Maynard will try the same approach in this fight.

Jim Miller, however, has the submission skills necessary to be able to work off his back and pull a victory out of a potentially bad situation. The potential is there for Maynard to just employ a wet blanket strategy and smother Miller for a full, boring 15 minutes.

I think at some point during those 15 minutes that Miller will find an opening and secure some kind of submission for the victory.

Winner: Jim Miller

Undercard

Tamdan McCrory vs. Ryan Madigan - Winner: Tamdan McCrory

Kendall Grove vs. Jason Day - Winner: Jason Day

Tim Boetsch vs. Jason Brilz - Winner: Jason Brilz

Brandon Vera vs. Michael Patt - Winner: Brandon Vera

Aaron Riley vs. Shane Nelson - Winner: Aaron Riley