Picking Winners and X-Factors for All Week 3's Games

Week 3's here. It's a week that boasts a handful of games that, on paper, appear to have the potential to captivate. 

Peyton Manning hosting the Houston Texans. Tony Romo against a competitive Tampa Bay Buccaneers club. Robert Griffin III's debut in D.C. Mike Vick facing the defensively-stout Arizona Cardinals in the battle of the unbeatens. 

Oh yeah, and Tom Brady heads to the Ravens' Nest to square off with Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Ray Lewis.

Let's get to the picks. This week, I included each game's X-Factor. 

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears

What can we make of the Chicago Bears? One thing's for sure, if the offensive line struggles like it did in Week 2, Jay Cutler will get discouraged, probably yell at his teammates and "Smokin' Jay Cutler" will gain popularity. 

In all seriousness, the Bears have immense talent on both sides of the football, it's just a matter of simple execution—you know, not trying to overcomplicate anything. 

The St. Louis Rams seem to be a more formidable foe than initially expected with Sam Bradford regaining confidence in the pocket and a healthy Danny Amendola out wide. 

Chicago's typically much better at home than on the road, and even if star running back Matt Forte can't go, Michael Bush is a capable backup. 

Right now, it seems like both defenses have the ability to be stingy when they want to be, but consistency is the main issue. 

Cutler will rebound in a game that 10 years ago would have been considered a shootout. 

Bears 34 Rams 28

X-Factor: Michael Bush

Bush will prove to be a calming offensive asset for Cutler and the Bears' offense. 

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Ah, the Battle of Lake Erie, or the battle of decade-long mediocrity and organizational dysfunction. 

Either one. 

The Buffalo Bills are fresh off a convincing win over a clearly flawed Kansas City Chiefs team that many believed would contend for an AFC West crown in 2012.

The Cleveland Browns were competitive against the Cincinnati Bengals on the road, and solid efforts from Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson provided fans a glimmer of hope for the future. 

Joe Haden's absence will hurt Cleveland, but expect Chan Gailey's collegiate-like spread offense to lean on the league's leading rusher C.J. Spiller, a guy with elite speed and acceleration who's been running through gaping holes which have paved by an underrated offensive line. 

The Browns will prove to be a tough out every week, but overall the Bills have more talent and should squeak out a win by a touchdown. 

Bills 27 Browns 20

X-Factor: Cordy Glenn

The 6'5'', 340-pound Glenn will keep Browns pass-rushers at bay and create huge holes on the left side for Spiller. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 against the New York Giants—Good Tony Romo. 

Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks—Bad Tony Romo. 

Lucky for him, he faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' secondary in Week 3, a unit that's allowed over 400 yards through the air thus far in the 2012 season. 

Sure, a 510-yard gem from Eli Manning doesn't help that average, but remember—Cam Newton went over 300 in Week 1, a game in which the Bucs played relatively well on defense. 

At home, Romo should have a fine afternoon. 

But, we mustn't underestimate Tampa Bay's offense. 

It's balanced with playmakers on the outside and a steady quarterback. 

Josh Freeman, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson will make a valiant comeback effort after trailing at the half, but will ultimately fall short. 

Cowboys 30 Buccaneers 24

X-Factor: Kevin Ogletree

Another big afternoon for Week 1's hero against a weak secondary that'll be paying attention to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. 

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

With everyone fixated on a relatively raw rookie quarterback and the lack of talent at the wide receiver position, the Miami Dolphins intelligently put the offensive onus on establishing the running game. 

Boy, did they ever establish the run against the Oakland Raiders in Week 1. 

Ready for these Florida State vs. Savannah State-esque numbers? As a team, Miami carried the ball 43 times for 263 times and four touchdowns. 

Reggie Bush pitched in with 197 total yards and two of those scores. 

The New York Jets' front seven is solid and prides itself on stopping the run. 

Neither club is dynamic through the air, but the Jets will have an easier time slowing down Ryan Tannehill and Co. 

In a low-scoring affair, Gang Green should sneak out of South Beach with a win. 

Jets 16 Dolphins 10

X-Factor: Muhammad Wilkerson

He'll be a lynchpin in the Jets' run-stuffing efforts. 

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. 

Ask anyone. 

After wins over the Packers in Green Bay and the Detroit Lions in San Francisco, it's hard to say San Fran isn't the top club right now. 

Alex Smith should have another efficient performance against a mediocre Minnesota Vikings secondary, and don't think Frank Gore will be stymied on the ground. 

Adrian Peterson will be given his first major workload of the season, but this 49ers front seven is so powerful and technically sound that you shouldn't expect AP to have a big afternoon.

Christian Ponder will be the next victim of the 49ers' vaunted defense. If he does get time to throw, Minnesota simply doesn't have enough playmakers to do damage against San Fran. 

49ers 30 Vikings 13

X-Factor: Ahmad Brooks

Playing alongside Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, it's hard for Brooks to sneak into the headlines. After a strong game against AP, he'll get some pub.  

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

No way the New Orleans Saints start 0-3 and 0-2 at home.

[Gulp] 

Right? 

No way. 

Seriously, they'll beat the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday. Drew Brees will clean up the uncharacteristic mistakes that've plagued him through two games, and the Saints will get their swagger back against a Chiefs team that can't get anything done on either side of the ball. 

Matt Cassel and the Chiefs may come out inspired in the first quarter after two horrendous efforts, but Brees will dice through the KC secondary and the New Orleans defense will create turnovers, en route to a much-needed win. 

Saints 38 Chiefs 24

X-Factor: Lance Moore

The crafty slot option will dominate the Chiefs' defensive backfield all game. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins

The Nationals just clinched a spot in MLB's playoffs, and Robert Griffin III is making his home debut this weekend. 

Quite the time to be a Washington D.C. sports fan. 

RG3 has been spectacular in his first two pro outings and really, could easily be 2-0. 

However, the losses of Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo are huge on the defensive side of the ball and will force Griffin III to be nearly perfect to beat a team like the Cincinnati Bengals. 

This will be a compelling game, with Dalton and Griffin III shredding the opposition's secondary throughout. 

The Bengals haven't played exceptionally well on defense yet, but with the Redskins in many obvious passing situations in the second half, they'll play opportunistically and ruin RG3's D.C. premier. 

Bengals 34 Redskins 31

X-Factor: Andrew Hawkins

It's like Marvin Lewis popped in Madden '13, went to "Create A Player" and made the most shifty, hard-to-tackle wide receiver, the ideal complement to deep threat A.J. Green. After that, he used the "Create In Real Life" option to bring Andrew Hawkins to the field.  

He'll wreak YAC havoc against the 'Skins. 

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

Is anyone else a little surprised that the Tennessee Titans have been this bad to start the season? 

CJ2K? 

Ha. 

Not only have Jake Locker and Chris Johnson floundered, but the defense has been atrocious. 

Then again, they've played Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. 

Well, things won't get easier this week against Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson—that's for sure. 

Another drubbing for Mike Munchak's group. 

Lions 38 Titans 20

X-Factor: Titus Young

Someone else has to catch passes besides Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, right?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

A few years back, this matchup featured David Garrard and Peyton Manning and usually was always closer than everyone expected. 

Now, it's Andrew Luck and Blaine Gabbert, two quarterbacks that'll see a lot of each other in the future. 

Luck displayed dramatic improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 and was visibly comfortable throwing passes from inside and outside the pocket. 

Gabbert's been better, too. He's not dealing with as many collapsing pockets, and he too appears to be more comfortable than he did during last year's abomination. 

Right now, the Colts have more offensive weapons, and they'll lead Luck to his second win in three games. 

Colts 23 Jaguars 17

X-Factor: Donnie Avery

Quick. Who was the first wideout picked in the 2008 draft? Yup, that's right, Donnie Avery. He has emerged as a favorite target for Luck and will continue to get open in the Colts' attack. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

A month ago, everyone (including yours truly) penciled this as a win for Eagles. 

Duh, it's the Cardinals. Yeah, the team with the horrible quarterback situation. Well, we all forgot how athletically imposing Arizona's defense is. 

Sure, they were fortunate to beat the Patriots last week, but they did a marvelous job limiting Tom Brady and making him look like the 199th overall pick. 

Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett formulate the best defensive line duo no one talks about, and Daryl Washington is about as active as linebackers get in today's game.

The Eagles can't turn it over, but their defense should have no trouble slowing the Cardinals' offense to a halt. 

In an ugly, defensive-minded slugfest, the Cardinals sneak out another "stunning" victory by again winning the turnover battle. 

Cardinals 17 Eagles 14

X-Factor: Kerry Rhodes

Rhodes is still a viable safety, who'll play a major factor in stopping the Eagles' big plays. 

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

Passing yards, anyone? 

There will be plenty in this one, as Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan lead two of the most vertically explosive passing attacks in their respective conferences. 

OK, the Chargers aren't as vertically dynamic without Vincent Jackson, but you can't bet against Rivers when it comes to passing stats. 

He'll light it up. 

Atlanta's defense looks as opportunistic as ever (just ask Peyton Manning), but the Falcons struggle running the football. 

Ryan Mathews is scheduled to play, but the real question is: Will he get hurt again? 

At home, the Chargers' defensive line will make Atlanta one-dimensional, and Rivers will outduel Ryan in a typical new-age aerial clinic. 

Chargers 34 Falcons 28

X-Factor: Dante Rosario 

The relative unknown caught three touchdown passes against the Titans. He'll grab another red-zone score this week. 

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

This game will feature Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos' passing game against Arian Foster and the Houston Texans' power zone-blocking scheme. 

Manning certainly won't be as shaky as he was in Week 2 against the Falcons, but he may actually be facing a more stout defense against the Texans. 

Look for Denver to establish (or try to establish) Willis McGahee early to set up play-action later in the game. 

Matt Schaub will make the necessary throws, but Houston's ground game will keep him out of precarious situations. 

In a back-and-forth clash, Manning will outperform Schaub, but the Texans will show that they have more talent and will win by a score. 

Houston 30 Broncos 23

X-Factor: Ben Tate

Foster is the go-to man in Houston, but his backup is underrated. He'll score a touchdown this week and, as usual, will be the perfect change-of-pace runner. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

The Raiders look mystified on offense, and after seeing what the Miami Dolphins' running game did to them in Week 2, it's time to scale back the lofty expectations for the defense. 

Oakland won't be as out of sync as it has been through the first two games, but the Raiders are simply no match for even an injury-riddled Pittsburgh Steelers club. 

Ben Roethlisberger looked like the Big Ben of old last week against a strong Jets defense, and he'll make big plays when things break down in the pocket. 

Even without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, the Steelers will confuse Carson Palmer into a few turnovers that'll be the difference. 

Steelers 27 Raiders 13

X-Factor: Lamar Woodley

Don't forget about this stud pass-rusher. He'll be in Palmer's face all game. 

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are out for AFC Championship revenge, and the Patriots just need to get their heads on straight after a staggering loss to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Joe Flacco looked elite against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, but reverted to his old ways against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2. 

Ray Rice hasn't slowed down from last year's masterful campaign; he just needs his touches. 

Shockingly, the Baltimore defense hasn't been as stout as we're used to. Then again, playing without Terrell Suggs certainly doesn't help. 

The Patriots come into this hostile environment without Aaron Hernandez, one of the toughest matchups on the team. 

Neither team will be able to move the ball with ease, and at home, the Ravens will astutely feature Rice and ride the little big man to victory. 

Ravens 23 Patriots 20

X-Factor: Torrey Smith 

Though Rice will be the focal point of the Ravens' offense, Smith's speed will lead to a few huge plays down the field. 

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

I picked the Seahawks to beat the Cowboys at home last week, and they came through. 

Way to go, 12th man. 

Well, 12th man, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's defense. They all deserve credit. 

This week, they'll stick with Green Bay for most of the evening and will be the third team to make Aaron Rodgers look mortal. 

But, they simply don't have enough weapons on the outside to pull out a second-straight upset win. 

The Packers will turn it on in the fourth quarter and win handily, surviving the scare. 

Packers 31 Seahawks 20

X-Factor: B.J. Raji 

He was criticized for a bad 2011 season, but he's the key cog in limiting Marshawn Lynch.

(For those keeping score at home, I'm 19-13 on the season, but have yet to get a Thursday night game correct. Special thanks to Jay and Cam. Here are links to past picks - Week 1 and Week 2.)