UFC 96: Preview and Prediction

Let me start by saying it feels good to be doing one of these again. I didn't do one for the last two events because everyone did one for Penn vs. GSP and I didn't care to do one for the last event. There has been some new guys doing this sort of write-up and I got to say I’m not a fan of them.

I’m not calling anyone out, but asking for more research when doing thisisn't to much to ask. Brian Oswald just did a piece on how we as fans should demand better article so that we can get some love on B/R and writing two sentences about a fight isn’t how we get to that point. 

Once again this not me calling anyone out, just challenging writers to step up their game and write more insightful pieces. With that said on to the card. 

PRELIMINARY CARD

Ryan Madigan vs. Tamdan McCrory—who is Ryan Madigan?  Anyone?  Well I for one have never heard of him and what I can find out about him is that his is 5-0 and has fought guys with a combined total of 16-18 record, so he has fought a bunch of no one. 

I give him some credit in that he has all five of his wins by way of TKO or Submission, and has never seen the third round.  Tamdan McCrory on the other hand is a someone.  The Barn Cat is 10-2 with wins over UFC vets Luke Cummo and Pete Spratt.

He is very tall with some good striking skill and a developing ground game.  Tamdan will have a reach advantage from hell and I’ll assume he will use it, or at least he should.

My guess here is that Tamdan will use the reach advantage till the fight gets to the ground and Tamdan will overwhelm an inexperienced Madigan resulting in a first round RNC. Tamdan McCrory via first round RNC.

Tim Boetsch vs. Jason Brilz—in his second go around Jason Brilz moves up in competition facing Tim Boetsch. Brilz is a wrestler with nine of his 16 MMA victories coming by submission.

Tim Boetsch is a strong puncher and also has wrestling skills but from what I can find on Brilz is seems like his ground game is a bit more advanced than Boetsch. 

Experience goes the way of Boetsch so look for this fight to dependent on if Boetsch can keep it standing, if he does then good night Mr. Brilz. Tim Boetsch via TKO late in the first.

Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley—TUF alum Shane Nelson takes on a crafty vet in Aaron Riley which should be a nice fight between two young fighters. The good news for Nelson is that he is young and has a solid ground game; the bad news is that he is facing a better striker and a well rounded fighter in Aaron Riley. Look at Riley’s record and you see a who's-who list of talented fighter. 

Experience will be the key to this fight, and Nelson's only way to win is to pull something out of his ass, which I don’t see happening.  Aaron Riley via Decision.

Jason Day vs. Kendall Grove—in Grove’s last fight he got back to winning way by beating Evan Tanner (RIP). In that fight he showed the striking skills that had many feeling that the TUF winner could be a force in the middleweight division.

He faces Jason Day, who, in his last outing, looked like a fish out of water. Day has had some notable wins against guys like Jonathan Goulet, David Loiseau and Alan Belcher, but for me the question is which Jason Day will show up. 

Grove will have a damn tremendous reach advantage and normally uses it.  Day is going to have to find a way around Kendall’s long arms and leg to hope to land anything effective. 

That said if it goes to the ground I feel that Kendall has a slight advantage. I’m not a huge Kendall Grove fan, but I think someone like Day should fall prey to him. Kendall Grove via TKO in the second.

Mike Patt vs. Brandon Vera—The UFC really wanted to have Vera on the winning ways in order to use his like able personality to market to the growing Philippino fan base.   But Vera decided to hold out for a year and since then has gone 1-3. I still think the UFC wants him to get back to his old ways and poor Mike Patt is just the guy to fill in to that spot. 

Patt does have 12 wins with 9 coming by way of submission so if this fight were to go to the ground he could give Vera trouble.  That is until we remember that Vera is good there as well. 

There is little that would make me feel that Patt was nothing more than a face for Vera to punch.  Brandon Vera via KTFO in the first.

MAIN CARD

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller—I hate this match-up because one of my new favorite fighters in Jim Miller has a hard fight ahead of him.  Miller is a good striker and an even better ground fighter with some good submissions. 

Of his 13 wins, nine have come by submission and he is going to have to use every ounce of submission skill to try and stop the Bully. Gray Maynard is a great and I mean great wrestler with some developing standup skills.

He is 6-0 with one NC, but his down fall is that he is a great boring fighter. Four of his six wins are by decision and his last fight against Rich Clementi was slow with Maynard really doing nothing more than winning by lay 'n' pray.

Miller needs to try for submissions early and often to finish the fight or to at least make Maynard worried about it to prevent him from instantly going for the takedown. My thinking is that if Nate Diaz could submit Gray Maynard in TUF then so can Miller. Jim Miller via arm-bar early in the second.

Matt Brown vs. Pete Sell—personally I think that this fight should have been on the undercard, but I’m not the heads of the UFC. In any case this is going to be a stand-up war, with little to no ground fighting. 

Both guys like to bang and both do it well. Sell is very much like Jorge Gurgel in that if he would just take the fight to the ground he should have a huge advantage. He is a BJJ black belt under Matt Serra and Serra is said to be a hard guy to get a black belt under. But like Gurgel, he’d rather entertain the fans then get a win. 

I think Sell has better stand-up but leaves himself way to open to ever thing that any decent striker can’t land a shot on him, and I question his chin. So with that in mind I’d be a fool not to think that Brown could take this one. Matt Brown via Decision.

Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz—This is going to be a great fight and I’m super glad that the UFC made this happen. We all know Hamill’s story and most fans like him for his sheer determination. 

He is a above-average wrestler and has a good one-two combo that sets up the takedown. Mark Munoz is a real mirror image of Hamill with maybe less standup. 

He is a strong wrestler and is still early into his career which I feel that in this fight will be his downfall.  For the record it bums me out that Munoz’s first fight in the UFC will be a loss to a better fighter in Matt Hamill. 

If only the UFC would let him take baby steps and not leaps but what can you do. Matt Hamill via TKO in the first.

Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga—For some reason everyone is jumping off the Gonzaga wagon and jumping onto Carwin’s. I for one am a Gabriel Gonzaga fan and think that he is fixing his problems he had against Werdum and Couture.

In the Couture fight he looked nervous and really overwhelmed by the moment, in the Werdum fight I thought he was winning the fight with some sickeningly good leg kicks till Werdum landed the knee that ended the fight. 

I still think Gonzaga is one of the only fighters who could match with any heavyweight in power and strength.

Carwin is a young and future super star in the division. He has never been in the second round, but I think that has more to do with his lack of opponents. 

He is a top-notch wrestler and has big time power in his punches. So here is how I see this fight going. Gonzaga will take the center of the cage and land some leg kick early and often.

He is going to use his jab to keep the shorter fighter away and will get the takedown and rain elbows on Carwin similar to the elbow he landed on Cro Cop, then rinse lather and repeat.

The only difference in this fight than in the Cro Cop fight is that I feel that Carwin will have the since enough to try and move around to avoid getting punched in the face leaving him open to a RNC. 

Now do me a favor and if you’re going to argue my opinion then say something more intelligent than Carwin is a beast. He hasn’t fought a guy like Gonzaga and the experience factor will play to big of a role. Gabriel Gonzaga via RNC in the Second.

Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine—so easy answer to this fight would be Rampage via KTFO in one minute, but I don’t think that is going to happen. Now that doesn’t mean that I don’t think that Rampage has a more then 75 percent chance at winning, I’m just giving Keith Jardine a bit more credit. 

Rampage could easily look past Jardine to a fight against Rashad, thus allowing Jardine to fight his fight and pick Rampage apart. 

The fact is however that Rampage does hit harder and is more athletic than Jardine, but Jardine’s leg kicks are so damn good.  The thing is Jardine needs to keep his distance and get this fight into the second in order to have a chance at winning.   

My gut tells me that this fight will not end suddenly in the first and Rampage will have to earn this victory.  Or maybe I just hope that Rampage wins but has enough damage to allow Machida to fight Rashad so he can win the belt. 

Who knows, but back to this fight; I’m just hoping for a good fight. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson via Decision.

Fight of the night will go to Matt Brown vs Pete Sell. KO of the night goes to Brandon Vera. Submission of the night goes to Jim Miller.