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The 39th Ryder Cup: Rory vs. Tiger?

Tim LangevinSep 9, 2012

The golf world wants to see Rory McIlroy vs. Tiger Woods in the final singles match of the Ryder Cup set to take place at the end of this month.

We got a taste of it this past weekend in the first two rounds of the BMW Championship, and the two didn't disappoint. Both finished with sizzling minus-12 under par totals, setting the tone for a compelling showdown at the famed Medinah Country Club.

Imagine the storylines if they were to face off in the Ryder Cup—Rory "the Boy Wonder" McIlroy vs. "Superman" aka Tiger Woods. Youth against experience. Paradise found vs. paradise lost.  

McIlroy is the hottest player on the planet, winning three of the last four tournaments that he has entered. Still, Woods has also captured three wins this year and has begun to show signs of his old form. 

Both the United States and Europe team captains, Davis Love III and Jose Maria Olazabal, will have plenty of strategic decisions to make as the event unfolds, and it would be a huge injustice if the two best players in the world do not get the chance to collide in a titanic match. 

It would be one for the ages, and here's why.

Note: All stats compiled are through last week's Deutsche Bank Championship. Woods had played in 17 events and McIlroy has only played in 14.

Scoring

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McIlroy ranks second on the PGA Tour in scoring with a 69.85 average. Woods is third with a 69.93 average.

It's obvious that both of these players know how to navigate around a golf course, but the pivotal difference between the two greats is weekend play.

The 23-year-old McIlroy has a 68.9 Round Three scoring average and a 69.7 Final Round average. That equates to a 69.3 average on the weekends.

The 36-year-old Woods has been staying in contention through 36 holes, but has been unable to close the deal on Saturdays and Sundays. He is averaging 70.4 both days.

Granted, match play is a totally different animal. Regardless, both of these guys would put up red numbers right out of the gate. Woods and McIlroy have combined for over 400 birdies and 10 eagles.

Advantage: McIlroy because he has been more consistent the second half of the season.

Driving

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McIlroy ranks sixth in driving distance at 310.0 yards, but his driving accuracy percentage is 56.52, which ranks 157th. He is 57th in total driving.

Woods hits the ball 298.1 yards, good for 31st on tour, but his accuracy percentage is much better at 65.33, which ranks 34th overall. He is tops in total driving.

When McIlroy misses the fairway, the ball goes left  52.1 percent of the time, and 47.9 percent of the time it goes right. His misses average about 13.6 yards.

When Woods misses the fairway, the left rough spectators better duck. He misses 56.7 percent to the left and 43.3 percent to the right. His misses average around 15.9 yards.

Both players' radar stats are comparable. Woods generates a club head speed of 120.88 mph while McIlroy swings at 120.11 mph.

Their hang time is an identical 6.3 seconds.

McIlroy hits the ball higher, but Tiger carries the ball farther.

McIlroy's longest recorded drive of the season is 409 yards compared to Woods' 387 yards.

Advantage: Tiger because he can hit long irons and/or fairway metals 270 yards if the driver abandons him.

The Flat Stick

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Naturally, McIlroy and Woods are solid putters or they wouldn't be No. 1 and No. 2 on the money list, respectively.

Woods is ranked 25th in strokes gained and McIlroy ranks 73rd.

When putting from inside five feet, Woods has the slight advantage with a 97.19 success rate compared to McIlroy's 96.51 percentage.

However, the difference-maker is mid-range to long-range putting, and Woods has a decisive advantage. From 20-25 feet, he has drained 20 percent of his putts. On putts greater than 25 feet, Woods has converted 6.59 percent of the time.

McIlroy converts only 13.89 percent from 20-25 feet and a paltry 1.50 percent of putts from the clubhouse.

Advantage: Tiger because the numbers don't lie.

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Greens in Regulation

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Once again, Woods has the definite advantage. He has hit 67.61 percent of greens in regulation compared to 66.06 percent for McIlroy.

Woods can zero in on his mid-irons from 175-200 yards out with 63.78 percent accuracy, which ranks second. McIlroy is sixth with a 62.07 mark.

Woods is the more consistent of the two from 75-100 yards. He has converted 82.61 percent of his approaches compared to a 62.50 percent for McIlroy. That's a huge difference.

Another tell-tale stat is GIR from less than 100 yards. Woods ranks sixth at 90.83 percent, while McIlroy ranks a distant 104th with a 84.96 percentage.

Advantage: Tiger because his iron play is as good as it gets. Even during his fall from the rankings, his iron game was consistent. 

Scrambling

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Perhaps, with the exception of Phil Mickelson, there is no better player than Woods when it comes to creativity and imagination around the greens.

Woods has missed 344 GIR this year, but has converted 63.37 percent for up and down pars or better, good enough for third on tour.

McIlroy has missed 281 greens and has managed to save par or better 59.43 percent of the time, good enough for a ranking of 40.

Making his second Ryder Cup appearance, McIlroy leads Woods in sand saves with a 50.77 percentage compared to Woods' 50 percent.

When scrambling from less than 30 yards, Woods is 12th with a 37.20 percentage. McIlroy is 111th with a 25.93 percent.

Advantage: Tiger because the short grass is his canvas and the wedge and putter are his strokes of genius.

Par 3 Performance

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When it comes to Par 3 performance, McIlroy is one of the top players on tour. He ranks fourth with a 2.99 average and leads the tour with 35 birdies on those holes.

Woods ranks 16th with a 3.03 average and has recorded 40 birdies, ranking fifth on tour.

Medinah's Course No. 3 has four challenging par 3's. The first is hole No. 2, which measures 192 yards over water. The wind usually blows in and across the face of the players. Woods will probably hit 8-iron and McIlroy will use a 7-iron.

The next Par 3 is hole No. 8 with guarded bunkers and a green that slopes heavily from left to right. It will play 201 yards and both players will likely hit a high, right to left 7-iron draw.

Medinah's signature hole is the 13th, which measures 245 yards over Lake Kadijah. It could decide the match. Woods will have a slight advantage hitting a long iron compared to McIlroy who may hit a fairway metal or hybrid.

Hole No. 17 is 193 yards over water, but danger lurks long and left. Expect Woods to hit 8 or 9-iron and McIlroy 7 or 8-iron to this relatively flat green.  

Advantage: Rory because he has no fear of targeting the flag-sticks.

Par 4 Performance

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Making his eighth Ryder Cup appearance, Woods has played the Par 4's as good as anybody on tour this season. He ranks fourth with a 4.00 scoring average and has recorded 102 birdies.

McIlroy ranks 16th with a 4.03 average and has converted 93 birdies, an 18.45 percentage, good enough for 10th place.

The No. 3 Course features 10 four-par holes, including the 15th which has a new forward tee allowing the hole to be set as short as 280 yards. The normal length is 391 yards. If the tees are up Sunday, it could prove to be the most entertaining as well as devastating hole on the course.

The monster sixthth hole measures 509 yards, forcing the players to hit driver and medium-iron to an elevated green.  

Advantage: Tiger; based solely on Par 4 scoring average. 

Par 5 Performance

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Let the fun begin.

McIlroy owns the slight edge with a 4.52 average on the five-par holes compared to Woods with a 4.59 clip.

The 160-pound McIlroy has posted 72 birdies which places him 3rd in the rankings. He converts 51.43 percent of his opportunities. In addition, he has posted six eagles.

The 185-pound Woods has notched 86 birdies at a 45.99 percent rate with four eagles.

Both McIlroy and Woods are capable of reaching all four Par 5's in two. However, hole No. 7 measures 617 yards and will require two perfect golf shots. The green is elevated, so it's all carry.

Hole No. 5 is the shortest on the course, measuring 536 yards. It has been labeled a risk/reward shot and the key is to hit the tee shot down the left side of the fairway. Both golfers will probably hit a hybrid combination to reach the green in two.

The back side opens with a 578-yarder. Once again, the challenging decision will be to play aggressive or conservative. Once the two players arrive safely, they will face a sloping back-to-front, diabolical green. Both players may choose to hit 3-metal off the tee to avoid the fairway bunkers on the right.

Hole No. 14 could be the pivotal hole of the match. It's the last of the five-pars and plays 609 yards. A long drive up the hill is necessary to hit this green in two. Another challenge will be the overhanging trees that front the green.

The leader will probably play conservative and the trailer might go for it in two.

Advantage: None. Both players have been known to devour Par 5s.

Who Wins?

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That is the million-dollar question.

Woods leads in five of the eight categories discussed. He has appeared in seven Ryder Cups with a 13-14-2 overall record. In the 2010 event, Woods posted a 3-1-0 mark.

McIlroy is appearing in just his second Ryder Cup and was 1-1-2 in his first appearance at the Celtic Manor Resort in Newport, Wales.

That being said, Rory will defeat Tiger 3 and 2 on the 16th hole for a come-from-behind victory. Face it, when crunch time arrives, Woods will disappear.

The swashbuckling kid with Huck Finn looks has the swagger, and Woods is still searching to regain it.  

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