Maurice Jones-Drew: All-Pro RB's Production Will Decline in 2012

Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the league's most talented ball-carriers, but he's also overused and currently holding out. Expecting his production to match last season's is unrealistic for the Jaguars' star player.

Jones-Drew is truly a rare specimen in terms of physical talent. He's a three-down back in an age where that's virtually nonexistent. His incredible durability and exceptional hands allow him to stay on the field, regardless of the down and distance.

However, durability can be a bad thing for running backs. It's the one position in the NFL with a very definite shelf life, and each back's peak is different.

He's played in all 16 games in four of his six NFL seasons. Since 2009, he's averaging 318 carries per season. He's also made at least 30 catches in each of his six seasons.

That's a lot of touches, even for a player with Jones-Drew's strong frame. At some point, he's going to decline.

When you add in the holdout factor, this year will be the year.

Not only is Jones-Drew already on the verge of missing Week 1 of the regular season, but his absence has given Rashad Jennings a chance to earn carries behind Blaine Gabbert. Jacksonville could, and probably should, use Jennings more this season.

Jennings' increased workload could help Jones-Drew's longevity, but it's not going to do anything for his 2012 production.

Realistically, he's looking at No. 4 status this year behind Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. That doesn't even account for potential stars like Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte.

Jones-Drew's statistics take a hit with each day he holds out at this point. His ability to tote the rock time after time is enviable, but it will eventually catch up to him.

He hasn't been in camp. We have no idea what kind of shape he is in because of that, and that only increases his chances of facing an injury when he does finally come back.

Fantasy football owners should approach this star player with caution. He's always going to tempt you with your first-round pick, but tread lightly this season.

Jones-Drew ran for over 1,600 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Expect his 2012 yardage to fall much closer to 1,000.