Tiger Woods' Weekend Collapse: A Statistical Breakdown

Yet another weekend goes by with the former world No. 1 and arguably one of the greatest golfers of all time fading to the back of the pack like an inexperienced rookie.

Tiger Woods began the third round of The Barclays just three strokes off of the lead before posting scores of 72-76 over the weekend, dropping him into a tie for 38th.

Woods walked off the course on Saturday afternoon having three-putted four times during the third round. In Woods’ 14-year professional career, Saturday was the first time he had ever recorded four three-putts during a single round.  

Amazingly, Woods needed a total of 61 putts to complete his final two rounds at Bethpage Black.

Sixty-one putts?

Sure, the greens took on a U.S. Open look and feel on Saturday afternoon, but 61 putts?    

You put a New York City construction worker out on Bethpage Black next weekend and it’s doubtful that he will need 61 putts to complete two rounds.

On Sunday, Woods hit just 43 percent of fairways and 33 percent of greens in regulation.

But the real damage came on the back nine on Sunday, where Woods played holes 12 through 16 at five over par en route to a back-nine score of 40.

Players occasionally lose their focus or let their nerves get the best of them over the weekend, but this is Tiger Woods we are talking about here—the guy who used to have a two-stroke advantage over his competition on Sunday simply by stepping foot on the golf course.

And the most disconcerting part for Woods has to be that this latest weekend disintegration of his golf game is not an anomaly, it’s more of a trend.

Woods currently ranks 55th on Tour in third-round scoring average and 36th on Tour in final-round scoring average; this from a guy who ranked first in final-round scoring average every year but one between 2005 and 2009, and prior to this season had never ranked higher than 15th in final-round scoring average.

So exactly where has Woods been hemorrhaging strokes?

Well, one needs to look no further than the putting green.

Woods currently ranks 41st on Tour in strokes gained putting, which is actually an improvement over 2010 and 2011, when he ranked 109th and 45th, respectively.  

So far in 2012, Woods is averaging .317 strokes gained putting per round, which means that he is averaging one-third of a stroke less on the greens per round when compared to the rest of the field. This equates to a total of 11.4 strokes gained during the course of the 2012 season.

As late as 2009, Woods was averaging .874 strokes gained per round and picked up nearly 42 strokes on the field throughout the course of the season. That is a difference of 30.6 strokes gained putting when you compare 2009 to 2012.

Just imagine what Woods could have done with 30.6 more strokes over the field this season, particularly when considering that he has been driving the ball better than he has in years (Woods currently ranks fifth on Tour in total driving).

Let’s for argument's sake put Woods’ 2009 putter in his hands this season. Each tournament Woods would have on average gained around 3.5 strokes over the field.

Take another 3.5 strokes from Woods' scorecards over the course of the 2012 season, and it’s not unreasonable to assume that he would have won at least The Honda Classic and most likely the Open Championship, in addition to the three tournaments he has already won.

Those 30.6 strokes Woods has lost on the greens in 2012 have been the difference between three wins and a very good season and four to five wins, possibly including a major, which is an outstanding season by anyone’s standards.  

So, that question that has been constantly hovering over Woods for the past three years—“Will Tiger ever be the same player again?”—really has a simple answer to it.

Unless Woods figures out a way to regain those 30.6 strokes he has lost to the field, he will not be the same player he once was.

In short, those 30.6 strokes lost on the greens have really been the main difference between the old Tiger and the new Tiger. 

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