Setting the Odds for Every NBA Superstar to Finish His Career with Current Team

Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan helped define the last decade as two big men who weren't only dominant individually, but successful at the highest levels of competition. 

One was an imposing center who simply outmatched opponents with his strength. The other was a skilled power forward who always made the right decision. They shared the fact that they were at the top of their respective games, but that's just about all they shared.

The end of Shaq's career was marred by unsuccessful stints with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. It wasn't entirely his fault that the Los Angeles Lakers traded him to the Miami Heat, but he probably should have called it quits after the Phoenix Suns acquired him.

The protracted ring-chasing took something away from his career, and that's something Tim Duncan will never have to worry about. The 36-year-old Duncan just took a pay cut so that the San Antonio Spurs could re-sign some role players.

He'll finish his career in a Spurs uniform, and his decline will be softened by the fact that he's surrounded by the same fans who watched him take the league by storm as a rookie.

There's something to be said for that continuity. Stars like LeBron James and Dwight Howard have already ensured they won't enjoy quite the same experience. Are they at their last stops?

Others, like Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant, seem to have already found their long-term homes.

Here's a look at the odds that the league's biggest superstars will retire with their current teams.

LeBron James, SF, Miami Heat

The good news for the Miami Heat is that team president Pat Riley will do a pretty good job of surrounding LeBron James with all the talent he needs. Even if Dwyane Wade begins his decline a few years before James is ready to begin his, it's hard to imagine Riley having anything short of a brilliant backup plan.

Plans aren't always enough, though, and there's always the chance that James will like a budding core he sees somewhere. Maybe he'll bring his career full-circle with a return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, or perhaps he'll target a more iconic basketball market like Chicago or New York.

James' first decision won't be his last.

He may very well stick around Miami for the life of another contract, but I'd guess he's headed elsewhere after that, either chasing more rings or just to pad his legacy.

Odds? 1-2

Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder

The thought of Kevin Durant leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder just doesn't resonate, both because of who Durant is and because of who the Thunder are.

For Durant's part, his personality fits a smaller market. He's the kind of player who's perfectly content to make a name without the aid of the extra media attention. And, that's one of the reasons people like him–he's not Dwight Howard.

More importantly, why would Durant want to leave?

He's part of a great organization that's loaded with elite, young talent. It's not like he'll find better opportunities elsewhere.

There were never any hiccups when KD inked his extension with the organization in 2010, and that's probably a sign of things to come.

Odds? 5-1

Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers

It's almost impossible to imagine Kobe Bryant leaving the Los Angeles Lakers. If he ever did play for another team, you'd have to think it would be one of those situations where a guy retires only to later decide he's not really ready to retire.

Even then, that's the one respect in which a superstar like Kobe doesn't want to follow in Michael Jordan's footsteps.

It's certainly possible that the Lakers and Kobe might have some disagreements about how much he should be paid when it's time to sign a new deal in 2014. But, it's highly unlikely those disagreements would translate into anything insurmountable.

For all the reasons Bryant wants to secure his legacy as a lifelong Laker, Los Angeles would presumably spend whatever it needs to spend to make that happen. 

Odds? 7-1

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose isn't leaving Chicago.

It's his hometown, one of the league's most storied franchises and an organization that's capable of keeping a winning team together. Even if Rose isn't motivated by loyalty alone, he'd be hard-pressed to find better opportunities to win elsewhere.

But, let's be real. This guy is pretty loyal. If you recall, he's the one who avoided recruiting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade back in 2010, opting instead to demonstrate his commitment to his current teammates.

Rose cares about winning, but he also cares about winning with dignity. 

That will make him a Chicago Bull for life.

Odds? 11-1

Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul might not even remain with the Los Angeles Clippers for the duration of another contract, much less the rest of his career.

Granted, his decision to forego an extension had more to do with waiting for the opportunity to sign a much larger contract (which according to the new CBA, he can only do once he's a free agent).

At the same time, though, it's not as if the Clippers' future is entirely clear. Outside of Blake Griffin (and to a much lesser extent DeAndre Jordan), Los Angeles doesn't have a wealth of young talent to sell Paul on.

It's put together a pretty good team on the spot, but a number of that team's key pieces are either toward the end of their prime years, or past them altogether. Given the uncertainty surrounding what the next chapter will look like, Paul's long-term future remains equally murky.

Plus, something about this marriage has always made it feel as though it had more to do with convenience than anything else. When a better opportunity comes Paul's way, he won't hesitate to take it.

Odds? 1-8

Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers

You better believe Dwight Howard is staying in L.A.

Yes, there's some small chance he could one day become so dissatisfied with a post-Kobe rebuilding effort that he once again throws a year-long fit. But, it would take a pretty epic bout of organizational failure for him to permanently wreck his image all over again.

Chances are Howard will be forgiven in time for his bush-league dealings with the Orlando Magic, but that might change if he did it again.

Besides, Howard is supposed to be the next great Lakers center. He wouldn't be able to secure that kind of legacy without a lengthy stay.

Odds? 4:1

Carmelo Anthony, SF, New York Knicks

Predicting Carmelo Anthony's future isn't easy.

The New York Knicks always seem to have the worst luck, whether on the floor or in the front office. If this team doesn't turn into a legitimate contender pretty fast,, it's not hard to imagine it getting blown up at some point in the next two or three years.

On the other hand, remaining with the Knicks gives Anthony his best opportunity to recruit other star talent. He has a franchise in the biggest of markets to sell guys on, and he's not going to find that anywhere else.

And, as much as Anthony wanted to be in New York in the first place, can you really see him changing his tune?

Odds? 5-1

Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade isn't going anywhere.

He's older than LeBron James by three years, so he has absolutely no reason to go anywhere else. He gets to be the second-best player on this team, and he has the best chance of winning more rings that he'll find anywhere.

Is there any chance at all that he leaves?

Yes, technically. After another title or two, it's not hard to imagine Wade tiring of locker-room dynamics or otherwise deciding there's nothing left for him to prove in Miami. Perhaps he could play out his remaining years back in Chicago, but that seems like the only destination he'd seriously entertain.

That kind of scenario is a bit of a stretch, though. Wade will retire with the Heat.

Odds? 7-1