Marquez Vs. Diaz: Lightweight Supremacy in the Lone-Star State

The fight between Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz this weekend in Houston has fight-of-the-year possibilities. Marquez, the linear lightweight champion of the world, was set to defend his portion of the lightweight title in Houston, Texas—the backyard of the younger challenger, Diaz.

That’s probably enough for most boxing fans.  But two weeks ago, Nate Campbell, the only other man in the division who could’ve made a legitimate claim to supremacy, lost his belts on the scales.

Diaz vs. Marquez is now for the undisputed championship of the world, and a couple of trinket, alphabet belts have been thrown in the pot as well. The ante had been raised and neither man had to play their hand.

Diaz is all in. This is his chance to regain the top position in the division and possibly big-money fights out of the division in the future.  The two big factors weighing heavily in favor of Diaz are his age and location. Youth, however, is clearly the more important of the two. 

Diaz is a full ten years younger than Marquez and has fought his whole career at lightweight. We’ve seen recently that youth doesn’t automatically equate to victory (See Hopkins vs. Pavlik), but we’ve also seen fighters turn old overnight.

The crowd itself at the Toyota Center won’t necessarily be the difference in the fight.  The fan base for boxing in Mexico is rabid, and Marquez will have his share of fans in attendance. But rather, it’s the comfort that Diaz must feel while being in his hometown that could make the difference. 

The thought of a hometown gift can’t be that far out of the mind of Marquez.  In fact, he needs to look no further than the primary undercard fight to see the chief beneficiary of what many thought was a gift decision against himself.

Several years ago, Marquez ventured to Indonesia to fight Chris John in his backyard and came home the loser.  If Marquez feels the fight is close late, it’s a notion that could creep to the forefront of his psyche. 

None of the aforementioned issues should lead one to believe that Marquez is mentally fragile. In fact he’s quite the opposite.  He’s been in with the tougher competition, albeit mostly in lower weight classes. 

He did knock out Joel Casamayor, a man who had never been knocked out, to become the lightweight champion.  And he’s fought Manny Pacquiao, the man many consider the pound-for-pound best in the world, to a virtual standstill. After two fights, Pacquiao is up one point.

It’s safe to say that Marquez isn’t intimidated by Diaz.

The fight itself will be a study in contrasting styles.  Diaz wants to come forward and apply pressure. He’s not the hardest puncher in the division, but the constant physical pressure can gradually become mental pressure as well. 

In his last fight with Michael Katsidis, Diaz displayed more than just a bum-rush, bullish style that we’ve come to expect from him.  He showed extreme ring generalship. He circled all night, just enough to fluster Katsidis, and wouldn’t let him get off punches when he seemingly had his best opportunities.

Marquez, however, is the five-star general of ring generalship. Often times the word technician is used to describe fighters, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone outside of Joe Calzaghe or Floyd Mayweather, Jr. who is a superior boxer to Marquez.  He’s a classical boxer who can throw many different punches with both hands. 

As silly as it may sound, and for all of his accomplishments and all of the praise he does receive, it’s possible that Marquez is actually still underrated in the overall boxing scene.  He’s that good.

Diaz wants to control the tempo and wants to lean on Marquez.  He’s the naturally bigger man and since he’s younger, he’s probably looking to wear down the older Marquez with constant pressure, especially when they’re in close, by putting his weight on him. 

Marquez will want to keep it a boxing match. 

He’ll want to jab his way in or counter Diaz, who sometimes has a tendency to loop his punches.  Also, keep your eyes on the work Marquez does to Diaz's body.  Diaz has never been a physical specimen per say, and was susceptible to a vicious body assault in his only loss—to Campbell. 

There is no better way to slow down a fighter that wants to come forward than to batter his body. 

In the long run, if Marquez doesn’t wilt under the pressure applied by Diaz, he’ll emerge victorious in a twelve round decision of what should be a very exciting fight.