Adrian Peterson: Fantasy Draft Value, Red Flags and Predictions for Vikings RB

A year ago, this article would have been pretty short and would have gone something like this: Select Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings with the top overall pick in your fantasy draft. The end.

Things aren't so cut and dry for his fantasy prospects this year, however. After tearing both the ACL and MCL in his left knee on Christmas Eve last year, it was uncertain whether or not he would even be able to return in time for the start of the regular season.

Remarkably, it appears he'll be good to go for Week 1. But it's raised major questions about whether or not the injury will reoccur and cause fantasy owners to question where they should draft the former fantasy stud this season. 

Peterson offers major risk. He also has the potential to give you huge returns at a bargain price this season. Let's take a closer look at Peterson's 2012 fantasy prospects.

Fantasy Strengths

Before last season, the least amount of rushing yards in a season Adrian Peterson compiled in his career was 1,298 (and he had 970 yards after 12 games last season). He's never finished with less than double-digit touchdowns.

In general, he's been pretty healthy, missing just three games in his first four seasons. That obviously changed last year, when he missed time with a high ankle sprain and tore up his left knee, but for a player with his workload, he's maintained a pretty good bill of health.

Besides, despite only playing 12 games last year, he still finished as the eighth-best running back in standard-scoring leagues.

And we know he's the man in Minnesota, so it's unlikely he'll lose any touches at the goal line or in third-down situations if the Vikings believe he's 100 percent healthy. The offense revolves around him, and for good reason—when he's healthy, he's the best back in the league.

So, if you think he'll stay healthy, there's no reason not to add him.

Fantasy Weaknesses 

Has the insane workload from his first five seasons in the league finally caught up to him?

Coming into last season, Peterson had logged three straight years of 300 or more touches. He has never shied away from contact, often violently thrusting his shoulders into defenders. For the first time last year, we saw the injury bug rear its head with the high ankle sprain and ACL tear.

It wouldn't be shocking if Peterson looked a step slow early in the season, or if the Vikings reduced his workload for the first month or so. There has to be concerns that Peterson is risking another knee injury by returning to action so quickly. 

Film Study

"But would he come back the same?" There isn't a bigger question in fantasy football this season.

Draft Day Value

In ESPN snake drafts, Peterson has an average draft position of 21.0. Clearly, a lot of people are concerned about the injury risks concerning the Vikings' back.

And why not? If I were Leslie Frazier, I would limit Peterson's touches early and rely more heavily on Toby Gerhart to keep AP fresh throughout the season. It's not crazy to think that Peterson will see a dip in production this year.

Still, the thought of having Peterson as an early-third-round pick is so tempting. Given his huge upside at that draft slot, you have to add him if he's available in the third round of your draft. That's the sort of pick that wins your league if he returns to form.

Handcuff him with Gerhart later on if you must. Just know that Peterson may end up being the steal of your draft if he drops into the third round. 

Tweet That Says It All

The NFL's Twitter account with what has to be my favorite story of the preseason thus far:

"

Vikings defense gets AP Rules: "If you touch him, you're cut." nfl.com/news/story/0ap…

— NFL (@nfl) August 15, 2012"

If it wasn't clear just how important Peterson is to the Vikings, it was made very clear at training camp this year.

Predictions

Games	Rush Yards	Rush TD	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD
13	1,050	10	200	1

I can't lie, I'm worried about Peterson this year. I'm worried that he'll be limited early in the season. I'm worried that we started to see something that will start popping up more in his career from here on out: injuries here and there that will limit his production.

And yet, I have this nagging suspicion that, despite all of my concerns, he'll still be a pretty solid fantasy option, especially for where he is being drafted. So my projections represent a compromise—modest in respect to Peterson's history, but solid when compared to most other backs.

Believe me when I tell you that if Peterson falls to me in the second round, I'll have a very hard time passing him up. No other player is as hard to project this season. No other back has a wider spectrum for possible output. 

I love me some All Day. I'm just afraid we'll have to adjust his nickname to "When Healthy" this year.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are cracking like a Ronda Rousey armbar.