San Francisco Giants: Why It Might Be Time to Get Optimistic About Tim Lincecum

For the 100th time this season, it's time to get optimistic about Tim Lincecum.

The San Francisco Giants ace and two-time Cy Young-winner has been a mess this year. Despite that, Giants fans have taken every opportunity to alternately proclaim their beloved Timmy either "dead" or "resurrected," each with heartfelt conviction—until his next start, when the proclamation generally flips.

Everything about Lincecum has been trending downward for the past three seasons. But, then again, it's pretty hard to trend upward from a pair of Cy Young seasons. Although some falloff was predictable, especially from a wispy fireballer with a quirky motion (those guys never hold up over the long haul), nobody saw this season coming.

Here's the problem with Lincecum this season, in a nutshell: He's walking too many hitters and allowing more hits and homers because his fastball velocity has been down.

Because of that, Lincecum's breaking stuff is less effective—he doesn't typically throw his split-change or curveball for strikes, which is a problem when hitters don't have to sit on his fastballs. Hitters are laying off his breaking stuff, which ends up below the zone, and waiting for a fastball that's been easier to hit than ever.

All this adds up to a Lincecum who doesn't trust his stuff and pitches defensively.

Which is why Lincecum's last start against the Dodgers on Tuesday matters so much. In LA, a number appeared that hasn't been around for a long time: 93.

As in, miles per hour.

That's right, Lincecum hit 93 on the gun a few times against the hated Dodgers on August 21. That's significant because if he can hump it up there with the velocity he showed a couple years ago, there's a domino effect on the rest of his arsenal. Suddenly, hitters can't tee off on an 89-mile-per-hour "heater." They've got to gear up for it if it's coming in at 93. That means his breaking stuff is more surprising and harder to adjust to.

You'll notice that against LA, hitters swung and missed at his breaking offerings below the zone. Those pitches weren't much different than they've been all year, but his increased fastball velocity made them too hard to pick up.

In short, Lincecum's rediscovered velocity makes him look a lot more like the pitcher he was three years ago.

So mark it down: Tim Lincecum is resurrected!

At least until his next start.