International Football: Ranking Every National Team After Friendlies

It's time for a new ranking.

In case you missed it, I began creating a new mathematical ranking system for international football teams earlier this month. The idea came from some frustration at the existing FIFA rankings, whose results are constantly defying logic.

In calculating these rankings, I take each match from the past four years and grade each team on their performance. In doing so, I take four factors into account:

• Result of the match (win, loss, draw, and scoreline)
• Importance of the match
• Strength of opponent
• Home/away/neutral

From their combined match grades, each team earns a score out of 1000 that is used to compare the teams.

Now, this system is still in its infancy. If you see something you disagree with, please comment below and give me some feedback. All thoughts are welcome.

Also, you will notice a few seemingly random changes from the last rankings. Do not fear: I just tweaked the formula a bit.

So, without further ado, here is the second installment of the FrankFA rankings.

209-181

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
209	Turks and Caicos Islands	4.64	206	208	- 1
208	Montserrat	10.65	206	207	- 1
207	South Sudan	11.10	199	Unranked
206	Bahamas	20.53	180	206	-----
205	Anguilla	29.22	203	205	-----
204	Sao Tome e Principe	32.76	131	204	-----
203	Mauritania	36.86	203	203	-----
202	US Virgin Islands	38.29	178	200	- 2
201	British Virgin Islands	38.83	191	202	+1
200	Cayman Islands	43.03	176	197	- 3
199	Brunei Darussalam	45.28	202	199	-----
198	Eritrea	48.52	187	198	-----
197	Timor-Leste	50.56	205	195	- 2
196	Bermuda	53.83	120	191	- 5
195	Aruba	55.08	157	193	- 2
194	Bhutan	55.64	206	194	-----
193	St Lucia	56.88	187	190	- 3
192	Guam	63.16	184	192	-----
191	Samoa	66.41	173	201	+10
190	American Samoa	66.65	182	196	+6
189	Dominica	73.61	172	187	- 2
188	Dominican Republic	76.60	118	183	- 5
187	Mongolia	77.00	183	188	+1
186	Djibouti	80.36	198	186	-----
185	Belize	81.59	132	178	- 7
184	Guinea-Bissau	83.92	169	184	-----
183	Central African Republic	84.61	71	182	- 1
182	Madagascar	86.93	165	174	- 8
181	Puerto Rico	87.78	138	177	- 4

Analysis

The bottom of these rankings is very similar to that of the last rankings.

South Sudan make their debut in the rankings, coming in at 207. Given their first result ever was a draw with Uganda, we might be able to expect South Sudan to shoot up the rankings soon.

The big movers between the two rankings are Samoa. This is quite understandable, as my tweaks were mostly geared toward the Oceanic zone.

Meanwhile, the Central African Republic has the biggest disparity between their ranking here and their ranking according to FIFA, with a difference of over 100 spots. This is the result of my penalizing the nation for pulling out of 2010 World Cup qualifying.

180-151

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
180	Tonga	90.25	174	185	+5
179	Macau	91.13	201	180	+1
178	Comoros	91.81	193	179	+1
177	Papua New Guinea	91.87	186	189	+12
176	Mauritius	94.98	194	181	+5
175	Somalia	96.51	190	176	+1
174	Kyrgyzstan	97.58	196	175	+1
173	San Marino	99.63	206	167	- 6
172	Liberia	105.77	117	172	-------
171	Seychelles	107.23	189	173	+2
170	Sierra Leone	107.32	57	170	-------
169	Nicaragua	107.83	139	171	+2
168	Curacao	115.84	165	166	- 2
167	Cook Islands	115.90	196	168	+1
166	Barbados	115.96	171	165	- 1
165	Pakistan	120.35	176	169	+4
164	Chad	124.32	118	163	- 1
163	St Kitts and Nevis	127.48	113	162	- 1
162	Laos	127.78	194	164	+2
161	Afghanistan	134.78	164	160	- 1
160	St Vincent/Gren	135.28	144	159	- 1
159	Suriname	135.50	135	154	- 5
158	Grenada	137.24	142	157	- 1
157	Cambodia	138.46	192	161	+4
156	Congo	145.22	92	158	+2
155	Cuba	152.02	149	150	- 5
154	Gambia	153.92	129	156	+2
153	Chinese Taipei	154.02	175	155	+2
152	Haiti	157.37	80	143	- 9
151	Andorra	158.11	200	142	- 9

Analysis

This section has quite a bit of differences to the FIFA rankings.

Like the Central African Republic, Sierra Leone are over 100 points lower in these rankings than in FIFA's. Given that the Africans have not qualified for any major tournament in the past four years, this makes some sense.

Again, the biggest mover in these rankings was an Oceanic team as Papua New Guinea rose 12 spots.

150-121

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
150	Swaziland	158.38	181	153	+3
149	Sri Lanka	159.19	179	152	+3
148	Nepal	163.61	162	145	- 3
147	Bangladesh	167.07	169	149	+2
146	Cape Verde Islands	170.43	78	148	+2
145	Niger	177.62	115	147	+2
144	Guyana	178.94	109	140	- 4
143	Equatorial Guinea	181.08	111	146	+3
142	Lesotho	182.13	167	144	+2
141	Turkmenistan	183.40	123	132	- 9
140	Antigua and Barbuda	184.16	100	136	- 4
139	Benin	189.32	77	137	- 2
138	Tajikistan	189.90	140	130	- 8
137	Hong Kong	195.08	154	139	+2
136	Burundi	199.62	133	135	- 1
135	Ethiopia	200.61	122	133	- 2
134	Maldives	201.34	161	134	-------
133	Solomon Islands	205.72	159	151	+18
132	Myanmar	216.09	184	128	- 4
131	Togo	216.42	99	125	- 6
130	Faroe Islands	216.51	153	120	- 10
129	Lebanon	217.37	127	122	- 7
128	Liechtenstein	220.54	148	123	- 5
127	Palestine	222.13	152	127	-------
126	Vanuatu	222.20	156	138	+12
125	Kazakhstan	225.21	145	110	- 15
124	Yemen	227.69	151	126	+2
123	Canada	228.27	79	124	+1
122	Namibia	234.76	113	129	+7
121	Malta	238.22	143	115	- 6

Analysis

This set of teams fall in fairly similar spots to the their FIFA rankings.

The big difference, though, is the Solomon Islands, who will be fighting for World Cup qualification in September.

Vanuatu moved up to 126, but should be on the fall soon given that they have already been eliminated from World Cup contention.

Canada is still a bit lower on these rankings than their 79th spot in the FIFA rankings, but their inability to make a World Cup or make a deep run in a Gold Cup might explain this. The Canadians should be able to move up with a few good results, though.

120-91

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
120	DR Congo	241.58	115	119	- 1
119	Libya	244.25	38	121	+2
118	India	246.88	168	107	- 11
117	Fiji	250.02	155	131	+14
116	Vietnam	250.38	146	116	-------
115	Trinidad and Tobago	251.21	81	101	- 14
114	Luxembourg	252.79	110	104	- 10
113	Guatemala	253.98	88	111	- 2
112	Guinea	254.48	74	118	+6
111	Rwanda	258.10	125	112	+1
110	Philippines	260.06	150	113	+3
109	Senegal	262.79	61	114	+5
108	Tahiti	264.30	136	141	+33
107	Indonesia	265.98	159	106	- 1
106	Mozambique	266.06	107	102	- 4
105	Burkina Faso	266.53	87	109	+4
104	Zimbabwe	269.96	106	108	+4
103	Singapore	274.26	162	103	-------
102	Malaysia	278.17	157	105	+3
101	Cyprus	291.63	123	98	- 3
100	Armenia	297.85	56	91	- 9
99	Morocco	302.79	68	100	+1
98	Northern Ireland	303.19	101	82	- 16
97	Angola	303.30	85	99	+2
96	Thailand	304.78	133	97	+1
95	Moldova	308.03	137	86	- 9
94	El Salvador	308.85	64	83	- 11
93	New Caledonia	311.12	141	117	+24
92	Mali	311.53	39	94	+2
91	Kenya	311.87	126	89	- 2

Analysis

Some huge movements occurred in this set of teams over the past few weeks.

Tahiti's title in the OFC Nations Cup saw them jump 33 spots, while New Caledonia's victory over New Zealand pushed them up 24.

Meanwhile, Mali's 39th ranking in the FIFA rankings does not hold up in this system. Given the Africans' third place finishi in the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, the result is a bit perplexing.

90-61

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
90	Iceland	312.15	130	92	+2
89	Gabon	313.43	43	96	+7
88	Malawi	319.49	90	93	+5
87	Wales	319.79	37	80	- 7
86	Scotland	320.13	46	87	+1
85	Jamaica	321.23	63	95	+10
84	Georgia	323.41	97	79	- 5
83	Tanzania	324.48	128	88	+5
82	Panama	324.75	54	84	+2
81	Botswana	326.94	112	90	+9
80	Tunisia	329.88	41	85	+5
79	Syria	331.08	147	81	+2
78	Lithuania	331.51	85	75	- 3
77	Sudan	336.13	104	78	+1
76	Austria	337.18	60	72	- 4
75	Azerbaijan	338.68	108	73	- 2
74	Macedonia	338.75	102	74	-------
73	Algeria	341.95	34	77	+4
72	Bulgaria	341.99	94	71	- 1
71	Israel	343.76	82	70	- 1
70	Albania	345.91	74	68	- 2
69	Latvia	347.08	68	65	- 4
68	United Arab Emirates	347.88	121	66	- 2
67	Montenegro	352.19	50	67	-------
66	Finland	356.88	72	63	- 3
65	Bolivia	360.84	73	62	- 3
64	Costa Rica	361.95	62	55	- 9
63	Uganda	364.37	88	76	+13
62	Belarus	366.22	76	61	- 1
61	Cameroon	367.30	59	69	+8

Analysis

The biggest positive difference between the FIFA rankings and this ranking here belongs to the United Arab Emirates, who rose 53 spots. Given that they made their nation's continental cup and made the final round of qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, the UAE might be undervalued at 121.

On the flip side, Wales' ranking of 37 became 80th on this list. The ranking here makes quite a bit more sense since Wales hasn't gotten very far in any qualifying over the past four years.

Finally, Jamaica rose 10 spots on this list over the past few weeks. The Jamaicans should be some competition for USA in their World Cup qualifying group.

60-31

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
60	Oman	367.52	92	60	------
59	Nigeria	368.33	58	64	+5
58	Hungary	371.51	28	58	------
57	Romania	374.52	51	56	- 1
56	Uzbekistan	375.78	63	51	- 5
55	Estonia	376.11	49	52	- 3
54	Belgium	379.85	53	59	+5
53	Norway	384.50	25	57	+4
52	Jordan	388.70	83	50	+2
51	China	400.24	68	53	+2
50	Honduras	402.64	65	41	- 9
49	Bosnia-Herzegovina	403.25	31	48	- 1
48	Zambia	405.76	44	47	- 1
47	New Zealand	411.68	95	54	+7
46	Saudi Arabia	412.06	104	42	- 4
45	Turkey	413.82	30	43	- 2
44	Kuwait	415.09	96	46	+2
43	Qatar	415.95	98	39	- 4
42	Iraq	416.84	84	44	+2
41	Bahrain	416.85	102	38	- 3
40	South Africa	419.44	67	49	+9
39	Egypt	424.50	40	45	+6
38	Korea DPR	431.16	91	30	- 6
37	Ukraine	444.73	45	40	+3
36	Slovenia	446.66	33	35	- 1
35	Rep Ireland	448.65	26	31	- 4
34	Poland	449.71	54	37	+3
33	Ivory Coast	453.76	16	36	+3
32	Slovakia	454.82	42	32	------
31	Switzerland	455.40	23	34	+3

Analysis

This set of teams has quite a bit of disparity between these rankings and the FIFA rankings, most of which come from the Asian zone.

Saudi Arabia's 58 spot and Bahrain's 61 spot differences are huge, but they make a bit of sense considering that they both came very close to qualifying for the 2010 World Cup and appeared int he Asian Cup.

However, Korea DPR's 53 spot jump is a little less logical. The reasoning behind it is that they have played and won quite a bit of friendlies, albeit against weak teams, over the past four years. They should slide down the rankings soon.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is very high on this list, sitting at 47. That's 48 spots higher than their FIFA ranking. Yes, the Kiwis did not lose at the World Cup, but the rankings still seems a bit off.

30-21

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
30	Iran	458.13	48	23	- 7
29	USA	459.30	36	21	- 8
28	Croatia	460.52	9	29	+1
27	Ecuador	463.66	20	33	+6
26	Czech Rep	465.08	19	27	+1
25	Russia	468.18	11	28	+3
24	Peru	477.79	47	22	- 2
23	Serbia	479.42	35	25	+2
22	Sweden	479.80	17	24	+2
21	Colombia	481.43	21	26	+5

Analysis

Iran's ranking at 30 looks pretty accurate. The Iranians even have a good chance to make the World Cup and move up.

The USA's 29th ranking is also a good representation of where they sit right now. They haven't been able to get past Mexico in a Gold Cup in the past four years and couldn't get past Ghana in the Round of 16 of the World Cup.

The real discussion points in this group are definitely Croatia at 28 and Russia at 25. Both seem a bit low given their talent, but they have both underachieved over the past four years. The two nation's situations really ask a question about the whole method of ranking teams: should we base this off of potential or on-pitch performance? I leaned more towards the latter.

20-11

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
20	Ghana	494.63	32	18	- 2
19	Mexico	506.44	18	15	- 4
18	Denmark	511.38	10	20	+2
17	Greece	513.72	12	19	+2
16	Venezuela	520.93	52	17	+1
15	Australia	523.22	24	14	- 1
14	France	539.52	14	16	+2
13	South Korea	551.02	29	13	-------
12	Japan	568.70	22	10	- 2
11	England	590.38	3	12	+1

Analysis

Ghana's slot a 20 is almost undervaluing the Africans, as they have had two great Africa Cup of Nations and a deep run at a World Cup.

Mexico's future looks bright, but their performances over the past four years makes 19 an acceptable placement for them.

Denmark and Greece are next. These two nations haven't impressed too much at their major tournaments, but their ability to consistently qualify pushes them up the rankings.

Finally, England's spot at number 11 makes quite a bit more sense than their FIFA ranking.

10-6

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
10	Chile	593.03	15	11	+1
9	Italy	612.84	6	7	- 2
8	Portugal	621.88	5	9	+1
7	Paraguay	631.93	27	5	- 2
6	Argentina	632.05	7	8	+2

Analysis

Chile come in at number ten. The Chileans did well in the 2010 World Cup to make the Round of 16 and in the 2011 Copa America to make the quarterfinals, but their inability to get deeper in tournaments keeps them just around the elite nations.

Italy's run to the Euro 2012 final was fantastic, but their embarrassing showing at the 2010 World Cup pushes them down to ninth.

Portugal have only been blocked from Euro and World Cup glory by the dynasty of Spain, but poor qualifying campaigns has them at eighth.

Many talk about England's third ranking as the worst of the FIFA rankings, but Paraguay's 27th ranking is just as ridiculous. The South Americans made the quarterfinal of the 2010 World Cup and were a missed penalty away from taking control of that quarter against Spain. Meanwhile, their run at the 2011 Copa America may not have been the most exciting, but it ended with them in the final.

Argentina have all the talent a team can ask for, but their performance at major tournaments has left a bit to be desired (by their standards, at least). It is actually the Argentinean's performance in friendlies that has them as high as they are right now.

5. Brazil

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
5	Brazil	662.80	13	6	+1

Analysis

It's easy to get on Brazil for going as long as they have without a major tournament victory, but they have still been consistently deep into those tournaments.

With the Brazilians hosting the World Cup in 2014, don't be surprised if they make another deep run and challenge for the top of this list.

4. Netherlands

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
4	Netherlands	701.58	8	3	- 1

Analysis

The Dutch team had quite a debacle at Euro 2012, as they lost every match in their group.

The troubles were only compounded Wednesday, when a 4-2 loss to Belgium insured that the Netherlands lost four consecutive matches for the first time in their history.

The Dutch have still had a World Cup silver medal in the past four years, but any faltering over the next few years could see them drop quickly.

3. Germany

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
3	Germany	709.85	2	4	+1

Analysis

The Germans are the models of consistency.

Unfortunately, though, that consistency extends to their inability to get over the hump in major tournaments.

Germany still has some of the finest young talent in the world, though, so expect them to be a contender in Brazil. 

2. Uruguay

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
2	Uruguay	717.08	4	2	------

Analysis

It seems like everyone is forgetting about Uruguay.

The senior team had a shock run to the World Cup semifinals, then backed it up with the 2011 Copa America title.

Don't sleep on this side from making another deep World Cup run.

1. Spain

	Team	Points	FIFA Ranking	Last Ranking	Change
1	Spain	851.15	1	1	-------

Analysis

There's no debate on this one.

Spain's dominance in the world of football is complete at this point. If you need any more proof of this, look at the points between them and Uruguay.

Spain are far and away the best national team in football.

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