PGA Championship Picks 2012: What Experts Are Saying About Tiger, Phil, and Rory

I began my last golf article, about young stars ready to emerge at Kiawah Island, with a prologue stating that the article was indeed about golf, but not (surprisingly) about Tiger or Phil. 

This article, however, is the exact opposite. 

You know you are a star in sports when you can be referred to by only your first name: Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy have all achieved this level of success and notoriety. 

As we are now on the eve of the 2012 PGA Championship, which will tee off on Thursday morning in Kiawah Island, South Carolina; everyone is asking the same question that they ask before every golf tournament: How will the stars do? 

If the results of golf tournaments were determined by the PGA, CBS and ESPN, (conspiracy theorists need not stand up) Tiger, Phil and Rory would be atop the leaderboard in every tournament. They are the stars of the game, public figures both on and off the course, and understandably, send ratings skyrocketing like the stocks in the 80s. 

As the experts will tell you, however, these three, while popular, do not always adorn the top of the leaderboard. 

The Vegas Lines

The experts of all experts—the Vegas oddsmaker. 

Vegas has an uncanny ability to predict outcomes of sporting events. Who else could set the line in a Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints game at 13.5, only to have the game be decided by 13 points? 

Here's what Vegas is saying about golf's three "golden boys":

Tiger is the Vegas favorite, with lines of +500, meaning that a $10.00 bet will return $50.00. A respectable return on what many are calling a sure bet. 

Rory is the second-favorite in the field at +1000. A $10.00 bet here will return $100.00. I may find a (legal) way to bet on Rory, because he is my personal pick to win the tournament this year.

Phil, on the other hand, is more of a longshot to win. His odds to win are better than last place Darren Clarke, (+30000) but they are still nowhere near the top. Phil is going off at +4000. A $10.00 bet will return $400.00. If you are willing to roll the dice, a bet on Lefty could result in a nice pay day. 

Phil Mickelson

There's not much talk online about Phil Mickelson ahead of this weekend's tournament. Since contending in this year's Masters, Phil has been having a miserable 2012.

His game has been out of wack, his risks have not been paying off and he's been sloppy as anything on the greens. Phil's performance at the U.S. Open was atrocious this year, and his performance at the Open Championship was even worse; he got cut. 

No one is predicting too strong of a showing from Phil, and should he contend with the field, everyone will be pleasantly surprised. Many have suspected that Phil may be fighting off an injury; he denies these reports. 

One B/R columnist did put together a strong and convincing article on why Phil will contend at Kiawah Island. One reason? He loves low expectations. 

Gary Van Sickle of Sports Illustrated, however, does not have high hopes for Phil. 

"

Like everyone else, Mickelson knows this is the last chance to do something important this year. Mickelson, however, has struggled with his game. He just doesn’t look like he feels 100 percent healthy, and he probably isn’t. He doesn’t use his arthritis as an excuse, but it seems reasonable that, at 42 , it’s much tougher for him to feel well for extended periods of time. That said, he’s made a career out of playing well when least expected.

"

The Bottom Line

No one expects Phil to win. He seems shaken up both physically and mentally, and it is clear that he is not on the top of his game. It's okay though, because Phil just bought the San Diego Padres. 

Rory McIlroy

Rory is the No. 3 ranked player in the world, and many are expecting a strong showing for him at the PGA Championship. He's currently going off at +1000, or 10 to 1, in Vegas. Here's what some of the experts are saying around the web. 

Gary Van Sickle, Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated

"

Yeah, sure, Northern Ireland’s boy wonder has been off his game all summer, possibly distracted by the trappings of fame. But McIlroy excels at American-style golf. His U.S. Open win was on a Congressional course with soft fairways and soft greens. He hits it long and high, so he’s not a big fan of windy conditions. This is the year’s final major, so McIlroy knows he can turn an otherwise so-so year into a great one with a victory. He’s been working harder since his mid-summer lapse. The focus may return.

"

John Swantek, PGATour.com

"

Recovered from a poor start at Firestone South and was there for a sniff on Sunday. He was near the top in key iron play and putting stats, and certainly has the extra gear off the tee to handle a long, wet track at Kiawah Island.

"

Jonathan Wall, Yahoo.com

"

McIlroy was asked on Saturday following a third-round 67 when the last time was he felt this good. His answer? "Not for a while, probably going into Quail Hollow." That was back in May. In other words, it had been a while. Even though he didn't exactly set the world on fire this week at Firestone, McIlroy put together four solid rounds of golf, finishing inside the top-5 for the first time since the Wells Fargo Championship. He also finished 2nd in the field in driving distance and greens in regulation, two stats that could come in handy at Kiawah.

"

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com

"

Last week, the Northern Irishman started the WGC-Bridgestone 3-over after four holes, but rebounded nicely for a T-5 finish. Expect the world No. 3 to enjoy the links-like layout of Kiawah Island, especially if he's raising his second major championship trophy in as many years.

"

The Bottom Line

Rory has had a respectable 2012, yet his showing in majors has been poor. He's made four top 10s in his last nine starts, yet he has also missed four cuts in that time. He has a strong showing last week in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, and many feel that it's Rory's time to prove to folks that he can be a star in golf for years to come by winning his second major. Expectations are high. 

Tiger Woods

Tiger is the No. 2 ranked player in the world and is currently leading the FedEx Cup Standings. His 2012 has been incredible, a comeback year of sorts for the swinger who has gone through hell and back over the last three years. He is the unanimous favorite to win this year's PGA Championship. With the year he's had, this is no surprise. 

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com

"

In 2012, the 14-time major winner hasn't played great on the weekends at the majors, but this might be his time to finally get his first major in four years. All he has to do is get out to a fast start and hang on until the end. He's proven that he's a far better frontrunner than a chaser.

"

Justin Ray, ESPN.com

"

This might not be the week to wager on Woods. It's impossible to count him out of a major championship before it begins, but he has a couple of things stacked against him at Kiawah this week. For one, he hasn't had a great amount of success in recent years on Pete Dye courses. Woods has one top-10 at TPC Sawgrass since 2002 and finished tied for 28th at Whistling Straits two years ago. Second, Tiger is admittedly unfamiliar with Paspalum grass, which is what makes up most of The Ocean Course. Tiger's green-reading problems have been well-documented recently (he was 56th in strokes gained-putting last week at Firestone), and it's difficult to believe that will improve on an unfamiliar putting surface.

"

Mike McAllister, PGATour.com

"

In two previous majors on Pete Dye-designed courses, Tiger has finished T28 (2010 PGA) and T24 (2004 PGA) and has never shot lower than 69. Why should this week be any different? I'm subscribing to the when-you-least-expect-it theory.

"

Gary Van Sickle, Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated

"

You never rule out a 14-time major winner, and the wide fairways may make his unreliable driver more of a weapon than it’s been for a while. But still. Though he keeps showing signs of scoring better, there are disturbing signs that his progress isn’t as good as it appears. His short-iron play has been far below his former standards, and his putting has been less than stellar. If you saw him miss that two-footer on the final green Thursday in Akron, you’re still wondering what went wrong. His stance and setup were aimed left, but his stroke path went right. That indicates he’s still searching for the answer to his putting woes and still experimenting.

"

Bill Cooney, Anne Szeker, Amanda Balionis, John Swantek and Lauren Deason of PGATour.com all have picked Tiger as their projected winner. 

The Bottom Line

Tiger is on the fast track to being not only the comeback player of 2012, but the overall player of 2012, and the winner of the FedEx Cup. He's playing completely in his element, and a win at this weekend's PGA Championship would put him one step closer to tying Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 major victories. A win for Tiger is far from a longshot; it's almost expected.