Nebraska Football: Does USA Today's Preseason Poll Alter the Huskers' BCS Path?

Preseason polls shouldn't matter. Preseason polls are based on guesswork, on name recognition and on blind speculation. They shouldn't have any bearing on what happens at the end of the season.

But they do.

Where a team finishes a season can be affected by where it started in the preseason poll. Too low a start will stop a team from finishing high enough to make a big-time bowl, regardless of how good a season it has.

So let's take a look at the newly-released USA Today preseason poll, and see what it means for Nebraska.

Nebraska Has a Safe Launching Pad

Nebraska starts the season rated 16th in the USA Today preseason poll.

While Nebraska clearly isn't viewed as a strong national title contender, a 16th-place start gives Nebraska plenty of room to move up the standings should the season go very well. Also, 16th place gives Nebraska a little bit of a cushion in case NU drops a game early (say at UCLA) to not fall out of the rankings altogether.

Strength of Schedule Won't Be a Problem, but ...

Nebraska has three opponents ranked in the top 13 in the USA Today preseason poll: Michigan at No. 7, Wisconsin at No. 12, and Michigan State at No. 13.

And remember, Ohio State and Penn State aren't eligible to be included in this year's poll, so NU's strength of schedule is actually stronger than the poll would indicate.
While strength of schedule isn't quite as important as is will be in two years when the playoff model starts, having those three highly-ranked teams will help Nebraska's perception as playing a solid schedule.

... Strength of Schedule Also Won't Be a Big Help

Unfortunately, after the big four, Nebraska's schedule doesn't get a lot of help. None of Nebraska's other opponents make the top 25. Only one (Southern Mississippi at 40th) even makes the Also Receiving Votes list.

Again, with Ohio State and Penn State ineligible to be ranked, the strength of schedule may be a little stronger than the poll would indicate. But, still, from looking at the preseason poll, no one will see Nebraska as having an overly-challenging schedule.

Home Is Where the Heart Is

Of Nebraska's three games against teams in the preseason top 25, two (Michigan and Wisconsin) are at home. Obviously, if a team must face challenging and highly-rated opponents, it would be much better to have those opponents at home rather than on the road.

Nebraska's road trips to Madison and Ann Arbor last year didn't go well for NU. If Nebraska can take care of business at home, its chances for a BCS berth increase dramatically.

Conclusion

The USA Today preseason poll didn't really present much in the way of surprises for Nebraska. NU ended up about where it was expected to be in the preseason poll (arguably a little higher than expected, but at least in the neighborhood) and all of Nebraska's opponents ended up about where they were expected to be.

Nebraska's BCS path, therefore, is right about where it was thought to be before the poll came out. For NU to have a realistic chance at a BCS bowl, it will have to go 2-1 against the three teams ranked above it in the poll and avoid the embarrassing upset that has plagued the Huskers the previous three years. 

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