Breaking Down Each NFL Team's Worst-Case Scenario

The beauty of the NFL is that every season, almost every team has a chance to contend. The hope of a new season, a clean slate and a fresh start in one of the most competitive sports leagues on Earth never fails to excite fans.

It's the worm on the hook, the bait that keeps us swimming behind our favorite teams. No matter how many times we've felt the sting of defeat, a big-name free agent, a captivating rookie or a coaching guru saunters into town and convinces us this year could be the year.

The nature of the NFL offseason means there's almost nothing but good news. The NFL draft is nothing but new talent coming in the door. Every OTA, minicamp and training camp generates mountains of press gushing over how players look leaner, meatier, faster, stronger, more aggressive, more relaxed, smarter and better looking in shorts.

In the offseason, there's no opponent. There's no adversity. There's almost nothing to interrupt the positive feedback loop of the hopeful fan and their franchise.

But every once in a while, it all comes crashing down.

Without warning, everything that was supposed to go right goes wrong. Everything that was supposed to last falls apart. A St. Louis Rams team that had a stud rookie quarterback and defensive genius at the helm at the beginning of 2011 has a big fat question mark under center and a different head coach today.

What's the worst-case scenario, realistically speaking, for every NFL team in 2012?

We'll look at trends over the past two years, including a stat called "Pythagorean Wins," explained here by Doug Driner of Pro-Football-Reference.com. It's a measure of team strength that strongly correlates with how well a team does the following year.

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals improved from 2010 to 2011 from 5-11 to 8-8. But despite the defense allowing one fewer touchdown per game, they still finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring offense (24th), scoring defense (17th) and a miserable minus-13 (28th) in turnover differential.

The Cardinals were very lucky to play in a weak division. Even accounting for that strength of schedule, though, the Cardinals were fortunate to end up with eight wins; they had 7.0 Pythagorean wins.

Even with significant improvement in the well-below-par offense, the Cardinals may not get back to 8-8.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Quarterback Kevin Kolb fails to improve, rookie WR Michael Floyd doesn't make the offense much better, and/or the defense can't match its 2011 production. 4-12.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons went 10-6 in 2011 from 13-3 in 2012. The Falcons regressed from being ranked fifth in the NFL in both offense and defense to seventh and 18th, respectively. They had 9.3 Pythagorean wins, so they finished right about where they ought to have.

This is, fundamentally, a very stable team. They're built around a steady running game and a steady quarterback, and they protect the football (plus-eight, ranked fifth).

What's the worst-case scenario?

Michael Turner finally runs the tread off his tires, and the aging defense can't make up for the season-ending injury to key free-agent acquisition Lofa Tatupu. 8-8.

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have finished 12-4 each of the past two seasons, and in both seasons their storied defense finished third in the NFL in scoring. The offense improved by 1.3 points per game and in the rankings from 16th to 12th.

The Ravens' roster has been incredibly consistent. The biggest loss may be DE Cory Redding, but Pernell McPhee and Arthur Jones should be no less productive in relief.

With 10.6 and 11.2 Pythagorean wins respectively in the last two seasons, the Ravens have been slightly fortunate to rack up 24 actual wins. But even if the cookie crumbles as poorly as possible, the Ravens won't take too far a step back.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Ray Lewis won't last forever and will likely begin regressing in a noticeable way this season. But unless quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Ray Rice and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata all tear their ACLs trying to replicate Lewis' pregame dance, the Ravens won't be worse than 9-7.

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills were the feel-good story of 2011 until they stopped feeling so good. After a feverish 5-2 start, they finished with a nauseating 1-8 streak.

Still, 6-10 was a two-game improvement over 2010's 4-12 mark, and their offense improved almost a full touchdown from a 28th-ranked 17.7 points per game to 23.2. The defense, however, regressed from 28th to 30th.

The Bills have won in lockstep with their Pythagorean wins, so a major regression to the mean shouldn't be expected. By adding monster defensive end Mario Williams, plus a 10-pick draft class featuring cornerback Stephon Gilmore, the defense should be much improved without any offensive falloff.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Even if we take the 1-8 Bills as "the real 2012 Bills," the defense will definitely take a big step forward (barring injury to DE Mario Williams or DT Kyle Williams). Even with a rash of key injuries, this team shouldn't finish much worse than they in 2011. 5-11.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers might be one of the trickiest teams to evaluate. With a coaching change and quarterback change, the 2011 Panthers went 6-10 for a four-win improvement over the prior year.

The story of that improvement, of course, is quarterback Cam Newton, whose ridiculous rookie numbers fueled an absolutely unbelievable offensive jump from a league-worst 12.2 points per game to a fifth-ranked 25.4.

The defense gave up over a full point more per game, but when you're scoring an average of two more touchdowns in every single game, who cares?

The great news for Panther fans is, this jump (leap? rocket launch) into offensive orbit still saw the Panthers fall well short of their Pythagorean win mark of 7.5. This implies that the Panthers were unlucky not to do better.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Newton will likely regress statistically as he plays more traditionally and defenses digest the tape he put out last season. Even so, barring a catastrophic injury to Newton, the Panthers couldn't possibly win fewer games than last season, could they? 6-10.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears experienced the worst-case scenario last season, when they lost multidimensional workhorse back Matt Forte and franchise quarterback Jay Cutler in quick succession. After starting out 7-3, they had to suffer a brutal 1-5 stretch run.

Even so, the Bears improved the per-game scoring offense from 2010 to 2011. The temptation is to project the Bears for a huge number of wins, but the division they play in isn't getting any easier and the defense is almost at the end of its shelf life.

What's the worst-case scenario?

The Bears will certainly bounce back from their unfortunate 2011 fate, but is the influx of talent going to make up for the talent rapidly aging? Yes. Despite the brutal schedule, the Bears will be going at least 9-7.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals shocked by improving from 4-12 in 2010 to 9-7 in 2011. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green took the NFL by storm, boosting the offense to 18th out of 32 in the NFL from 21st the season before.

But the real story was the massive improvement in the defense: The Bengals went from allowing 24.7 points per game to 20.2, and from being ranked 24th in the NFL to ninth.

What's the worst-case scenario?

The Bengals are going to need their no-name defense to keep producing and their passing attack to keep progressing if they're going to keep above .500 in the AFC North. 7-9.

Cleveland Browns

Here's how bad the Browns' luck has been lately: Despite the scoring defense improving from the 13th-best in 2010 to fifth-best in 2011, they won one fewer game in 2011 (four) than 2010!

With 4.9 Pythagorean wins in 2011, they were a little unlucky to do that poorly. But they're still mired in a wicked division, and rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden isn't going to make up for their many offensive shortcomings.

What's the worst-case scenario?

The defense fails to match its 2011 effort, and the offense doesn't improve. 3-13.

Dallas Cowboys

The 2010 Dallas Cowboys finished 6-10, despite having 7.0 Pythagorean wins. That pointed toward an improvement in 2011, and that's exactly what happened: the Cowboys went 8-8 in 2011.

The 2011 defense allowed almost a full touchdown less than the 2010 edition, which is fantastic. But that was slightly offset by the offense falling off its prior pace by 1.5 points. With 8.6 Pythagorean wins, the Cowboys should expect to do a little better in 2012, even if nothing changes.

But the Cowboys also fed their defense heavily, with all of their first four picks going to address need areas on the defensive side of the ball.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Tony Romo finally just implodes once and for all, and a key defender like DeMarcus Ware can't produce like he used to (or at all). 7-9.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are another team almost impossible to pigeon-hole. With head coach John Fox luring Peyton Manning to town, the run-first/pass-when-you-have-to mindset with Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee will almost certainly change.

Nevertheless, the Broncos backed into the playoffs last season. They did so despite ranking 25th in scoring offense, 24th in scoring defense and 26th in turnover margin. They had just 5.8 Pythagorean wins, suggesting there was a massive amount of luck that broke their way.

All this would point toward a big regression, but the addition of Peyton Manning changes everything. If he's half the player he used to be, the Broncos pick up right where they left off, winning more games than they lose and making the playoffs.. If he isn't, it'll be status quo.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Peyton doesn't play like Peyton in camp, and the riptide of regression to the mean pulls the Broncos under .500 before they can emerge. 5-11.

Detroit Lions

The 2011 Detroit Lions improved four wins from 2010, just as they'd improved four wins from 2009 to 2010.

That pace seems unsustainable this year, as their offense has almost no way to keep building on the fourth-best 447 points per game it mustered. Quarterback Matthew Stafford rewrote record books, throwing for 5,038 yards and 41 TDs.

Still, there's plenty of room to improve on the 23rd-ranked defense, which surrendered points at a 24.2-per-game clip.

The 2011 Lions had 9.9 Pythagorean wins, right in line with their real "W" tally. GM Martin Mayhew retained 21 of the 22 starters that did so well for Detroit, but the missing one was in a position of real need.

What's the worst-case scenario?

The Lions have an excellent backup QB in Shaun Hill, but let's not play around: they need Stafford to put in another 16 excellent games if they're to get back to the playoffs. They treaded water, personnel-wise, and are playing in a brutal division. 8-8.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are due for a fall to win-total Earth. They racked up a preposterous 35.0 points per game, but their defense fell off precipitously from the second-best scoring defense of 2010 to the 19th-ranked unit of 2011.

Their Pythagorean win total was just 11.9, meaning the Packers caught quite a few bounces indeed to end up with 15 real wins. There should be a very, very powerful undertow of regression this season, pulling the Pack back to the mean.

What's the worst-case scenario?

The Bears and Lions aren't going to leave the NFC North between now and the beginning of the season. The Packers have serious holes in the defense, and they'll be relying on rookies to fill some of them. Still, as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, this is a winning football team. 9-7.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans had an incredible season last year when all the potential finally clicked and they caught every break and they won more than three times as many games as they lost.

They also had a horrific season last year, when they lost their starting quarterback and looked completely lost without him.

Though the 2011 season proved the Texans have no recourse if Matt Schaub cannot be Matt Schaub for them, their 10.6 Pythagorean wins also proved they haven't maxed out their upside. This team is too talented, and performing too well, to slip very far.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Andre Johnson or Matt Schaub again can't make it through the year; that's pretty much the only realistic way this team doesn't win at least 10 games this year. Even then, 9-7.

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts were 2-14 last season, ranked 28th in scoring offense, 28th in scoring defense, 30th in scoring differential and 26th in turnover margin. There is very, very little reason to believe this team can get significantly better in one offseason.

Well, there is one reason: No. 1 overall draft pick Andrew Luck.

How much of an improvement he is over the Unholy Trinity of Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins will determine how much the Colts improve.

What's the worst-case scenario?

If Luck needs time to adjust to the NFL and can't make the players around him significantly better...1-15.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are another interesting nut to crack. With a new head coach and a second-year quarterback, the 5-11 record the 2011 Jaguars managed could either be a low bar the 2012 team easily jumps over...

Or, the full-touchdown improvement in the scoring defense from 2009 to 2010 was a fluke, and they'll be significantly worse in 2012.

The Jags had 5.2 Pythagorean wins in 2011, meaning they achieved exactly in line with their "true level."

What's the worst-case scenario?

The Jacksonville defense is too good to keep the Jags from regressing any farther.

If the new coaching staff hits the ground running and Blaine Gabbert makes real strides, the Jaguars become contenders overnight. However, if the new coaches need time to shape the roster in their image and Gabbert keeps being Gabbert, all the defense in the world won't make up for a total lack of passing offense. 4-12.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs enjoyed a shock 10-6 season in 2010. They were strong and balanced, with a 14th-ranked scoring offense and 11th-ranked defense, as well as a fifth-best plus-nine turnover ratio.

But in 2011, they followed it up with a shock 7-9 season. The injuries to running back Jamaal Charles, as well as various nicks and bumps to the Chiefs' quarterbacks, doomed the offense to wallow in awfulness. Scoring an average of just 13.2 points per game, the Chiefs had the second-worst offense in the NFL. The defense was still a respectable 12th-best.

Incredibly, they had just 4.0 Pythagorean wins, meaning the Chiefs managed to win three more games than their scoring differential would predict. Even if Charles comes back as his old self and free-agent signing Peyton Hillis comes back as his old self, and the Chiefs rally back to their 2010 form, Old Man Regression is going to want his pound of flesh.

What's the worst case scenario?

If none of those things happen, it will get ugly fast. 5-11.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have painted themselves into a corner this offseason.

They were 6-10, with 8.5 Pythagorean wins, in 2011; the ball should bounce their way a little more in 2012.

But with a new coach, two new quarterbacks, a meddling owner and a series of questionable personnel decisions, the Dolphins are going to need more than luck to win ballgames.

What's the worst-case scenario?

At this point, it's almost impossible to rule anything out. It's easy to envision management (or ownership) force Ryan Tannehill into the starting role before he's ready. 3-13.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings, from all appearances, are in the middle of an extremely difficult rebuilding project and doing an excellent job with less-than-plentiful resources. Unfortunately, they play in the same division as the Packers, Bears and Lions.

Last season, the 3-13 Vikings had 5.5 Pythagorean wins. Even if the Vikings get all that luck back this season, they're going to be lucky to win six games. If they don't, and/or Christian Ponder doesn't take a big step forward and/or Adrian Peterson's ACL isn't 100 percent by Week 1, even that looks like a pipe dream.

What's the worst-case scenario?

A team with some talented players gets steamrolled. Actually, that's probably the best-case scenario too. 3-13.

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots haven't had fewer than 10 wins since 2002.

What's the worst-case scenario?

10-6.

New Orleans Saints

There's no team with a wider spread of possibility than the New Orleans Saints. On one hand, they've seemed to achieve a double-digit win Nirvana with Drew Brees at the helm, and they've put together the scariest running back by committee since the 2003 Vikings.

From 2010 to 2011, the Saints improved their scoring offense by a walloping 10 points per game to 34.3, second only to the high-flying Packers. The defense was solid, too, allowing just 21.2 (slotting the Saints atop the NFL in points differential).

The question is, how will the offense run without Sean Payton there to run it? And can deposed former Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo heal the much-maligned defense?

What's the worst-case scenario?

With a chain of interim head coaches-to-be, it's entirely possible the bottom could fall out underneath the Saints, relatively speaking. 6-10.

New York Giants

The New York Giants just won the Super Bowl.

With only 7.9 Pythagorean wins, they scored an average of 24.6 points per game and allowed 25.

2011 was the season that Eli Manning proved once and for all that he is an elite quarterback capable of making great decisions and playing obviously excellent football on a day-in, day-out basis and in the highest moments of tension.

However, 2012 is going to be the season that reminds us nobody dodges the Variance Reaper for too long. The Giants could very well play better football this season, yet win fewer games and miss the playoffs.

What's the worst-case scenario?

When you have a quarterback playing as well as Manning is right now, 8-8 is the bare minimum.

New York Jets

The New York Jets again fell shy of the Super Bowl in 2011, this time very shy. Their 8-8 record wasn't bad luck or stiff competition or anything but a spot-on reflection of the Jets' scoring differential.

In three years under Rex Ryan, the Jets' defense has allowed 14.8, 19.0 and 22.7 points, respectively. Those figures put them at first, sixth and 20th in the NFL. Meanwhile, they've scored 21.8, 22.9 and 23.7 points per game (ranked 17th, 13th and 13th).

What's the lesson here? That the Jets' defense is already a shadow of its 2009 self, and unless Tim Tebow can play linebacker, that's only going to get worse.

What's the worst-case scenario?

That the aging defense continues to age, and Mark Sanchez and the offense continue to be the same every year. 6-10.

Oakland Raiders

The good news is the Oakland Raiders finished tied for their division championship last season. The bad news is so did two other .500 teams.

The Raiders had the median offense in 2011, scoring a perfectly fine 22.4 points per game. But the scoring defense allowed a massive 27.1 points per game to rank 29th. Getting outscored by 4.6 points per game earns you a measly 6.3 Pythagorean wins; the Raiders were actually fortunate to end up with an 8-8 record.

In recent seasons, the Raiders have been known for a quality pass defense, but that's just not the case anymore. With most of their top 2011 picks traded away, only fourth-round linebacker Miles Burris could even possibly help shore it up.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Disaster seems to strike for the Raiders in spectacular ways; putting no floor at all could be tempting. But there's still enough talent on the field to make sure this team is no worse than 5-11 in the weakest division in football.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have been so consistently "almost" for so long, the punchlines wore themselves out years ago. From 2010 to 2011, the Eagles dropped two real wins (from 10-6 to 8-8), but actually increased their Pythagorean wins from 9.4 to 9.8.

The Eagles scored, on average, a field goal less per game (from a third-best 27.4 points per game to eighth-best 24.8). But they improved defensively more than they slipped offensively, from a 21st-ranked 23.6 points per game to a 10th-best 20.5.

As the Eagles spent their first three picks on defense and their first offensive pick on a project quarterback, that trend is likely to hold, if not continue, as the Eagles should be as "almost" as ever.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Unless the Eagles' flakier offensive players (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson) go completely off the rails, 8-8 is as poor as they're likely to be. The best-case scenario, though, isn't more than a few wins better.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the No. 1 scoring defense for two years in a row, come within 0.8 of 12 Pythagorean wins for two years in a row and 12 real wins for two years in a row.

The offense scored about 23 points per game in 2009 and 2010 and was ranked 12th in the NFL in both seasons. 2011 saw that points figure slip to 20.3 and their ranking fall all the way to 21st. But the defense stiffened up, allowing just 14.2 points per game, better than any other unit in the NFL.

The Steelers wisely chose to address their offensive line with their top two picks, adding OG David DeCastro and OT Mike Adams. This is an extremely well-run franchise, and it shows in the way they maintain their consistent success.

The only real wild card is the ongoing contract drama with playmaking wideout Mike Wallace.

What's the worst-case scenario?  

Barring a Roethlisberger legal issue that actually results in incarceration, the 2012 Steelers should finish no lower than 10-6.

San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers have perennially boasted one of the most talented offenses in the NFL. How that talent has manifested itself on the field, though, has always varied wildly.

The 2011 edition of the Chargers is no exception: they boasted the fifth-most prolific offense in the NFL, but needed four wins in their last five games to claw their way to 8-8 in the woebegone AFC West. In 2010, that offense was even scarier: it put up 27.6 points per game, second best in the NFL.

The big difference in the two seasons was the defense. In 2010, the Chargers' scoring defense was a top-10 unit, if barely. In 2011, it was ranked 22nd, allowing over a field goal more per game.

The Chargers widely chose to restock the defensive side of the ball in the draft and free agency. Until they can widen the scoring gap between themselves and their opponents, they'll continue to be around .500.

What's the worst-case scenario?

We very nearly saw it in 2010, when the Chargers started 4-7. The defensive rookies, like Melvin Ingram, should help, but there's still an awful lot of that team in this team. 7-9.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers completed a phenomenal turnaround, going from 6-10 and directionless to 13-3 and within a game of the Super Bowl. You might expect such a dramatic reversal of fortune to be driven by luck, but in this case you'd be wrong.

The 2011 49ers not only had the second-best scoring defense in football, at 14.3 average points allowed per game, they also had the 11th-best scoring offense in football with an average of 23.8 points scored per game.

That fourth-best points differential earned them 12.3 Pythagorean wins, meaning the 13-3 mark was no accident. It's difficult to believe that essentially the same roster will run back out there and dominate the NFL the same way twice, but I can't ding the 49ers for standing pat with a roster that got to the NFC Championship Game.

What's the worst-case scenario?

No worse than 10-6 under any circumstances, and that's even with the 49ers trying to figure out how to get their college football divisions unrealigned.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks were the great untold story of 2011. With a cobbled-together receiver corps and profoundly inadequate quarterback play, the 'Hawks went 7-9 on the back of running back Marshawn Lynch and the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL.

In fact, the Seahawks' scoring differential was such that they earned 8.2 Pythagorean wins; they were even better than their 7-9 record.

Now that the 'Hawks have added Matt Flynn and rookie Russell Wilson to the quarterback corps, all the signs are pointing strongly to a big uptick in 2012.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Neither Flynn or Wilson is any better than Whitehurst or Jackson were, and the Seahawks go 7-9 again.

St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams were the poster children for the worst-case scenario last season and retooled their franchise as a result.

With the worst offense in the NFL and seventh-worst defense in the NFL, the Rams earned every bit of their 2-14 record with 2.3 Pythagorean wins.

What's the worst-case scenario?

It's hard to imagine that new head coach Jeff Fisher makes anything worse, but unless quarterback Sam Bradford completely recovers his rookie form under his third offensive coordinator in three seasons, a repeat of 2-14 isn't out of the question.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another great example of the worst-case scenario in action.

Following a surprise 10-6 season 2010 when they only had 8.7 Pythagorean wins, their defense dropped to dead last in the NFL, allowing an average of 10 more points per game than in 2010. The Bucs crashed all the way down to 4-12, and the last of the House of Dungy Tampa 2 coaching dynasty was shown the door.

The Bucs still have some nice young players on both sides of the ball, and the complete scheme change will buy first-time head coach Greg Schiano some time.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Schiano completely falling flat on his face, looking completely out of his depth, going 1-15 and forcing the Bucs to make a panic fire-and-hire for the fourth time in four years.

Tennessee Titans

For the first time in forever, Jeff Fisher did not coach the Tennessee Titans. The results were surprising: they improved from 6-10 to 9-7.

Fisher's 2010 Titans were a very balanced team, right in the middle of the pack, and worth 8.5 Pythagorean wins. Mike Munchak's 2011 Titans were a little worse on offense, averaging two fewer points per game and ranked 21st. The 2011 unit was much improved on defense: they were ranked eighth in the NFL, allowing just 19.8 points per game.

Interestingly, that's only good for 8.2 Pythagorean wins.

Now Munchak has a decision to make: roll with long-in-the-tooth quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, knowing he'll likely represent the best chance to win on a team that doesn't have much chance to win much? Or install second-year man Jake Locker and hope the future is now quicker than anyone thought?

What's the worst-case scenario?

Munchak names Locker the starter, and Locker is a disaster. This ruins both the season, and potentially Locker's career.

Washington Redskins

It's almost impossible to construct a worst-case scenario for the Washington Redskins.

They have a near-legendary head coach just starting to work with an otherworldly rookie quarterback. Even if the Redskins went 0-16 this year (they won't), it's hard to imagine Shanahan and Robert Griffin III not getting at least one more season together.

What's the worst-case scenario?

Shanahan starts RG3 from day one, then pulls him for Rex Grossman or Kirk Cousins whenever he struggles. Shanahan has to protect and develop RG3 above all else.