National's Spring Training Tidbits

It's been more than a week since I posted an article, but I have an excuse.

Bleacher Report ate my stories.

Really.

Three times I wrote a story and three times I pushed some button—if I knew which one I wouldn't have kept doing it—and the stories just went phoof.

It says that my drafts were saved, but I'll be darned if I can figure out how to access them.

So I'll play catch-up and cover a few stories that made news the past week.

Unless, of course, Bleacher Report gobbles up my prose yet again.

Smiley Gonzalez isn't who he says he is: I'm shocked, shocked that there's gambling going on!

For those of you under 50, that's a very famous line from the movie "Casablanca."

Seriously, is anyone really shocked that adults who can't get enough to eat would pimp out young adults as teenagers in order for both of them to survive?

We all thought that Smiley Gonzalez (a.k.a. Carlos Lugo) was the real deal, at least based on his superb performance with the Gulf Coast League Nationals this past season. Now, we find out he was a 23-year old facing 18-year old pitchers.

I can't believe that everyone is making this into a life-and-death situation, especially team president Stan Kasten. It was under his watch, after all, that the last lying Dominican came to light.

The months that followed 9/11 brought added scrutiny to Latin baseball players trying to re-enter the United States for the 2002 season. A closer examination of Rafael Furcal's documentation found him to be 23, two years older than he claimed.

He went on to have a fine major league career.

So Gonzalez/Lugo isn't a fuzzy-cheeked kid like we all thought.

Big deal.

Push him through the minor leagues this year and make sure he ends the year playing against players his own age. Maybe that'll be Potomac. Maybe Harrisburg.

Either way, the Nationals will know in just a few months if he's still a true prospect.

And if the team is really concerned, they can use one of their picks in the June amateur draft to garner another shortstop.

But, please, check his birth certificate. Okay?

Where fore art thou, Odalis Perez? At first, I was stunned by his agreeing to a minor-league contract and then refusing to report unless the Nationals, paraphrasing here, showed him some love.

But a little research into his past indicates that he's prone to these type of brain-farts.

While with the Orioles a few years ago, he stopped buying tickets to Orioles games for inner-city kids because he was taken out of the starting rotation.

Once back in the rotation, however, he refused to continue his charity work, telling the press that he didn't get enough credit for doing it.

Jerk.

Today (Sunday) is the day all players involved in the WBC must report, and all indications are that  he's still at home pouting.

So even if he chooses to report at some point, I doubt he'd be welcome, by either the Nationals' players, the front office, or the fans.

Shawn Hill Feels Good:Of all the scenarios coming out of Viera this spring, this one could have the most impact.

Simply put, if Shawn Hill is healthy—something he hasn't been since 2005—the Nationals should have a solid season.

Since his Tommy John surgery in 2005, Hill hasn't gotten through a full season healthy. Since then, he has really only been 100% in the first part of 2007, when he went 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in six starts.

If Hill is healthy, he wins a spot in the rotation, and the Nationals, with a rotation of Hill, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, and Colin Balester, are a team capable of ending the season above .500.

Watch him during spring training. As Hill goes, so go the Nationals.

What if department—Gustavo Chacin: So, it's July and one of the Nationals' starters goes down with an injury. Who might replace him?

Don't be surprised if it's Gustavo Chacin.

Chacin went 18-2 with a 2.35 ERA in the minors in 2004, splitting time between Toronto's 'AA' and 'AAA' affiliates. He was almost as good with the Blue Jays the next season, going 13-9 with a 3.72 ERA in 34 starts. He was American League "Rookie of the Month" twice and finished fourth in "Rookie of the Year" voting.

However, elbow injuries in 2007 and 2008 derailed his career. He pitched in only five games in '07, and his comeback last year lasted just 11 games for Class 'A' Dunedin, where he went 1-7, 7.63.

His scouting report is promising: "Working primarily with a low-90's fastball and change-up, he's really tough on left-handed hitters. His quirky motion gets right-handed bats out, too" (from TSN.com).

They describe him as a "solid mid-rotation starter."

If healthy, he's a great signing. At 28, he's still young, and he's a lefty who excels against left-handed batters (.225/.289/.320). And with less than 1,000 career innings pitched (majors and minors combined), his arm is fresh.

Taking a chance on Chacin reminds me of the January 2007 signing of former Reds' pitcher Brandon Claussen, who developed arm trouble after a successful season in Cincinnati.

He never came back from his injuries. Maybe Chacin will.

Ryan Zimmerman is serious this year: Though I have always been a Ryan Zimmerman fan, I have been concerned as to how he took care of himself. Though never fat, he's always looked pudgy and round-faced. Could his lack of conditioning have been a part of his injury-plagued season in 2008?

It's very possible.

This year, however, Zimmerman has a totally new look. Gone are the puffy cheeks and soft belly. His facial features now seem chiseled and he finally looks like the young athlete that he is.

If he continues to take pride in his conditioning throughout the year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish the year at .300-30-100 or thereabouts.

And Zimmerman isn't the only player in camp with a new, svelte look.

Ronnie Belliard has dropped a great deal of weight and also looks like a completely new player. I am a big fan and have always believed that he deserves to be the team's starting second baseman.

Dmitri Young has also lost a great deal of weight and may have finally gotten his diabetes under control. However, with Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart, I don't see him playing for the Nationals this year.

It would make sense for him to play at 'AAA' Syracuse as an insurance policy for the big club, but Bill Rhinehart, who went from Hagerstown to Potomac to Harrisburg in just a couple of months last season, will be the everyday first baseman for the Chiefs.

Young may be released before the start of the season.