UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson Preview

Once again, the UFC crosses the Atlantic and returns to London, England, for UFC 95.  The main event features Joe Stevenson vs. Diego Sanchez.


Main Card: Joe Stevenson vs. Diego Sanchez

The UFC throws a rare lightweight main event at us for UFC 95 and the matchup between Joe Stevenson and Diego Sanchez is very intriguing.

Both fighters started their UFC careers in the welterweight division, but both are now fighting in the lightweight division. Stevenson made the transition back at UFC 61, while this will be Sanchez’s first foray into the lightweight waters.

Will the initial weight cut to 155 lbs. make a big difference for Sanchez in this fight? It really is hard to say, but I think Diego is a more natural fit at lightweight and don’t believe he really will be shedding all that much extra weight anyway.

Sanchez began his career winning his first 17 fights from 2002 until 2006. However, 2007 was not a good year for Sanchez as he suffered not only his first defeat but back-to-back losses against Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, respectively.

Since those losses, Sanchez has bounced back with two strong performances and now looks to take on new challenges at lightweight.

After losing to Josh Neer at UFC Fight Night 4, Stevenson made the drop to lightweight and took the division by storm winning his first four fights and earning a title shot against BJ Penn at UFC 80.

Unfortunately for “Joe Daddy,” Penn easily dominated that fight and dispatched Stevenson via submission in the second round. Stevenson suffered another submission loss in his last fight, this time against Kenny Florian at UFC 91 this past November.

For whatever reason, Stevenson has been very inconsistent in his fights and has fallen prey to submission on the ground. It seems that unless Stevenson is able to land his guillotine choke early in the fight, he doesn’t stand much of a chance against top-level opponents.

I expect Sanchez to come out like a man possessed in this fight and explode onto Stevenson right out of the gate.

Winner: Diego Sanchez


Rory Markham vs. Dan Hardy

I became a big fan of Rory Markham during his run through the International Fight League. Markham fights with an aggressive style that is fun to watch, and he has compiled a nice 16-4 record so far.

However, Markham isn’t the most finely skilled MMA fighter and has shown lapses in nearly all of his fights that an opponent could capitalize on.

Dan Hardy has an equally impressive 20-6 record and will have all of his native Englishmen rooting for him in this fight, his second appearance in the UFC. While Hardy has also never been able to defeat top-level opponents, I think he has enough in the tank to defeat a guy like Markham.

Hardy will have a reach advantage and a slightly more refined striking game that should allow him to pick Markham apart from the outside. I don’t see either of these fighters attempting to make this a ground war, so we could see some explosive striking here.

In the end, I think Hardy will have just a little too much for Markham and walk away with the victory.

Winner: Dan Hardy


Nathan Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

While there seems to be a bit of momentum in the MMA fanbase behind Wilson Gouveia, I simply don’t see a way for Nathan Marquardt to lose this fight.

Gouveia has shown flashes of brilliance in his recent fights, but he will need a sustained, concentrated effort against Marquardt to be victorious. Wilson’s striking will not be on par with Marquardt’s and he will need to rely on his excellent jiu-jitsu game to win this match.

Nathan Marquardt’s disappointing showing in his title shot against Anderson Silva seems to have distracted MMA fans from the fact that he is one of the best middleweights of the past 10 years.

Marquardt’s striking will easily outclass anything Gouveia can throw at him, and as long as he can avoid falling prey to any submissions, “Nate the Great” should notch another victory on his record.

Winner: Nathan Marquardt


Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

Chael Sonnen is one of the “lucky” survivors of the WEC’s middleweight division. Sonnen was the reigning middleweight champion when Zuffa decided to axe the division, and was given a contract with the UFC.

Sonnen will get thrown right into the fire in the UFC as he will be matched up with the tough Demian Maia who is quickly making his case as a top contender in the division.

Depending on who you ask, Sonnen consistently flirts with a top 10 ranking at 185 lbs. Chael’s strength is definitely his wrestling background and ground game.

Unfortunately for Sonnen, fighting on the ground is probably not something anyone wants to attempt when matched up against Maia. Maia is a submission specialist who makes submitting opponents look like child’s play.

I expect Sonnen to try and keep the fight, standing against Maia as he doesn’t want to get into a grappling match against the BJJ expert. However, I don’t think Sonnen will be able to avoid the ground for a full 15 minutes and Maia should be able to secure the submission at some point in the fight.

Winner: Demian Maia


Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Like most Brazilians, Paulo Thiago’s strength lies in his grappling skills. Thiago has spent his whole career fighting in Brazil, and simply has not faced any opponents near the caliber of Josh Koscheck, or anyone else in the UFC for that matter.

Koscheck is simply too skilled in too many areas of someone like Paulo Thiago to handle. Koscheck’s wrestling is superb, his grappling is strong, and his striking continues to improve each time he steps into the Octagon.

Look for Koscheck to test his hands through the first round and feel Thiago out. If “Kos” doesn’t like what he sees on the feet he can always take Thiago down easily and win the fight on the mat.

Winner: Josh Koscheck


Undercard

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb—Winner: Brian Cobb
Junior dos Santos vs. Stefan Struve—Winner: Stefan Struve
Neil Grove vs. Mike Ciesnolevicz — Winner: Mike Ciesnolevicz
Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham—Winner: Evan Dunham
Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz—Winner: Paul Kelly