Is Putting the Key to Winning 2012 Open Championship?

At least the majority of Open Championship winners at Royal Lytham and St. Annes have been great putters.  David Duval, in his prime, had a great feel for the greens. Seve Ballesteros never met a putt he couldn’t make. And Bobby Locke and Bobby Jones were both renowned as superb putters.

Tom Lehman, while known more for ball-striking, was always a good enough putter. Bob Charles won 80 times around the world, and with that many victories, he had to be able to putt. Tony Jacklin was a breakthrough player for Great Britain in his time, and he was the first Brit to win the US Open since 1924, but no one mentions his putting.  

But great putters have won at this year’s Open Championship venue. So, to identify who might win this week, we have to look at who can putt.   

Leading putting on the PGA Tour inside 10 feet is Luke Donald. Eight places back is Tiger Woods, ninth. In 38th place, Phil Mickelson. Rory McIlroy isn’t even on the list, so he must not have enough rounds or he’s worse than 184th, which is unlikely.

The putting leader inside five feet is Louis Oosthuizen. Jim Furyk is third. Donald is fifth. Woods is 26th and Phil Mickelson is 29th. So at a venue which has historically smiled on good to great putters, does Woods need to resurrect his putting touch to win? Does he need to be better than Donald or Oosthuizen?

While stats are nice, stats don’t win majors; players do. And every one of the plethora of categories for putting now available via Shotlink has a different leader. So the best thing is to ask yourself, in your mind, who is the currently the best putter? And who plays well in cool, damp conditions? 

Unless you have been asleep for the last three years of golf, you have to think of McIlroy, Donald, Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker—the guy who spends his winters in Wisconsin—with maybe a nod to Graeme McDowell.  

According to press reports in Great Britain, there has hardly been a summer. That has produced a lot of lush turf on fairways and, unfortunately, in the rough. And the weather is not improving any time soon according to local reports that call for “spells of heavy showers—for the remainder of this week.”

Woods has already told the British press that the rough, “in some places it is almost unplayable." The last person to talk bout unplayable rough was Phil Mickelson who injured his wrist at Oakmont a month before the last US Open held there.

But that gives us more clues as to who will do well. Golfers who play well in rain suits—a stat missing from any tour category—could be the most important intangible.

Darren Clarke succeeded last year in really nasty weather. Mickelson was second. Dustin Johnson was third. Rickie Fowler was fifth. Tom Watson, who might be one of the best mudders ever, was 22nd.  Johnson, Fowler and Mickelson are all streaky good putters, and Watson is in the field. But Watson will need to be ahead at the 18th because while he used to be a great putter, he isn’t any more. Don’t look for Clarke to do anything exciting. Last year’s Open Championship is the cherry on his career sundae. 

Another key to predicting who might do well this week is that Royal Lytham is a par-70 course with quirky scorecard and layout. The first hole is a long par three, 205 yards. There are three par threes and one par five with a par of 24 on the front and one par three and one par five for a par 36 on the back. 

The back nine at Lytham finishes with six consecutive par fours, from 357 to 467 yards, not overly long and none going the same direction. The wind will be different on every hole. Only two of those six holes are straight, and the rest have doglegs. 

In addition, Lytham has protection from more than 200 bunkers, an average of 11 per hole. Since there are four par threes and it’s unlikely that a par three would have 11 bunkers, that means some holes have more. The nines are not returning, meaning they don’t come back to the clubhouse at the ninth and 18th, just at the 18th.    

From the standpoint of the long hitters, there is one other number that is important at Lytham, and that is par. The course has a par of 70 that gives the long hitters two fewer opportunities for birdie.

Woods fans should note that his Open Championship victories have come only on par-72 courses, and one reason is that his length has always been an advantage for him for making birdie on par fives.  But just as it gives Woods less advantage, it gives other long hitters who count on birdies on par fives less advantage. It also equalizes the playing field for the medium hitters. 

Does this mean you should downgrade Woods, Dustin Johnson and Mickelson and upgrade Zach Johnson, Stricker and Donald? Maybe. But Royal Lytham and St. Annes is also the place where Ballesteros won the championship by making a birdie on the 16th hole after hitting into a car park off the right side of the fairway. 

In other words, it’s the Open Championship. Anything can happen. If you don’t believe that, just ask Darren Clarke.