Major League Baseball Preview (Part 2): The Variables

Predicting sports is never an exact science. I have been trying to predict college football and major league baseball seasons for 10-plus years.  

It wasn’t until this past college football season that my No. 1 and No. 2 preseason picks actually played each other in the national championship game. And I consider myself as someone who knows what they’re talking about when it comes to these two sports.  

So, for the first time, I am going to publicly state that my preseason baseball picks are likely to be wrong, mainly because in every season there are variables. Variables are things that happen that no one could or would have predicted.  

You know, kind of like the Tampa Bay Rays going to the World Series, or the Arizona Cardinals going to the Super Bowl, or the Utah Utes defeating any SEC team in the Sugar Bowl.

So, I am going to try to predict the unpredictable. These will be ridiculous statements that I will probably catch a lot of flack for, which is why these statements did not show up in my actual preview.

Here are 10 variables that COULD happen in the 2009 baseball season:  

1. The Atlanta Braves could win the NL East. From top to bottom, the Braves have the deepest and most experienced starting rotation in the National League. When 300-game winner and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine is your No. 5 starter, you have a deep rotation. The main reason I didn’t mention this in my preseason preview is because of Atlanta’s offense. Atlanta has no big bopper in middle of the lineup. But even though they traded Mark Teixiera in July of last season, the Braves ended up second in runs scored while their outfielders combined for only 27 homers. Jeff Francoeur is destined for a breakout year in '09. Too bad we said the same thing about him in '08. One thing is certain and that's if Atlanta misses out on the playoffs, it will not be because the pitching staff let them down.

2. The San Francisco Giants may surprise everyone! This could happen, especially if the Giants sign Manny Ramirez or trade for a run-producer soon. The youngest and best starting rotation in the NL resides by the Bay. Tim Lincecum is the best young pitcher in the game. Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito could prove to be the best rotation in baseball this season. The Giants are just one big hitter away from being the favorite to win the weak NL West

3. 2009 might be “The Year” for the Cubbies. No one is going to predict it, but this might just be the end of the last 101 years. The Cubs boast one of the best starting rotations in the game and unlike the top two points I made, they actually have the offense to back it up. Couple that with the fact that their only competition in the NL Central is a young Cardinals team and the Cubbies should make the playoffs with no problem. It’s just what happens when they get there that’s the problem. This year, I expect bigger things from Zambrano. I think he’ll win the Cy Young and lead this star-studded rotation into the playoffs. The Cubs should have the best record in the National League this season, and if so would get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Once again no one will predict it, nor should they, but the Cubs' chances are getting better every season. Why not this year?!

4. The Rays are on the verge of greatness. I expect the Rays to be deadlocked with the Red Sox and Yankees all season long. I think the $ox and Yank$ are going to win the division and the wild card, but as long as the Rays are up there, anything could happen. These guys reminded me of the ‘91 Braves last year. And we all know how that ended up. The Rays are young, talented, and potentially great. The Yankees and Red Sox rosters are loaded with potentially injury-prone veterans. If either of those top two teams experience a rash of injuries or a drop in production, the Rays will be right there to take their place. And once they do, the Rays may never look back.

5. Can we expect more from the Reds this season? The Reds are quietly putting together a formidable young rotation to go along with a young, potent lineup. If the Reds played in a pitcher’s park instead of the Cracker Jack box they play in now, this could be a strong year for them. I think there is a very good possibility that the Reds could challenge the Cardinals for second in the NL Central this year. Once again, it's something I would never predict or expect, but if you are a Reds fan, you might be pleasantly surprised with the team’s improvement this year.

6. Speaking of the AL Central, I believe that division could go to either of the top two teams. The Twins and Indians are about as even as any two teams in the game. Behind Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, the Indians could really make some noise this season. And they are another team that actually has the offense to help the pitchers out. The Twins are young and talented as well. Justin Morneau could win another MVP and even though Mauer has faced injuries lately, expect him to come back strong in the Metrodome’s final season. This race might come down to the final weekend.

7. If the Rangers could only pitch, they could compete with the Angels in the AL West. Texas is one of the best-hitting teams in the game every year, but they can’t seem to get it together in the pitching department. It's a fact that is hard to believe when you consider that Nolan Ryan is calling the shots down there. In their defense, that stadium is ridiculous. It brings new meaning to the term “The Launching Pad.” But if the Rangers can put together a decent combination of their starting pitchers, the potential to challenge in the division is there.  

8. The Marlins might fall way back again. The Fish have once again undergone a makeover and now even some of their young bright spots are gone. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are the foundation of this team and are capable of leading the Marlins to the top three of the East. But their supporting cast will not help that fact at all. I think the Marlins could take a serious step back and will probably have a new manager in 2010.

9. The Mariners should get better, but probably not enough to make any noise in the AL West. If there’s one thing I have found recently, it’s that the Mariners have a devoted following. I have to commend their fans for being vocal and proud of their franchise. But you simply cannot expect a team that lost 101 games last year to challenge the Angels. It just will not happen. Sure, this team was supposed to be really good last year, but they faced a ton of injuries and lost a ton of games as a result, a lot like the Atlanta Braves did in ‘08. But the Braves went out and got better during the offseason. The Mariners did not, unless you consider Russell Branyan a difference maker. They have a great young rotation of largely unproven pitchers and decent lineup. The Mariners will get better in that they might only lose 85-90 games.

10. “The 103” may shock the life out of some teams. For the most part, the fans are sick and tired of hearing about steroids. I know I am. But if someone like Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guererro, or Carlos Beltran is outed, it could seriously have an effect on those players and their teams. It was actually a blessing in disguise for A-Rod’s name to be leaked before Spring Training. If A-Rod’s name would have come out in April or May of this year, the New York fans would have booed and hissed him all the way back to the clubhouse, and some of them still may. But for the most part, the home fans will cheer and stand behind A-Rod simply because of the timing of the report. “The 103” will not be so lucky. Those guys and their respective teams will face backlash from media, fans, and some teammates especially if there are big names involved.

There will probably more than ten variables this year, but these are the top 10 that are most likely to happen in my opinion. Go ahead, let me know how crazy I am, but when you do, make sure you leave your ideas on some things that you think could happen as well.