Projecting the Field of 65: The South Alabama Effect

Wow. That's all that can be said about Monday's conference tournament games. First, Middle Tennessee State beats top-seeded South Alabama in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Tournament. Then, San Diego (on its home court) defeats No. 1 seed Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship game.

There is little doubt that both Gonzaga (with wins over Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, UConn and St. Mary's) and St. Mary's (with wins over Drake, Oregon and Gonzaga) will make the Big Dance, which means that USD's victory last night decreases the number of spots for bubble teams by one.

But what about South Alabama's at-large chances?

Will the Jaguars steal another spot? And while we're at it, what shot does VCU have after failing to win the Colonial Tourney? Let's compare these two teams to my final 12 at-large recipients (before the USD win) they will be competing against for the last couple spots.

Team             Record     RPI     SOS     Top 50     Top 100     Last 10     Road/Neutral

Arkansas         20-10     42       40         4-5         7-6             5-5              5-9

UMass             21-9       40       66         2-2         6-6             7-3             10-6

Kentucky         18-11     48       12         4-7         5-10           8-2              4-7

Oregon            18-12     53       30         4-8         7-10           6-4              6-9

Ole Miss           21-9       43       61         5-4         7-4             5-5              7-7

Dayton            20-9       34       41         2-3         9-5             5-5              6-6

Syracuse         19-12      46        7          2-8         7-10           5-5              5-7

Texas A&M      21-9        47       57         4-6         7-9             5-5              6-5

Arizona St       19-11      76       77         5-6         7-9             5-5              6-7

Ohio State       19-12      49       21         3-9         7-10           4-6              5-9

Baylor             20-9        33       31         3-8         7-9             5-5              9-5

Arizona           17-13       29       2          5-7         10-11          3-7              7-7

South 'Bama    24-6        37      127        3-2         4-3             8-2              9-5

VCU                24-7        54      155        0-2         3-3             8-2             12-6

VCU has pretty much no shot thanks to its mediocre RPI and terrible SOS. Teams with no top 50 wins have made the field in the past, but according to kenpom.com, since 1999, no team with less than four top 100 wins has been selected as an at-large.

South Alabama has more of a claim, mostly thanks to its 71-67 home win over Mississippi State back on December 15. Since then, the Jaguars have just two wins against the top 100, both over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers themselves have just one top 100 victory and will probably fall out of the top 50 if they fail to beat Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt final.

People are quick to point out that South Alabama also has close losses to Mississippi and Vanderbilt as another reason why they should be included in the field of 65. But these same analysts fail to mention near misses by other bubble teams such as Baylor's three-point loss to Washington St. or Syracuse's two-point losses to Georgetown and Connecticut. That being said, the Jaguars had less opportunities to pick up marquee wins.

In the end, South Alabama is hanging its hat entirely on the Miss St. win because without that, the Committee wouldn't have any proof that the Jaguars are capable of defeating a NCAA caliber team. Is one win enough? It was for Texas A&M in 2006 when a two-point home victory over #8 RPI Texas on March 1 was the only reason the Aggies earned a 12 seed. But that was a more impressive win much later in the season.

I think right now, South Alabama is the first team out, right ahead of Arizona who also fell out of the field when San Diego knocked off Gonzaga. The bad thing for the Jaguars, however, is that they have no more games left to play their way back into the tournament. But that doesn't mean that they're dead. First round losses by the likes of Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon or Syracuse could put So. Alabama right back in the Dance.