British Open Odds 2012: Early Betting Lines for Top Americans at Royal Lytham
With the celebration of the queen's Diamond Jubilee, a Brit reaching the finals of the Wimbledon for the first time in more than half a century and the 2012 Summer Olympics, the United Kingdom has been in the news quite a bit lately.
British golf fans hope to keep this run alive with the victory of a U.K. resident at this week's British Open. The three top-ranked golfers in the world are all U.K. residents, and three of the past ten majors have been won by the British.
Yet despite the run of success by our neighbors across the pond, there are a number of American golfers who have a strong chance of hoisting the Claret Jug.
Six of the top ten ranked golfers are American, including three-time Open winner Tiger Woods and the winners of the past three majors (though Webb Simpson, winner of the U.S. Open, will not compete at the British Open).
Here we look at the odds given by handicappers at both British gaming company Ladbrokes and VegasInsider.com for the U.S.'s top competitors at Royal Lytham.
Keegan Bradley
1 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 80/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 60/1
Keegan Bradley had never played in a major and had won only one tournament before he won the 2011 PGA Championship.
Though his victory immediately established him a contender to watch, Bradley's been up and down since then. After some strong rounds early in the 2012 season, Bradley hasn't finished better than 20th since the Shell Houston Open in April, missing three cuts in the process.
Bradley is an exceptionally talented young golfer with a very well-rounded game, capable of both deep drives (average of 301.3 yards this year) and solid accuracy (27th on the Tour in greens in regulation percentage).
Bradley has proven that he's capable of winning a major, something many of his far more accomplished rivals cannot lay claim to. Still, he's going to have to turn in strong performances in a few more majors and rack up a few more Tour wins before he's viewed as more than a longshot by handicappers.
Jason Dufner
2 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 40/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 40/1
Until he wins his first major, Jason Dufner will always be trying to live down his collapse at the 2011 PGA Championship.
Dufner came close at this year's U.S. Open, finishing in a tie for third place, his third top five finish at a major in as many years. Dufner's won two tournaments this year, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April and HP Byron Nelson Championship in May.
Dufner has been on fire lately, and no one is heading into the Open playing better than Dufner. In his past five tournaments, he only finished outside of the top five in one, and has finished a combined -19 in the past three tournaments.
Handicappers likely will not have much faith in Dufner until he proves that he's capable of closing out a major. His outstanding recent play makes him far more likely to win than the handicappers are giving him credit for.
Rickie Fowler
3 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 33/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 40/1
Rickie Fowler was known better for his attention grabbing outfits and dubious facial hair than his golf game until he came out of nowhere to finish in a tie for fifth place at the 2011 British Open. Fowler then failed to make much of an impact at the PGA Championship, but 2012 has been a very good year for the young golfer.
Fowler has climbed to the ranking of 20th in the world, largely as a result of his May victory at the Wells Fargo Championship. Fowler followed up on that success by finishing in second and fifth at the following two PGA tournaments.
He struggled a bit at this year's U.S. Open, finishing in a tie for 41st, but the difficulty of the course and the conditions at the Open have caused handicappers to view his result, along with those of many others, with some degree of skepticism.
Fowler is still very young (23), but he is quickly gaining experience—this will be the 11th major in which he has competed. His game is still very much a work in progress, but he has the tools and raw talent to make a strong run for the Claret Jug if he can put it all together at Royal Lytham.
Dustin Johnson
4 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 33/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 40/1
Few drive the ball as long as Dustin Johnson, who has consistently ranked amongst the longest drivers on the tour. This skill won't be as big of an advantage at Royal Lytham as it is elsewhere, as the course favors accuracy more than distance.
Johnson is more than just a deep driver.
He has won six PGA Tour tournaments in his pro career, including this year's FedEx St. Jude Classic, and has four top ten finishes in majors since his major debut at the 2008 U.S. Open. Johnson's best major effort was at last year's open, where he finished in a tie for second.
Johnson missed the cut at this year's U.S. Open, and has been far off the leader in the last two tournaments he played in. Still, Johnson has four top ten finishes this year, and is poised to make a run at this year's British Open title.
Zach Johnson
5 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 100/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 80/1
Zach Johnson has won two PGA Tour events this year, the Colonial in May and the John Deere Classic this past weekend. He has been a deadly putter this year, and his accuracy from the tee box has been well above average.
Johnson last made a serious run at a major title at the 2010 PGA Championship, his only close call beside his 2007 Masters victory. He's played well this year, and missed his only cut of the year last March at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Johnson's seen as a longshot, and he clearly doesn't pose the same threat as golf's most elite. Yet he is a serious contender and deserving of better odds than the handicappers have given him.
Matt Kuchar
6 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 40/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 50/1
Matt Kuchar's had a rough time at majors in his career. In the first 17 majors he played in between 1998 and 2009, Kuchar missed the cut 13 times and finished in the top 20 online twice.
2009 marked a turning point for Kuchar. He won the second PGA Tour tournament of his career (his previous win was in 2002) and followed it up the next year with a win at Barclays and two top 10 performances at majors. Kuchar continued to play well in 2011, and this year won the Players Championship and finished in a tie for third place at the Masters.
Kuchar has not missed a cut all year, and rarely has been out of the top 25. He has five top 10 finishes in 14 tournaments, and most recently finished in a tie for eighth at Travelers.
At 34 years old, Kuchar is becoming the golfer he has long had the potential to be, and a win at Royal Lytham is far from out of the question.
Hunter Mahan
7 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 40/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 40/1
Through the 2010 season, Hunter Mahan seemed to be getting close to winning his first major. His first strong performance at a major came at the 2007 British Open, where he finished in a tie for sixth place.
He then missed the cut in three of the four majors in 2008, but finished in the top 10 at two majors in 2009. After a tie for eighth place at the 2010 Masters, Mahan missed the cut at the U.S. Open, had two mediocre performances at the British Open and PGA Championship, and then missed the cut at the first three majors in 2011.
Mahan has looked better since his major slump, finishing in a tie for 12th at this year's Masters and in a tie for 38th at the U.S. Open. He won two tournaments this year, the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and the Shell Houston Open, and tied for eighth at his most recent tournament, the AT&T National.
Mahan is deadly accurate from both the tee box and the fairway, though he's shown some trouble in the sand this year, a concern for anyone playing at Royal Lytham.
Mahan's not the strongest contender at this year's Open, but neither is he the weakest, and 40/1 seems reasonable.
Phil Mickelson
8 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 33/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 40/1
Phil Mickelson's recent troubles on the links have been widely reported, and it seems that Lefty may have overextended himself.
After a decent, if unspectacular, early start to the season in which he won at Pebble Beach and finished in a tie for third at the Masters, Mickelson has hit a rough patch. He withdrew from the Memorial Tournament after an atrocious first round, finished in a tie for 65th at the U.S. Open, and missed the cut at Greenbrier.
Yet it would be unwise to completely count Lefty out. His putting has improved dramatically from last year, and no one bounces back from adversity more easily than Mickelson.
The British Open has been Lefty's weakest of the majors. He has only finished in the top 10 twice, by far the least of any of the majors, and he finished outside the top 25 both times he played at Opens at Royal Lytham. Lefty came close to winning his first Claret Jug last year, when he tied for second behind Darren Clarke.
Mickelson is one of the most difficult golfers to handicap. Mickelson's reduced schedule since the U.S. Open should help free him from some of his recent difficulties.
He's looked pretty bad lately, but never count Lefty out.
Steve Stricker
9 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 50/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 50/1
Despite his eight PGA Tour wins in the past three years and No. 14 ranking, Steve Stricker hasn't finished in the top 10 at a major since 2009. Between 2006 and 2009, Stricker was a mainstay on the leaderboards at majors, and it seemed that it was only a matter of time until he won his first.
Though he's had numerous top 20 performances since his sixth place finish in the 2009 Masters, the 45-year-old may be seeing his dreams of a major slipping away from him.
Yet lack of major success aside, Stricker is still playing excellent golf.
He won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions earlier this year, and won both the Memorial Tournament and the John Deere Classic last year. He has missed only a single cut this season, and last year featured no cuts and only one withdrawal.
Few golfers are more consistent than Steve Stricker, and handicappers believe he is a longshot due to his lack of success at majors. Yet Stricker has proved time and time again that he is always a threat to win a tournament, and the chance of him winning the Open is better than the 50/1 odds suggest.
Bo Van Pelt
10 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 100/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 60/1
Despite the fact that he made his first appearance at a major in the 2004 U.S. Open, Bo Van Pelt did not become a regular presence at major tournaments until 2010, when after sitting out the Masters he made the cut in the year's three remaining majors. The next year, he had his best performance and still only top 10 performance at a major at the 2011 Masters.
Though he's often in the hunt on the last day of tournaments, Van Pelt has only once won a PGA Tour event, the 2009 U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee—he has also won once each on the Nationwide Tour and Asia Tour.
Van Pelt is a longshot to win at the British Open, but he has played excellent golf this year.
He has seven top 10 finishes on the Tour this year (including the unofficial Tavistock Cup), including a second place finish at this month's AT&T National. His drives are a near perfect balance of power and accuracy, and his putting has been one of the best on the Tour this year.
Van Pelt is a longshot due to his lack of tournament wins and success at majors, but he offers an interesting sleeper pick to win at Royal Lytham.
Bubba Watson
11 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 50/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 50/1
How does a golfer with four PGA Tour wins in the past three seasons, including the most recent Masters, fall to 50/1 odds at the British Open—a longer shot than a golfer with a single Tour victory (Rickie Fowler)?
Miss the cut at the U.S. Open.
Yet despite Watson's rough couple days at Olympic, a tournament that stymied many of golf's best, Watson is playing outstanding golf this season. Aside from his Masters victory, he finished in second place at three tournaments, including the last tournament he played in, and turned in two more top five finishes.
He's missed only two cuts this year, and is first on the Tour in driving distance, greens in regulation percentage, and par breakers.
Watson is known for his overpowering driving distance, but Royal Lytham favors accurate drivers over bombers, and Watson is 119th in the tour in driving accuracy. Still, his play has been superb this year, and he looked great in his most recent tournament.
Watson's driving accuracy raises some red flags, but he deserves more than 50/1 odds, and might be the most underrated golfer in the tournament.
Tiger Woods
12 of 12Odds at Ladbrokes: 6/1
Odds at VegasInsider.com: 4/1
It comes as a surprise to exactly no one that Tiger Woods, as usual, is the favorite to win at Royal Lytham.
Woods has won three British Opens, though it has been six years since he took home the Claret Jug. He tied for 25th the last time that the Open was played at Royal Lytham in 2001, losing to David Duval.
Though Woods hasn't won a major since the 2008 U.S. Open, it's easy to overlook how well he has been playing lately.
He's won three tournaments this year, including the AT&T National earlier this month, and also finished in a tie for second at the Honda Cup. He's the Tour money leader, the FedEx Cup point leader, has the best scoring average on the tour and is ranked fourth in the world.
Most handicappers believe it's just a matter of time until Tiger wins another major, and this year's Open is as good an opportunity as any.

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